Investment Disclaimer:

• I am not a registered investment, legal, or tax adviser or a broker/dealer, and all opinions expressed by me are from my research for educational purposes only.
• Past performance presented here is not an indicator of future performance.
• This post expresses my own opinion about the cryptocurrency mentioned herein and is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the cryptocurrency mentioned in this post

1. Top 3 Good News for ADA HODLERS !!!

• Cardano (ADA) is on track with its “digital transformation” of Ethiopia
  Statistic as of 2021-11-02 08:44 AM EDT: 84 positive votes, 4 negative votes
  
  This month, the IOHK team, headed by Charles Hoskinson, has been in Africa meeting entrepreneurs and politicians in a bid to further the Cardano cause. 
  
  (Extracted from CryptoPanic)

• Cardano ($ADA) Founder Charles Hoskinson Signs MOU With Government of Burundi
  Statistic as of 2021-11-02 08:44 AM EDT: 76 positive votes, 4 negative votes
  
  Charles Hoskinson, Co-Founder and CEO of IOHK, the company responsible for building Cardano ($ADA), announced yesterday (October 26) that he had signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the government of the Republic of Burundi.  An MOU is “an agreement between two or more parties outlined in a formal document.” Although “it is not legally binding”, it […]
  
  (Extracted from CryptoPanic)

• Hoskinson says Hydra is a necessity, as Cardano is going to get enormous traffic
  Statistic as of 2021-11-02 08:44 AM EDT: 67 positive votes, 11 negative votes
  
  Cardano, one of the most promising ecosystems has witnessed a significant amount of traction over the years. Different upgrades, not only in the U.S. but around the world have aided its native token ADA to surge up to 1500% YTD. Here’s what you can expect from this platform in the coming few months. In the […]
  
  (Extracted from CryptoPanic)
  
  

2. How Cardano Performs Relative to Other Cryptos ?

As of 01 Nov 2021, Cardano has made a cumulative return of 5888.35% since Jan 2020 and 1122.45%  since Jan 2021. It is currently the 4th greatest performing crypto asset since Jan 2021 as compared to the other cryptocurrencies presented above.

3. Technical Analysis on Cardano

3.1. Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

VWAP is a technical indicator used by a trader to gauge the overall trend of an asset price movement. VWAP line (orange line) represents the volume-weighted average price (average price here is defined as the average of high, low and close prices) while close price line (blue line) represents the price when ADA is closed at the end of every single day. 

Whenever blue line (close price) is above orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is gaining momentum and being traded higher than its average price level. This would represent a 'buy' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'sell' opportunity, anticipating that the price of ADA (blue line) to fall to its average level (orange line).

Whenever blue line (close price) is below orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is losing momentum and being traded lower than its average price level. This would represent a 'sell' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'buy' opportunity, anticipating that the price of ADA (blue line) to rise to its average level (orange line).

As of 01 Nov 2021, VWAP is suggesting that ADA has lost significant momentum over the last few weeks. 

3.2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

MACD is often used by trader as a momentum indicator. There are 2 lines that form the above charts, namely MACD (12, 26) lines and Signal(9) line, while the histogram is calculated by subtracting Signal (9) from MACD (12,26). Histogram would fall to the negative territory whenever MACD (12, 26) is trending at a lower level than Signal (9) and rise to the positive territory whenever MACD (12,26) is trending at a higher level than Signal (9).

MACD (12, 26) is computed by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) of ADA closing price from its 12-day EMA. 
Signal (9) on the other hand is calculated as the 9-day EMA of MACD (12,26). 

As MACD (12, 26) goes higher away from Signal (9), it signifies that ADA is gaining momentum and whenever it goes trends at a lower level than Signal (9),it signifies that ADA is losing momentum. 

As of 01 Nov 2021, MACD is suggesting that ADA has lost significant momentum over the last few weeks. 

3.3. Bollinger Band

Bollinger band is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. Its chart made up of 4 lines, namely:

- SMA (20) (blue line), which is the 20-day simple moving average price of ADA
- Upper Band (orange line), which is computed by adding 2 standard deviations of ADA on SMA (20)
- Lower Band (red line) , which is computed by subtracting 2 standard deviations of ADA from SMA (20)
- Close (green line), which is the daily closing price of ADA

Whenever close line (green) touches the lower band (red), it indicates that ADA is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever close line (green) touches the upper band (orange), it indicates that ADA is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 01 Nov 2021, Bollinger Band is suggesting that ADA has been oversold over the last week and is now trading at an undervalued position.

3.4. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

Just like Bollinger Band, Relative Strength Index is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. There are 2 psychological levels, i.e. 30 and 70 in RSI. Whenever the RSI reaches 30, it indicates that ADA is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever RSI reaches 70, it indicates that ADA is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 01 Nov 2021, RSI is suggesting that ADA has been oversold over the last week and is now trading at an undervalued position.

Based on the technical analysis presented above, quantdoge holds a bullish view on the short-term price movement of ADA, but I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision. 

4. Cardano Risk Profile

Based on the 100-day 95% historical Value-at-Risk (VaR) profile of Cardano defined above, ADA seems to trade at a higher risk level on 01 Nov 2021 as compared to 10 days before on 22 Oct 2021, with its biggest pullback being seen at -12.37% on a single day during the last 100 days. However, I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision.

5. Price Simulation for Cardano

How did quantdoge simulation perform vs the actual ADA price movement over the last week ?

Over the last 7 days, ADA has been trading at below the median of quantdoge simulations, indicating that ADA was oversold.

6. ADA Community Analytics

Number of ADA Followers In The Past 24 Months

During the past 24 months, Cardano followers have grown 344.09 % from 154,514.0 to 686,181.0 on Twitter and grown 757.01 % from 75,552 to 647,487 on Reddit.

Monthly increment of Cardano Twitter followers peaked on May 2021 and its monthly increment of Reddit followers peaked on Jun 2021.

Number of ADA Followers In The Last 30 Days

In the last 30 days alone, Cardano followers have grown 7.64 % from 637,471.0 to 686,181.0 on Twitter and grown 3.22 % from 627,260 to 647,487 on Reddit.

Daily increment of Cardano Twitter followers peaked on 07 Oct 2021 and its daily increment of Reddit followers peaked on 28 Oct 2021.

If you like my analysis and articles, please follow me at @quantdoge for daily updates.