It's not news that the global economic situation is far from ideal; wars, inflation, and debt have become increasingly common around the world, leading to rising interest rates to attract investment capital, further exacerbating the difficulty of global financing...
This is an introduction that could have been made at any time in recent months and years, and it remains true. Recently, we had the release of a result that 92% of the market already expected, but which continues to be impactful, even though it was predicted: the increase in interest rates in the US.
There was a 0.25 percentage point increase in the basic interest rate in the United States, now ranging between 3.75% and 4%. This value may not seem like much to some people, but it's worth noting that financing for anything in the US has rates around 7-8%, which greatly impacts the mortgage market.
Part of the reason is related to the unstable global scenario with wars in the Middle East impacting the distribution of oil around the world due to the straits and a decrease in production, considering the risks, causing the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil to be above $100, whereas a few months ago it was around $60-70.
It is worth remembering why oil is so impactful on interest rates, because the price of gasoline rises, the price of what depends on this energy rises, impacting transportation and inflation.
Along with this, we also have the constant rise in public debt and inflation, causing the price of the 30-year US Treasury bond to reach 2007 levels of 5.34%, as investors, faced with this entire scenario of uncertainty, are demanding a higher return to finance the debt.
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Impacts of the Economic Scenario on Bitcoin and Investments
When interest rates and US Treasury bonds rise to high levels, as has been happening, it's normal to expect global liquidity to flow into Treasuries, since there's a preference for US risk over that of their own countries' bonds or investments.
In this scenario, it would be very likely that we would see another drop in Bitcoin because investors might prefer to leave it in Treasury bonds. However, this is not what we observe with Bitcoin above $75k. It has lost the momentum that propelled it out of the 60k range, but it continues to trade in the upper range, and the reason may be diversification. With all the uncertainty and the points mentioned, both BTC and gold present themselves as alternatives.
Another detail that could have negatively impacted BTC, but which I haven't explored in detail, and which didn't affect the stable price we see, is that some legal issue related to the Clarity Act was not approved.
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