Investment Disclaimer:

• I am not a registered investment, legal, or tax adviser or a broker/dealer, and all opinions expressed by me are from my research for educational purposes only.
• Past performance presented here is not an indicator of future performance.
• This post expresses my own opinion about the cryptocurrency mentioned herein and is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the cryptocurrency mentioned in this post.
• I do hold a long position in XRP as a token holder. 

1A. Top 3 Good News for XRP HODLERS !!!

• 445 Million XRP Moved by Ripple and Anon Whale as XRP Price Expected to Spike in April 2022
  Statistic as of 2022-01-04 09:42 AM EDT: 24 positive votes, 1 negative vote
  
  (Extracted from Crypto Panic)
  
  
• XRP Users Move Funds Away from Exchanges as Inflows on Crypto Market Increase
  Statistic as of 2022-01-04 09:42 AM EDT: 17 positive votes, 4 negative votes
  
  (Extracted from Crypto Panic)
  
  
• SEC’s XRP Lawsuit: Crypto Analyst Says “We Should All Be Rooting for Ripple To Win”
  Statistic as of 2022-01-04 09:42 AM EDT: 13 positive votes, 2 negative votes
  
  (Extracted from Crypto Panic)

1B. Top 3 Bad News for XRP HODLERS !!!

• XRP to Be Delisted by Yet Another Canadian Exchange
  Statistic as of 2022-01-04 09:42 AM EDT: 4 positive votes, 26 negative votes
  
  (Extracted from Crypto Panic)
  
  

• 40 Million XRP Moved to Binance Exchange and Sold Immediately
  Statistic as of 2022-01-04 09:42 AM EDT: 3 positive votes, 18 negative
  
  (Extracted from Crypto Panic)

• Ripple Unleashes 1 Billion XRP from Escrow as 2022 Kicks Off
  Statistic as of 2022-01-04 09:42 AM EDT: 3 positive votes, 13 negative votes
  
  (Extracted from Crypto Panic)

2. How Ripple Performs Relative to Other Cryptos ?

Performance of All Cryptos Under Quantdoge Watchlist in 2021 (Sorted by % Return)

XRP has undergone 289.98% return from USD 0.2205 to USD 0.8599 since 01 Jan 2021. XRP is the 21th best performing crypto assets among others here.

3. How Resilience Ripple Is Towards Bitcoin Crash Relative to Other Cryptos ?

Historically, all altcoins are somewhat dependent on Bitcoin price movement and it’s often the case where if Bitcoin falls, most altcoins would follow.

Top 3 Cryptos That Are Most Resilient To Bitcoin Crash During Each of BTC 4 Largest Crashes in 2021

XRP has proven resilience against BTC crash in 0 out of the 4 instances.

During the last 4 BTC market crashes,
When BTC dropped by -13.47 %, XRP returned -32.06 % at 20 May 2021,
When BTC dropped by -13.13 %, XRP returned -9.15 % at 22 January 2021,
When BTC dropped by -12.16 %, XRP returned -12.84 % at 13 May 2021,
When BTC dropped by -11.39 %, XRP returned -20.37 % at 22 June 2021
           

4. Technical Analysis on Ripple

4.1. Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

VWAP is a technical indicator used by a trader to gauge the overall trend of an asset price movement. VWAP line (orange line) represents the volume-weighted average price (average price here is defined as the average of high, low and close prices) while close price line (blue line) represents the price when XRP is closed at the end of every single day. 

Whenever blue line (close price) is above orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is gaining momentum and being traded higher than its average price level. This would represent a 'buy' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'sell' opportunity, anticipating that the price of XRP (blue line) to fall to its average level (orange line).

Whenever blue line (close price) is below orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is losing momentum and being traded lower than its average price level. This would represent a 'sell' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'buy' opportunity, anticipating that the price of XRP (blue line) to rise to its average level (orange line).

As of 03 Jan 2022, VWAP is suggesting that XRP is losing momentum.

4.2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

MACD is often used by trader as a momentum indicator. There are 2 lines that form the above charts, namely MACD (12, 26) lines and Signal(9) line, while the histogram is calculated by subtracting Signal (9) from MACD (12,26). Histogram would fall to the negative territory whenever MACD (12, 26) is trending at a lower level than Signal (9) and rise to the positive territory whenever MACD (12,26) is trending at a higher level than Signal (9).

MACD (12, 26) is computed by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) of XRP closing price from its 12-day EMA. 
Signal (9) on the other hand is calculated as the 9-day EMA of MACD (12,26). 

As MACD (12, 26) goes higher away from Signal (9), it signifies that XRP is gaining momentum and whenever it goes trends at a lower level than Signal (9),it signifies that XRP is losing momentum. 

As of 03 Jan 2022, MACD is suggesting that XRP is losing momentum.

4.3. Bollinger Band

Bollinger band is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. Its chart made up of 4 lines, namely:

- SMA (20) (blue line), which is the 20-day simple moving average price of XRP
- Upper Band (orange line), which is computed by adding 2 standard deviations of XRP on SMA (20)
- Lower Band (red line) , which is computed by subtracting 2 standard deviations of XRP from SMA (20)
- Close (green line), which is the daily closing price of XRP

Whenever close line (green) touches the lower band (red), it indicates that XRP is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever close line (green) touches the upper band (orange), it indicates that XRP is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 03 Jan 2022, Bollinger Band is suggesting that XRP is neither overbought nor oversold.

4.4. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

Just like Bollinger Band, Relative Strength Index is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. There are 2 psychological levels, i.e. 30 and 70 in RSI. Whenever the RSI reaches 30, it indicates that XRP is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever RSI reaches 70, it indicates that XRP is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 03 Jan 2022, RSI is suggesting that XRP is oversold in the short-term 14-day average window.

Based on the technical analysis presented above, quantdoge is neutral on the XRP outlook, but I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision. 

5. Ripple Risk Profile

Based on the 100-day 95% historical Value-at-Risk (VaR) profile of Ripple defined above, XRP seems to trade at a similar risk level on 03 Jan 2022 as compared to 10 days before on 24 Dec 2021, with its biggest pullback being seen at -13.38% on a single day during the last 100 days. However, I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision.

6. Price Simulation for Ripple

How did quantdoge simulation perform vs the actual XRP price movement over the last week ?

Over the last 7 days, XRP is trading below the median quantile of all quantdoge simulations, indicating that XRP is slightly undervalued.

7. XRP Community Analytics

Number of XRP Followers In The Past 24 Months

During the past 24 months, Ripple followers have grown 148.33 % from 942,532 to 2,340,609 on Twitter and grown 64.74 % from 208,315 to 343,184 on Reddit.

Monthly increment of Ripple Twitter followers peaked on Jun 2021 and its monthly increment of Reddit followers peaked on Feb 2021.

Number of XRP Followers In The Last 30 Days

In the last 30 days alone, Ripple followers have grown 2.65 % from 2,280,166 to 2,340,609 on Twitter and grown 0.95 % from 339,946 to 343,184 on Reddit.

Daily increment of Ripple Twitter followers peaked on 09 Dec 2021 and its daily increment of Reddit followers peaked on 09 Dec 2021.

8. Google Trends Analytics

Ripple reached its peak in Google Search on 2021-04-11 with a Google Score of 19
Over the last quarter, Ripple Google Score has decreased 6.25 % from 4.0 to 3.75
Over the last 6 months, Ripple Google Score has decreased 11.76 % from 4.25 to 3.75

Over the last month, ripple is most saught after on Google from Aland Islands, followed by St. Lucia and Guyana.

9 Developer Activity Analytics

Fork
Fork refers to the amount of time where the Github repo of current cryptocurrency is being copied. Higher fork number could mean that this cryptocurrency project is getting more interest in the developers community who likes to explore more on the deep technical of this project.

Ripple forks increased 14.16% from 1,151 to 1,314 in the past year.

Star
Star refers to the number of developers who bookmark the Github repo of current cryptocurrency. Higher star number could mean that this cryptocurrency project is getting more general interest in the developers community.

Ripple stars increased 12.41% from 3,601 to 4,048 in the past year.

Pull Request
Pull request contributor refers to developer who has made a successful improvements/ modifications on the Github repo of this current cryptocurrency project. Higher number of pull request contributors could mean that there is a high number of commitment given by developers to this cryptocurrency project.

However, a low number also could mean that the developer community of this project applies a strict standard when it comes to code review, so only developers who have published a high quality code with highly impactful features got approved.

Ripple pull request contributors are stagnant at 28 in the past year.

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