16 out of 20 market forecasts by the founder of the BitMEX crypto exchange, Arthur Hayes, turned out to be incorrect. Two were accurate, and two more relate to future prices and are not yet verifiable.
The Protos publication came to this conclusion after analyzing 20 market forecasts by the former head of the previously largest derivatives exchange in the crypto market.
Arthur Hayes is one of the most controversial figures in the crypto market. He is known for his long essays on the place of cryptocurrencies in the global economy, as well as his vivid forecasts.
He is also the current CIO of the Maelstrom investment fund, specializing in cryptocurrencies, and the former head of the BitMEX crypto exchange, which was the first to launch perpetual bitcoin futures.
Hayes remains one of the most well-known representatives on the crypto market. His account on the social network X has about 700 thousand subscribers, and almost every message gets more than 100 thousand views. In addition to founding BitMEX, he gained additional fame through the regular publication of essays on markets that are often quoted by cryptocurrencies and discussed in the community.
Hayes' successful forecasts include the growth of bitcoin in December 2023 amid expectations of approval of spot bitcoin ETFs in the United States, as well as a short—term reversal of the Ethereum exchange rate in October of the same year after falling below $ 1.6 thousand.
Two more of his forecasts remain open, one of them is bitcoin at $1 million by 2028. Hayes cited the inability of the United States to "curb government spending" as one of the main reasons for this growth.
In October 2020, the US authorities charged BitMEX and its founders, Arthur Hayes, Benjamin Delo and Samuel Reed, as well as the executive director of the platform, Gregory Dwyer, with violating the law: the exchange did not implement the necessary anti-money laundering (AML) system, did not conduct customer verification (KYC procedure) and served customers from the United States. without registering with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). All four pleaded guilty, received suspended sentences and agreed to pay fines.
All of them were pardoned by US President Donald Trump at the end of March 2025. As Benjamin Delo noted, according to Coindesk, the BitMEX exchange, as the most successful in its segment, as well as its colleagues, became "victims for political reasons and were used as an example" that US regulators wanted to show the rest of the crypto market.
Examples of Hayes forecasts
Despite the many erroneous predictions, Hayes himself admitted the failures of his assumptions. For example, at the end of September 2024, he analyzed eight of his latest forecasts at that time, covering the period from 2023 to the fall of 2024. Unfortunately, only six of them turned out to be correct.
"It's pretty bad for the average person," Hayes commented on his results.
Here are some of the recent predictions that have not come true.
On September 6, 2024, Hayes announced that bitcoin would "go under $50,000. this weekend," and announced the opening of a short position. Then the price fell only to $ 52.5 thousand, and the coin began an upward movement — in December, the price of bitcoin exceeded $ 100 thousand for the first time.
In early January 2025, Hayes predicted the peak of the crypto market in March, but the maximum capitalization of the cryptocurrency market fell on January 20, the day of Donald Trump's inauguration. And by March, the capitalization of the crypto market was about 30% lower than the peak in January.
Already in March, the founder of BitMEX made a bet that bitcoin would grow to $110 thousand before it touched $76.5 thousand again. But already in April, the quotes dropped below $ 75 thousand, and the projected $ 110 thousand. They were not reached, according to Coinmarketcap on May 14.
Another unfulfilled growth forecast affected several tokens at once, including BIO, VITA, ATH, GROW, PSY, CRYO and NEURON.
In early January, in one of his regular essays, Hayes noted the prospects of these tokens — since the beginning of the year, they have all lost from 28 to 89% in price.
