Investment Disclaimer:

• I am not a registered investment, legal, or tax adviser or a broker/dealer, and all opinions expressed by me are from my research for educational purposes only.
• Past performance presented here is not an indicator of future performance.
• This post expresses my own opinion about the cryptocurrency mentioned herein and is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the cryptocurrency mentioned in this post.
• I do hold a long position in Polygon (MATIC) as a token holder.

1A. Top 3 Good News for MATIC HODLERS !!!

• A New Layer 2 Bridge Between Polygon and Arbitrum Is Launching
  Statistic as of 2021-12-11 04:18 AM EDT: 54 positive votes, 2 negative votes
  
  (Extracted from Crypto Panic)
  
  
• Whales Added 1,899,990 MATIC to Their Holdings in Last 24 Hours
  Statistic as of 2021-12-11 04:18 AM EDT: 46 positive votes, 2 negative votes
  
  Two of WhaleStats' top 1,000 Ethereum wallets just bought 900,000 and 999,990 MATIC tokens, respectively.
  
  (Extracted from Crypto Panic)
  
  
• MATIC Soars to a 6-Month High Following Announcement of New Javascript Library
  Statistic as of 2021-12-11 04:18 AM EDT: 43 positive votes, 0 negative vote
  
  (Extracted from Crypto Panic)

1B. Top 2 Bad News for MATIC HODLERS !!!

• Polywhale Team Abandon $100 Million Project Amid Scam Allegations
  Statistic as of 2021-12-11 04:18 AM EDT: 0 positive vote, 14 negative votes
  
  (Extracted from Crypto Panic)
  
  
• Biggest DeFi Hack? PolyNetwork Exploited for $600M in ETH, BNB, and USDC
  Statistic as of 2021-12-11 04:18 AM EDT: 1 positive vote, 14 negative votes
  
  PolyNetwork has become the latest victim to hackers with a record-breaking amount of over $600 million stolen.
  
  (Extracted from Crypto Panic)

2. How Matic Performs Relative to Other Cryptos ?

As of 10 Dec 2021, Matic has made a cumulative return of 14,186.41% since Jan 2020 and 583.17%  since Jan 2021. It is currently the 8th greatest performing crypto asset since Jan 2021 as compared to the other cryptocurrencies presented above.

3. Technical Analysis on Matic

3.1. Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

VWAP is a technical indicator used by a trader to gauge the overall trend of an asset price movement. VWAP line (orange line) represents the volume-weighted average price (average price here is defined as the average of high, low and close prices) while close price line (blue line) represents the price when MATIC is closed at the end of every single day. 

Whenever blue line (close price) is above orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is gaining momentum and being traded higher than its average price level. This would represent a 'buy' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'sell' opportunity, anticipating that the price of MATIC (blue line) to fall to its average level (orange line).

Whenever blue line (close price) is below orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is losing momentum and being traded lower than its average price level. This would represent a 'sell' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'buy' opportunity, anticipating that the price of MATIC (blue line) to rise to its average level (orange line).

As of 10 Dec 2021, VWAP is suggesting that MATIC trading volume and trading momentum are on par with their averages.

3.2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

MACD is often used by trader as a momentum indicator. There are 2 lines that form the above charts, namely MACD (12, 26) lines and Signal(9) line, while the histogram is calculated by subtracting Signal (9) from MACD (12,26). Histogram would fall to the negative territory whenever MACD (12, 26) is trending at a lower level than Signal (9) and rise to the positive territory whenever MACD (12,26) is trending at a higher level than Signal (9).

MACD (12, 26) is computed by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) of MATIC closing price from its 12-day EMA. 
Signal (9) on the other hand is calculated as the 9-day EMA of MACD (12,26). 

As MACD (12, 26) goes higher away from Signal (9), it signifies that MATIC is gaining momentum and whenever it goes trends at a lower level than Signal (9),it signifies that MATIC is losing momentum. 

As of 10 Dec 2021, MACD is suggesting that MATIC trading volume and trading momentum are on par with their averages.

3.3. Bollinger Band

Bollinger band is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. Its chart made up of 4 lines, namely:

- SMA (20) (blue line), which is the 20-day simple moving average price of MATIC
- Upper Band (orange line), which is computed by adding 2 standard deviations of MATIC on SMA (20)
- Lower Band (red line) , which is computed by subtracting 2 standard deviations of MATIC from SMA (20)
- Close (green line), which is the daily closing price of MATIC

Whenever close line (green) touches the lower band (red), it indicates that MATIC is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever close line (green) touches the upper band (orange), it indicates that MATIC is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 10 Dec 2021, Bollinger Band is suggesting that MATIC is neither oversold nor overbought.

3.4. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

Just like Bollinger Band, Relative Strength Index is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. There are 2 psychological levels, i.e. 30 and 70 in RSI. Whenever the RSI reaches 30, it indicates that MATIC is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever RSI reaches 70, it indicates that MATIC is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 10 Dec 2021, RSI is suggesting that MATIC is oversold in the short 14-day trading window.

Based on the technical analysis presented above, quantdoge is bullish on MATIC, but I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision. 

4. Matic Risk Profile

Based on the 100-day 95% historical Value-at-Risk (VaR) profile of Matic defined above, MATIC seems to trade at a similar risk level on 10 Dec 2021 as compared to 10 days before on 30 Nov 2021, with its biggest pullback being seen at -19.38% on a single day during the last 100 days. However, I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision.

5. Monte Carlo Price Simulation for Matic

How did quantdoge simulation perform vs the actual MATIC price movement over the last week ?

Over the last 7 days, MATIC is trading near the median (i.e. 50th percentile) path of quantdoge simulations, indicating that MATIC was neither oversold nor overbought.

6. Google Trends Analytics

6.1. Keyword: Polygon Matic

"polygon matic" reached its peak in Google Search on 2021-05-16 with a Google Score of 100
Over the last quarter, "polygon matic" Google Score has increased 100.0 % from 32 to 64
Over the last 6 months, "polygon matic" Google Score has increased 236.84 % from 19 to 64

Based on the Google Trends Analytics this month, "polygon matic" is most sought after in Latvia, follow by Singapore then Estonia.

6.2. Keyword: Matic Network

"matic network" reached its peak in Google Search on 2021-05-23 with a Google Score of 100
Over the last quarter, "matic network" Google Score has increased 32.14 % from 28 to 37
Over the last 6 months, "matic network" Google Score has increased 70.11 % from 21.75 to 37

Based on the Google Trends Analytics this month, "matic network" is most sought after in Singapore, follow by Nigeria then Turkey.

7. Developer Activity Analytics

Fork

Fork refers to the amount of time where the Github repo of current cryptocurrency is being copied. Higher fork number could mean that this cryptocurrency project is getting more interest in the developers community who likes to explore more on the deep technical of this project.

MATIC forks increased 172.73% from 55 to 150 in the past year.

Star

Star refers to the number of developers who bookmark the Github repo of current cryptocurrency. Higher star number could mean that this cryptocurrency project is getting more general interest in the developers community.

MATIC stars increased 304.4% from 91 to 368 in the past year.

Subscriber

Subscriber refers to developers who subscribed to the Github repo of current cryptocurrency. Higher subscriber number could mean that this cryptocurrency project is getting more general interest in the developers community.

MATIC subscribers increased 61.29% from 31 to 50 in the past year.

Pull Request

Pull request contributor refers to developer who has made a successful improvement/ modification on the Github repo of this current cryptocurrency project. Higher number of pull request contributors could mean that there is a high number of commitment given by developers to this cryptocurrency project.

However, a low number also could mean that the developer community of this project applies a strict standard when it comes to code review, so only developers who have published a high quality code with highly impactful features got approved.

MATIC pull request contributors increased 13.33% from 15 to 17 in the past year.

If you like my analysis and articles, please follow me at @quantdoge for daily updates.