Bull Market Support Band Update - The True Value of Bitcoin - MATIC All-Time-Highs

By Keeef | CryptoFactor | 27 Dec 2021

The State of Bitcoin

Bitcoin ($BTC) managed to price in back above the 50-week moving average, in a similar way to what was observed back in July of this year. If this is anything to go by, and history rhymes (similar 9-11% bounce noted), I believe that we could see a pump back up in the weeks to come, however, true super-bullish price action is not likely to occur until BTC reclaims the $53k level, that is the lower limit of the bull market support band.  

The Bull Market Support Band, which is the combination of the 20-week SMA and the 21-week EMA puts the band at a range between $51200 and $53,000.  Until this point, it's unlikely we will enjoy any exciting price movement until this level has been reclaimed.  In previous times, that the bull market support band has been broken, it has taken 5-6 months to reclaim and find support at these levels.  I remain long-term and macro-bullish on BTC and think that the 3 upcoming and painful interest rate hikes centring on the American will fuel demand for a hedge against inflation.   

Worst case, I think we will likely find support at $40,000 if the previous support band strength holds and we are extremely unlikely to lose this level. Similarly, the best case is we retake the bull market support band in the next few weeks, and retest and hold it as support however should this not happen in the short term, we are likely looking at a whole lot of not much happening until Q2 of 2022, from where the next and likely FINAL leg of the bull market will be seen.   For now, there remains an element of fear and bearishness in the market with a marginal majority of leveraged positions going short against Bitcoin, then again it has been more than 3-weeks since we saw leveraged positions get 'rekt'.  

Lengthening Cycles and Alt-Coins

The four-year cycle theory appears to be dead at this point, market cycle top perhaps could be seen in 2022, previously I thought Q1/2, but I'm leaning toward Q3/4.  Either way, I am looking at holding long term and adding to my position in the event that we see a further correction.  We have seen new All-Time-Highs for Polygon ($MATIC) yesterday with $2.93, which I have told you about since I started blogging here.  Also, I nice little correction for my other Favourite Alt-Coins Algorand ($ALGO) and Cardano ($ADA) of which I filled up my bags during the last correction.  This does all tie in very nicely with Plan B's Stock-to-Flow musings and hints at Bitcoin remaining a good buy with its S2F value at $76k.  


Alt-Coin Gem Doing Well

Finally, I've been accumulating the low-cap Alt-Coin gem that it SocialGood $SG, anticipating continued growth.  It's possible to see an impressive and consistent increase of active wallets on-chain, and in some bizarre twist, they are offering you $200 worth of SG tokens for free without when you make a purchase via their app of at least $30.  If you're not interested in holding the ERC-20 token, you can also just swap it for ETH or sell it for fiat.   

Just a short update today, I'm still very much in Christmas mode, and the length of my article should reflect that.  I've been publishing here on Publish0x for a month now and am blown away by the engagement my posts have been getting.  If you're not following me here already, please consider doing so and I'll keep you up to date with Crypto-centric news and Technical Analysis. Please do remember that none of the above is financial advice, you should always do your due diligence. If you are interested in getting started in Crypto, there are some offers below that you might be interested in.  Thanks for reading!

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