The week isn't over yet for Bitcoin Spot, but I'll leave this weekly analysis in advance, just to remind you where the important liquidity and macro price levels are.
In the next few hours, Hurricane Melissa will hit the area of Cuba where I live, and it's quite possible that the internet connection will fail or that weather conditions won't allow me to update the analysis for Sunday or Monday.
BTC
The drop on Friday, October 10th confirmed the price's intention and need to rebalance all the momentum of the last 7 months, when we saw 74,500 in April and reached the ATH in October.
Rebalancing means that the price needs to move at least halfway through the entire range, i.e., the 50% Fibonacci (0.5).
But the entire area between 0.5 and 0.375 is ideal for seeing the price react... because this is where the highly temporal Institutional Liquidity is located, which is the only monthly imbalance in the entire range (FVG-M) and the year open (YO). At any point in this area, the price can react.
Now... If for some reason we see a daily candle close strongly below the year open (YO), this would be a first sign of weakness.
In this case, it's best to wait for the price to return above the year open, and preferably above the FVG-M.
Another important detail is timing.
If this potential move occurs before the end of October, the danger would be closing the month below the FVG-M..., and even worse if it closes the month below the annual open.
But if the move occurs in the first few days of November, then the odds increase in favor of the Bullish scenario, because it would be taking the lower monthly Liquidity and then going after the higher Liquidity... It's not 100% certain that it will happen, but the odds will definitely be in favor of the Bulls.
If you want to know what the worst-case scenario could be that could truly jeopardize Bitcoin's uptrend, then the first thing to do would be that daily candle closing below the 0.375 level where the annual open meets.
But the real terror would be losing the 0.25 Fibonacci level.
If something like that happens... it would be the preamble to a Bear Market.
Now let's look at the scenario where Bitcoin gets playful and decides to rise without confirmation, leaving everyone waiting.
The best-case scenario is that it reaches a weekly low, even if it doesn't reach the 50% Fibonacci... this would, in some way, be a confirmation due to take liquidity.
* Remember that this week is not over yet, so you will need to confirm this week's minimum (and maximum) price at the weekly close.
The worst-case scenario is that it rises from current prices, leaving the lower weekly liquidity balance intact. If this happens, it will be difficult and risky to ride the wave, especially if you're trading futures.
In this case, it's best to trade intraday and take advantage of small movements, provided you can clearly identify an invalidation level to place the SL.
Think of the 50% Fibonacci as a time bomb or a minefield... You might be able to walk through it unscathed... but the risk involved is life or death.
In conclusion...
The price is currently in no man's land. Creating new liquidity on both sides.
Last week was one of accumulation, because it didn't reach the high or low of the previous week... And this week, as of the time of publishing this analysis, it's following the same path.
This, in simple terms, means that accumulation is followed by expansion.
In other words, Bitcoin will increase volatility significantly in the coming days, devouring everything in its path, and in a scenario like this, believe me... it's not a good idea to bet in the middle of a range.
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