On Sunday, May 4, bitcoin (BTC) was trading near the $95,000 mark, and the exchange rate has increased by about 1.5% since the end of last week. The specialist analyzed the market situation and assessed the prospects for the movement of the bitcoin exchange rate for the next seven days.

"The market lacks new drivers"

(Vladislav Antonov, Financial Analyst at BitRiver)

The week from April 28 to May 3 turned out to be volatile: bitcoin fluctuated in the range of $92,800 – $97,895 and ended the period around $96,000, adding 2.37%.

In the early days, BTC unsuccessfully tested the resistance of $95,500 three times, gaining a foothold near it on April 28. The support of $92,800 was confirmed the next day.

On April 30, the exchange rate dropped to $94,172, reflecting a 0.3% drop in US GDP, the first decline since 2022, worse than expected (+0.4%). Bitcoin repeated the dynamics of the S&P 500 index.

On May 1, bitcoin broke through $95,500 and reached $97,424. The technical picture indicated a growth potential of $100,000. On May 2, the exchange rate reached $97,895, but growth slowed by the end of the week. On May 3, the BTC/USDT pair fell back to $96,000.

Key events of the week:

• US GDP in the first quarter decreased by 0.3% against the growth forecast of 0.4%, this is the first decrease since 2022. The indicator increased fears of a recession.
• The US labor market added 177,000 jobs in April, but the data for the previous two months was revised down by 58,000, indicating a slowdown.
• The PCE index rose to 3.6% from 2.4% a quarter earlier, increasing the risks of stagflation.
• Morgan Stanley and Charles Schwab have announced the launch of crypto trading. The largest banks are preparing to launch bitcoin ETFs before the end of the year.
• Donald Trump has stated the high probability of trade agreements with China, India, South Korea and Japan.
• The yield on 2-year US government bonds dropped to 3.7%, 70 bps below the Fed's key rate, which is a signal in favor of its possible reduction.
• U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Besson stressed that the bond market sends a clear signal about the need to ease monetary policy.

According to BitRiver estimates, the technical picture remains on the buyers' side, in anticipation of a possible increase to the psychological level of $ 100,000. The key support levels are $95,500 and $93,550, with a breakdown of the latter likely to trigger a drop to $91,300.

The market lacks new drivers to continue its growth, so the possible dynamics will largely be determined by macroeconomic data and decisions of the monetary authorities in the coming days.

A number of key events are expected in the coming week that could significantly affect the market.:

May 5 — publication of the indices of business activity in the service sector and the composite index of business activity from S&P Global for April.

May 7 — FOMC meeting, at which a decision on the interest rate will be made. The rate is expected to remain at 4.50%, but comments from FOMC members may provide additional signals about future monetary policy.

May 9 — speeches by several FOMC members, including K. Waller and Fed Deputy Chairman for Supervision Barr.