Investment Disclaimer:
- I am not a registered investment, legal, or tax adviser or a broker/dealer, and all opinions expressed by me are from my research for educational purposes only.
- Past performance presented here is not an indicator of future performance.
- This post expresses my own opinion about the cryptocurrency mentioned herein and is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the cryptocurrency mentioned in this post.
1A. Top 3 Good News for RUNE HODLERS !!!
- THORChain Jumps 35% on Ethereum Trading Restart
Statistic as of 2021-11-10 06:22 AM EDT: 6 positive votes, 0 negative vote
Thorchain’s native RUNE token rallied 35% Thursday after trading interoperability with the Ethereum network was re-enabled. While the rally has since cooled off, RUNE is still trading up over 27%.
(Extracted from Crypto Panic)
Details: https://cryptobriefing.com/thorchain-jumps-35-on-ethereum-trading-restart/?utm_source=main_feed&utm_medium=rss - Erik Voorhees Bets on Ethereum DEXs, THORChain
Statistic as of 2021-11-10 06:22 AM EDT: 7 positive votes, 2 negative votes
ShapeShift has gone from a centralized exchange to adopting a full DEX aggregator model. The platform has aggregated various Ethereum DEXs and cross-chain trading via THORChain according to its CEO, Erik Voorhees.
(Extracted from Crypto Panic)
Details: https://cryptobriefing.com/erik-voorhees-bets-ethereum-dexs-thorchain/ - Thorchain Surges 17% Leaving DeFi Tokens In Its Wake
Statistic as of 2021-11-10 06:22 AM EDT: 4 positive votes, 0 negative vote
The price of RUNE, the native token of decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol Thorchain, has surged ahead double-digits despite two major hacks in July.
(Extracted from Crypto Panic)
1B. Top 2 Bad News for RUNE HODLERS !!!
- Thorchain suffers $8 million loss by hacker wanting to ‘teach lesson’
Statistic as of 2021-11-10 06:23 AM EDT: 3 positive votes, 16 negative votes
Cross-chain swap platform Thorchain has been exploited for a further $8 million today but it could have been far worse.
(Extracted from Crypto Panic) -
$5M in Ethereum Lost in THORChain Exploit
Statistic as of 2021-11-10 06:23 AM EDT: 1 positive vote, 7 negative votes
An attacker discovered a vulnerability in THORChain’s Chaosnet. It’s been estimated that they took around $4.9 million.
(Extracted from Crypto Panic)
Details: https://cryptobriefing.com/5m-in-ethereum-lost-in-thorchain-chaosnet-exploit/
2. How Thorchain Performs Relative to Other Cryptos ?
As of 09 Nov 2021, Thorchain has made a cumulative return of 17,789.83% since Jan 2020 and 114.48% since Jan 2021. It is currently the 15th greatest performing crypto asset since Jan 2021 as compared to the other cryptocurrencies presented above.
3. Technical Analysis on Thorchain
3.1. Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
VWAP is a technical indicator used by a trader to gauge the overall trend of an asset price movement. VWAP line (orange line) represents the volume-weighted average price (average price here is defined as the average of high, low and close prices) while close price line (blue line) represents the price when RUNE is closed at the end of every single day.
Whenever blue line (close price) is above orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is gaining momentum and being traded higher than its average price level. This would represent a 'buy' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'sell' opportunity, anticipating that the price of RUNE (blue line) to fall to its average level (orange line).
Whenever blue line (close price) is below orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is losing momentum and being traded lower than its average price level. This would represent a 'sell' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'buy' opportunity, anticipating that the price of RUNE (blue line) to rise to its average level (orange line).
As of 09 Nov 2021, VWAP is suggesting that RUNE is losing momentum.
3.2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
MACD is often used by trader as a momentum indicator. There are 2 lines that form the above charts, namely MACD (12, 26) lines and Signal(9) line, while the histogram is calculated by subtracting Signal (9) from MACD (12,26). Histogram would fall to the negative territory whenever MACD (12, 26) is trending at a lower level than Signal (9) and rise to the positive territory whenever MACD (12,26) is trending at a higher level than Signal (9).
MACD (12, 26) is computed by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) of RUNE closing price from its 12-day EMA.
Signal (9) on the other hand is calculated as the 9-day EMA of MACD (12,26).
As MACD (12, 26) goes higher away from Signal (9), it signifies that RUNE is gaining momentum and whenever it goes trends at a lower level than Signal (9),it signifies that RUNE is losing momentum.
As of 09 Nov 2021, MACD is suggesting that RUNE is losing momentum.
3.3. Bollinger Band
Bollinger band is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. Its chart made up of 4 lines, namely:
- SMA (20) (blue line), which is the 20-day simple moving average price of RUNE
- Upper Band (orange line), which is computed by adding 2 standard deviations of RUNE on SMA (20)
- Lower Band (red line) , which is computed by subtracting 2 standard deviations of RUNE from SMA (20)
- Close (green line), which is the daily closing price of RUNE
Whenever close line (green) touches the lower band (red), it indicates that RUNE is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever close line (green) touches the upper band (orange), it indicates that RUNE is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity.
As of 09 Nov 2021, Bollinger Band is suggesting that RUNE is neither overbought nor oversold.
3.4. Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Just like Bollinger Band, Relative Strength Index is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. There are 2 psychological levels, i.e. 30 and 70 in RSI. Whenever the RSI reaches 30, it indicates that RUNE is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever RSI reaches 70, it indicates that RUNE is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity.
As of 09 Nov 2021, RSI is suggesting that RUNE is neither overbought nor oversold.
Based on the technical analysis presented above, quantdoge holds a neutral stance on the short-term price outlook of RUNE, but I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision.
4.Thorchain Risk Profile
Based on the 100-day 95% historical Value-at-Risk (VaR) profile of Thorchain defined above, RUNE seems to trade at a higher risk level on 09 Nov 2021 as compared to 10 days before on 30 Oct 2021, with its biggest pullback being seen at -21.49% on a single day during the last 100 days. However, I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision.
5. Price Simulation for Thorchain
How did quantdoge simulation perform vs the actual RUNE price movement over the last week ?
Over the last 7 days, RUNE has been trading below the median of quantdoge simulations, indicating that RUNE was neither oversold.
6. RUNE Community Analytics
Number of RUNE Followers In The Past 24 Months
During the past 24 months, Thorchain followers have grown 476.47 % from 1,449 to 8,353 on Reddit.
Monthly increment of Thorchain Twitter followers peaked on May 2021.
Number of RUNE Followers In The Last 30 Days
In the last 30 days alone, Thorchain followers have grown 6.69 % from 116,900.0 to 124,719.0 on Twitter and grown 12.03 % from 7,456 to 8,353 on Reddit.
Daily increment of Thorchain Twitter followers peaked on 22 Oct 2021 and its daily increment of Reddit followers peaked on 02 Nov 2021.
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