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Bear Hunting

Has the bear market arrived? Bitcoin Analysis - Price Targets for BTC - Portfolio Update: Here's what I'm buying

By Keeef | CryptoFactor | 9 Dec 2021

The State of Bitcoin

Should we remain bullish on Bitcoin or has the bear market arrived?  It's a big question and I hope to answer it for you today.  Over the previous week on Bitcoin has been trading almost sides but firmly without an ascending wedge formation, suffering a modest $49,000 breakdown, but with firm support sitting around $42k level.  If you take a look at the daily charts, last weekends breakdown saw previous support turn to resistance as we try and retake the $50,000 level.  

Sadly, the fact remains that all of Crypto depends on Bitcoin price and similarly, the Bitcoin price depends on wider market sentiment from traditional markets, so it's worth taking a look today at the S&P500 Markets to see what's going on and encouragingly we can see a bullish ascending wedge which typically breaks to upside. If this happens and traditional markets remain looking healthy, that will be good for the Crypto Space too.

The daily chart shows that Bitcoin is set to break out from a bullish ascending wedge visible on the daily time frame, which could lead to a healthy break out to the upside or downside, either way, I anticipate a price target of $42,000 worst-case or break out $56,000 short term.  I favour the latter bullish scenario and that we are simply in a corrective phase of a bull market.  

Ethereum vs Bitcoin

Ethereum ($ETH) has been doing very well in gaining dominance over the previous weeks, particularly after BTC broke down to retest lower levels of support last Friday.  On a daily chart, we can see the ETH/BTC dominance is growing and bullish flags are present for this trend to continue in an ascending wedge leading ultimately up to a long-anticipated 'flippening'.  The flippening means that ETH has overtaken BTC in total market cap making it the largest Crypto and more dominant market share.  

Ethereum sits at just over half the relative market share of Bitcoin but long term at 21.7% today compared to BTC's 40.7% share.  I anticipate that it could be profitable to accumulate some ETH as we near the 'flippening' zone, as when or indeed if ETH flips BTC, investors may well pile in at this event.   We are at levels of ETH/BTC dominance not seen since 2017.  

One thing worth reminding yourself of is the historical aspect of what happens we enter a bear market.  You will likely see all of those Alt-Coins without utility and backing and sadly also those meme-coins be sold off, which will likely return dominance to the major projects including Bitcoin and Ethereum, but perhaps not in equal measure.  Cardano and Polygon will also fair pretty well in my humble opinion.  

ETH/BTC Dominance

Bear Market or Bull Market

If you were to assume that we are in a bear market, then you would also have to believe that this market cycle would be unrecognisably different to any previous market cycle as long term RSI sits 50-55 level long term, and not >90 in all previous cycles.  The same story with RVI and Stochastic RSI indicators, therefore the TLDR of this question is that we are firmly in a BULL market. I know history rarely repeats, but it often rhymes.  

It is also reassuring to see what certain whales have been up to, one of the largest Whales now holds 120,000 BTC and is seemingly comfortably accurately around the $50,000 level.  That sure serve as reassurance that Whales are comfortable accumulating at these prices.  Whales are always more than happy to accumulate the Bitcoin that weaker hands a selling out of fear.  

Fun Fact: Bitcoin's largest whale currently holds 120,000 BTC worth around $5,880,000,000.  That's comparable to GDP of Montenegro.  

Portfolio Update

I have picked up more Cardano ($ADA) whilst it's on sale <$1.35 and I will also be setting some buy orders to fill around $46,000 level should structural support not hold, I will have picked up some BTC ready to sell on the bounce for a nice short term profit, if not I think we will see $105,000 as soon as Q1 2022. 

I publish regularly right here on Publish0x and on Reddit.  Please do remember that none of the above is financial advice, you should always do your due diligence.  

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