To Trade or Not To Trade?

To Trade or Not To Trade?

By Jelly Fish | cryptofun | 23 Nov 2020


Last week I made an article to tell wannabe miners about Cryptotab's "browser mining". I don't know if any of them took my article seriously, and honestly, I don't care, it's simply neither my business nor my electricity bills. However, I thought if I made an article on mining, why shouldn't I make an article on trading? After all, in my life, I spent like 1.5 or 2 years on mining, but nearly twice as much on trading (from the late 1990-s up to the 2007/2008 crisis, and then now again, in crypto).

"Trading" is a really large topic, and of course I can't (and even don't want to) cover all of it in a single blog post. I'd better tell from my own experience what it takes to be a small individual trader (the one who trades on his own, with his own pennies at stake), a trading shrimp, if you will.

During my years on various internet forums, I've seen a lot of self-taught economists, alternative historians, inventors of steam-engined perpetuum-mobiles -- shortly, flocks of freaks of all feathers. And of course, on-paper traders and investors into the left side of a chart. However, I'm yet to meet someone who can tell "Oh, I practice brain surgery every Saturday, it's my long-time hobby!" or "From Youtube videos I've learned to drive a helicopter and now I take my children to school every day". Do you see what I mean? Even the dumbest freak with the wildest conspiracy theories in his head has a gut feeling, that there exist some things that must not be "self-taught" from "Youtube influencers". Those things require professional education, diplomas, qualification tests, and all that boring shit of the "regular education process". Otherwise, those things can be lethal -- literally.

Well, trading is not of those literally lethal things. That is, it's often perceived like a simple thing to do. Indeed, Buy low, sell high, that's exactly how all that trading (i.e. "speculation" and a great deal of "investment") goes, all that simple. Every monkey can read a book on "technical analysis", draw a line on a chart and call it a "trend", "support", "resistance" or whatever. Only a clinically dumb can't learn within a week how to put buy and sell orders into a trading terminal.

Quite often looking at the left side of a chart people think like this: "I will take 100 bucks, buy here, sell there, thus make 10% in a single day and will pocket 110 bucks. The next day I buy there and sell here, make another 10% a day, and pocket 121 bucks. Then the next day it will be 133,1 bucks -- and by Christmas, I will be on the Moon!"

However, it will hardly go like that. It's indeed possible to make an x10 shot blindly, but it's much less probable to make such shots consistently. It's nearly improbable to win 100% of trades, it's hardly possible to make +10% on every winning trade, and it's hard to trade all 365 days a year. Besides, trading is not a "zero-sum" game, a 10% loss is bigger than a 10% profit: $100+10% = $110, $110-10%=$99. And you also have to pay commissions... In addition, there's a shit called "risk management", and if you exercise it properly, adding another 10% to the whole depo becomes even harder. But the worst of all is that trading doesn't happen on the left side of the chart. This shit happens on the right side, on the edge of terra incognita... Shortly, no matter how simple trading may look, it's not an easy thing.

"Well, how to be a profitable trader then?", you might ask (I doubt you will, but let's pretend).

First, I'd want to point to my favorite sport of powerlifting. There a guy's made an article on what it takes to be a world champion in powerlifting. I'd say the same is pretty much true for trading as well. Trading is simply not an occupation for everyone (exactly like powerlifting, playing the violin, driving a helicopter, coding banking software, etc. is not for everyone). To be really successful, you must be a "natural born trader". In powerlifting this "natural born" concerns mainly physics, in trading it concerns mainly psychology. I'd say that really successful trading (i.e. consistently making tons of money putting your own hard-earned money at stake) requires quite a lot of tough psychological features to be joined in a person's temper: coolness, patience, quick reaction, discipline, courage, to name a few. And let us not forget about intuition and luck. In his book Mr. Jesse Livermore said that human nature is the speculator's greatest enemy. I'd add that a really successful trader must have a psychology similar to that of a pilot of a fighting helicopter on a real battlefield...

Many people would probably think that I'm exaggerating. Well, maybe I do. Actually, I wish someone could prove me wrong and tell me his secret, especially someone who doesn't confuse brains with a bull market. But until then I'd hold Mr. Livermore's words at the utmost trust.

I'd only want to add that while it's rather tough to be "the best trader in the world", it's kinda easier to be "the best trader on the block" or in other words "a bit better than average". What's needed is some psychological "training" and trading practice. And of course, it's necessary to love trading -- if you don't love your occupation, you will hardly succeed in it. Maybe it's a good idea to re-read that powerlifting guy once again.

 

Well, folks, I'm kinda tired of typing so many letters, I will probably continue some other day.

 

 

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Photo by George Morina from Pexels

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Jelly Fish
Jelly Fish

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