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I wrote on my post “Birthday of BETFURY! And the GIFT is FOR US 🤑🎁” that I was going to talk you about the math behind the strategies (applied either to Betfury or any other platform(s) you like 😉) to try to catch as much revenue as we can, so here I am, and I’m going to talk you about certain details that you have to account to try to get some money, but always be careful: THE RISK EXISTS NO MATTER WHAT! 

First, we should talk about how casinos, either physical or virtual, either fiat ones or crypto ones, make money, cause guess what? they are not dumb! and there are mathematical reasons why are they still running and getting huge profits. Let’s talk about the HOUSE EDGE (which I’m gonna call h or %h if we talk in terms of percentages when we make some maths).

The house edge is basically the “commission” they take away from us every time we are playing under their rules, but is not taken every time we play, is taken on the long term, as an average, basing on simple probability and statistics rules.

Let’s start with the simplest model of a probabilistic event, a fair coin, we have tail (T) and we have head (H), so, what is the probability of getting T?...

… exactly 1 out of 2 (or 50%)

Let’s assume that you bet 100 satoshi and get paid 200 satoshis (100 sats of profit) for every time you get T and 0 sat (lose 100 sats) for every time you get H. That means on every coin toss your “expected income” is:

100 sat (0.5) - 100 sat (0.5) = 0 sat

It means that, on average, on the long run, you would have no losses nor earnings, but now, let’s assume that you get paid 196 sat per 100 sat betted (96 sat of profit or 1.96 multiplier) and, of course you lose 100 sat when you lose, then “the expected value” for those odds are:

(96 sat)(0.5)-(100 sat)(0.5) =48 sat - 50 sat = -2 sat

So, for every 100 sat that you bet, on the long term, you will lose 2 sats PER BET, or a -2% of your bank roll per every bet on the long run, and that’s the secret commission of the casinos, that’s the h, which in this case is 0.02 or 2%. And that was an example from the coin flip game that Betfury has, that’s why I choose that 1.96 multiplier, but the house edge calculation can be applied to any lucky game that the platform and that any casino or gambling site has. In general, to calculate the house edge you apply this formula:

Where m_b is the bet multiplier and p_w is the probability on winning that bet, that formula can be derived from the expected value per bet, like this:

That’s the way to calculate h for games with binary probabilities, let’s make an example with the dice game:

The roll under 35 option has a mw=2.8000 with a pw=0.35, let’s find out the house edge for that option (in general, for this dice game, all of them have the same h):

(2.8)(0.35)=1-h

0.98=1-h

1-0.98=h

h=0.02 or h%=2%

You will see that the sames apply to the roll over 35 option:

(1.5312)(0.64)=1-h

0.97997=1-h

h=1-0.97997

h=0.02003 or h%=2.003%

Let’s take a look at what happens to our bank roll of 100 unit bets (which can be for practice purposes, 1 satoshi per bet) after 1000 plain bets with either option:

In theory, the expected value to be lost would be 20 bet units, but remember that is just one simulation in each case, if you do at least 500 simulations and average them I can tell you that it would be near 20 (or a 2% of house edge). And that applies to any roll over or roll under option you choose, and the more rolls and the more simulations you make, the higher the accuracy around the 2% mark.

Now do you believe me that the house always wins? I want to make that clear so you can have your mindset ready for the next lessons, which are gonna be about:

Plain strategies to optimize the “mining” on BFG tokens (dice based)

Progressive strategies to mine BFG and earn satoshis (dice based)

Getting stats and data from other games like Plinko, Crash, Keno and so on

Applying strategies on pages besides Betfury

And always remember, it’s important to recall that:

ALL OF THEM HAVE RISKS INVOLVED! SO BE CAREFUL WITH THIS

Disclaimer: All the information displayed above is product of pure empiricism and math curiosity, please be responsible with the game and gambling, avoid addiction as much as you can, remember to make a balance about everything.

Last self-sponsoring here: JOIN BETFURY AND ENJOY A FREE 25 SATOSHI AIRDROP EVERY 20 MINUTES!!