So we took a little Christmas shit on Xmas Eve, but then after that we shot for the moon. We've barely had time to digest last week's videos about BTC hitting $24k before the bitcoin price shot up to almost $25k. By the time you read this, we might have passed it.

This is twice now that bitcoin should have taken a huge correction and didn't — it just keeps going up. The longer-term moving averages are a bit higher, but they haven't caught up yet. If technical analysis finally brings us back to earth, we could be looking at a $15k bitcoin again at some point. Right now, we could fall to $15,000 and still be in a bullish pattern.

I have stated that moving to $20k too quickly could be bad for the space, and I stand by that. With more information now, I must amend my statement a bit. I believe it will be bad for the idiots who are buying Paypal's bitcoin for them, not for people who actually understand private keys and sovereignty. We're actually going to be ok, I think. Once the noobs realize how much they could be doing with their BTC that they can't do because Paypal siloes BTC, there are going to be a lot of angry idiots.

As long as you understand there probably will be a big fall before anything close to $50k or $100k, you're going to be ok.

But how much more are we going up before we go down? Nobody wants to sell out of a parabolic move too early. So let's look at some of the differences in this cycle and the last.

• The bitcoin supply is drying up fast. Bitcoin is moving off of exchanges even as institutional investors buy up bitcoin at unheard of rates. The opposite was actually true in 2017. People were bringing their bitcoin on the big exchanges to sell it. Retail is holding now, and big money is still buying. That's bullish as fuck.
• Big money is buying above $20k. Many institutional investors seem to be FOMOing in like sloppy retail buyers. This may or may not put a floor underneath the price depending on how much powder these institutional idiots leave on the side. They must also consider that their investors won't really tolerate 20 and 30% losses for too long before they force capitulation. However, bitcoin is a market that a few whales can control. Institutions are now incentivized to keep the price up for the rest of us, because it covers their asses.
• More bitcoin is being bought than mined. The overall supply, not just the supply on exchanges, is drying up. This is price action 101 — when demand outpaces supply, #numbergoup. That simple.
• Retail has yet to enter the space. This is actually a lie. Retail is coming in through the institutions. In 2017, you got the big pump and dump because individuals were speculating on their own. This time, they are being more careful with their entries by doing it through Microstrategy and Square. They think this is more sophisticated, but it isn't. The larger point is that retail actually is in the space, but the crazy gamblers that cause huge FOMO green candles haven't returned quite yet.
• We have more information now than in 2017. We have a general idea of where the world is going in the next few years — Great Reset politics, digital currencies in the West, general debasement of the worldwide standard of living in the short term. People are slowly finding out that crypto is the only solution to this stuff. Analysts can now make defensible predictions about how digital currencies will fit into the world's future financial narrative.

All in all, I'm saying that $25k is not a fluke. BTC deserves to be here, and it could be a legitimate pump that holds. I'm also saying don't get too happy. Bitcoin tends to surprise everyone.