For the first time since the end of February, the price of bitcoin approached $ 100,000 after the publication of the decision on the lending rate of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) and statements by American President Donald Trump about an important press conference on trade duties with an unnamed major country.
On the morning of May 8, the BTC exchange rate rose above $99.5 thousand, updating the maximum in almost three months. Ethereum returned to the level of $ 1,9 thousand. All crypto assets from the top 100 showed positive dynamics during the day, some coins added 10% or more percent. The total market capitalization grew by several percent to $3.1 trillion, according to Coinmarketcap.
On January 20, bitcoin reached a maximum of about $110,000 amid statements by Donald Trump about the support of crypto companies in the United States. By early April, the exchange rate had dropped to $75,000, having lost more than 30% of its January peak. The drop coincided with Trump's new statements about trade duties.
The market is also affected by regulatory uncertainty in the United States. According to Bitwise investment director Matt Hougan, the "crypto industry may have a "difficult summer" if Congress does not pass any of the regulatory bills".
He believes that delaying decisions can undermine the momentum gained after Donald Trump's victory. At the same time, Bitwise maintains the base forecast for bitcoin's growth to $200,000 by the end of 2025.
Reasons for growth
The growth of bitcoin quotes began at about $96.3 thousand on the evening of May 7, after a meeting of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), where it was decided to keep the key lending rate unchanged (4.5%). And it continued on the night of May 8 with about $97 thousand after Trump's publication announcing a conference on a major trade deal with an "important" country.
"Initially, the growth was caused by headlines about the resumption of trade negotiations between the United States and China on Wednesday morning [May 7], Asian time, which improved the overall market sentiment," Presto Research analyst Min Jung told The Block, noting that investors' attention is still focused on trade news headlines.
Experts note other reasons for the growth of the main cryptocurrency. BTC Markets cryptanalyst Rachel Lucas believes that the BTC price movement towards $100,000 has more fundamental factors, including the impact of bitcoin halving, the build-up of institutional infrastructure and increased macroeconomic interest in uncorrelated assets, bearing in mind that bitcoin is losing its dependence on the US stock market.
"It's not just a psychological level, it's a signal of growing conviction," Lucas said of the bitcoin price's move to $100,000.
Lucas also noted that the price momentum is accompanied by strong capital inflows into bitcoin-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs), where U.S. funds have collectively received more than $5 billion in net inflows since April 25, according to SoSoValue.
Halving is a planned and programmed event in the bitcoin code that reduces the rate of issuance of the main cryptocurrency over time.
Bitcoin-based spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) provide investors with legal access to cryptocurrency through the NASDAQ and NYSE stock exchanges. The issue of new shares requires the actual supply (purchase) of bitcoin by the funds. The demand from such ETFs provided the crypto market with a significant inflow of capital and became the driver of its growth in 2024.
Future forecasts
"Although short—term volatility and profit-taking near circular resistance levels are expected, the broader trend remains constructive," commented Lucas.
Geopolitics also plays a role in shaping the price of bitcoin, according to BitMEX exchange founder Arthur Hayes. He pointed to more important processes on the part of the US Treasury.
"The only real policy that really works is capital controls," CoinDesk quoted him as saying.
In the crypto community, it is customary to pay attention to the correlations of the M2 monetary aggregate (including the amount of cash, checking deposits, funds in settlement and current bank accounts, as well as term and savings deposits in banks) and the price of bitcoin.
Historically, since the creation of bitcoin, both charts have been highly correlated. And with the growth of the US debt, this indicator is also growing.
(Correlation graph of the bitcoin price (white graph) and the M2 aggregate (red graph). Source: Bitcoin Counter Flow)
Hayes explained that it is the flow of liquidity controlled by the Ministry of Finance, combined with the inability of the United States to "curb costs," that is the reason why by 2028 the value of bitcoin will reach $1 million.
"The real show is happening at the Ministry of Finance. Ignore the Fed. It doesn't matter. Powell [the Fed chairman] didn't matter in 2022 under the Democrats, and he doesn't matter now under the Republicans," Hayes said.
The analysts surveyed rate bitcoin's prospects as moderately positive in their forecasts for May, but warn of external risks, from new trade duties to signs of a recession in the United States. According to their forecasts, bitcoin may fluctuate in the range of $ 98-106 thousand, and the movement of the exchange rate above $ 100 thousand may be supported by signals for easing US monetary policy.
Investors are watching Donald Trump's statements about tariffs and the behavior of stock indexes.
