Looks like I have to eat my words on 

The Bear is Coming HARD Before Any Bitcoin All Time Highs.

Bitcoin recovered fully and hit the highs, and the market followed. Bro, I wasn't just wrong, I was dead wrong. So let's look at what happened and what I can learn from this.

$386 Million Didn't Move the Market

We got news that some whale sold $386 million worth of bitcoin in one day last week without really affecting the price. I got this info from Boxminer, so I don't have any firsthand info about when he sold, but apparently it was not on the day that the fall happened. So Brian Armstrong's bullshit really was the reason for the fall, but more importantly, we have more data of bitcoin as a price sponge. When whales buy in or move out, it really doesn't affect the price much.

Microstrategies and Square's announcements of multimillion dollar buys moved the market AFTER they announced, not because of their buys. With this new $386 million sale not moving the market either, I think this adds to the theory I put forward in the article

Why Retail Buyers Drive Bitcoin Price Even When They Don't Buy Bitcoin

that RETAIL is really driving market movement.

Anticipating the Pullback

The strategies I put forward in the article

How to Anticipate a Bitcoin Pullback

seemed to hold true for calling this recent pullback. What's important is to determine whether that pullback is like a slow flash crash or a real correction. In this case, it seemed to be more of a slow flash crash in response to that sissy Brian Armstrong's pussy ass bullshit and possibly the China confiscation.

I say "slow flash crash" because they recover quickly and resume whatever trend was happening. There was no trend break in the bitcoin bull using the 20-day MA as the standard. On the monthly chart, it still looks like bitcoin's flying a bit too high, but we didn't go back to $15k like I thought we would. Why did I think that? Now I believe the reasoning was more emotional. Like, there's no WAY the market can be this good for this long. (I didn't really participate in the 2017 bull run.) I still believe we will pay those dues, but if bitcoin goes sideways for a few weeks after hitting all time highs, the MA will rise and the drop won't be as bad.

I still also believe that bitcoin will pull back if there is huge FUD in the traditional markets. Crypto has not yet fully decoupled from tradfi stocks. If the government pulls some regulation out of its ass that the market decides it cares about, it's back to the 20-day MA. I give us credit, though. We've had announcements of a DOJ regulatory framework, plenty of politicians expressing a deep desire to regulate crypto, and the price still marches up save this slight hiccup.

Government Faggitry

The government will overreact if bitcoin marches its way to $30K too quickly. At that price, bitcoin starts creating trillionaires with no connection to US government and full sovereignty of their finances. People become countries. If we see that, you can expect some kind of full stop measure from the government like a US ban or illegalization of trade. Any crypto exchange that touches the US will get shut off, at least temporarily. Binance US and Coinbase users, watch yourself, especially if we get an unstoppable bull.

Learning from Success

I learned from my success as well. Even though I reset my portfolio to withstand the bear, I didn't sell all of my alts or anything. So right now I'm not profiting as much as I would have if I was leveraged to the hilt. But I'm also not missing out on these profits completely. That's a success that I will remember and use in the future.

Man, was I wrong. Damn! Way to go, folks.