Macro Pattern, Now for Confirmations


Alright y'all. The 2.5 month down trend just broke today. We should all know what that means, more uncertainty haha

All of the content creators are going to be saying this to some degree, I don't blame them because that's the situation we're now in. Still not out of the woods, but there's light through the trees and the fog is suddenly thinner, hopefully it's not a UFO about to abduct us and put the probes in UwUncomfortable places.

On the daily, the trend resistance level that was being rejected Thursday was about 38k. But to some hopeful surprise, and a good sign, that broke upside to a fair degree to present 40.5k level with candles closing by the hour, and soon the day, and Sunday night (for our US viewers) for the week. This is short term reversal, but this could still trend down at the flipped resistance as support into the coming months, which would be frickin' awesome imo, it's a better situation than we were in only yesterday.

Now back tests of previous levels need to be made. Approx 39k local previous price high and wobble to confirm prices, and possible (likely) back tests of the descending channel down trend, currently within prices and near term price ranges of 38k in the coming days and into next week. If it comes down and bounces again on those levels, especially daily close times Sunday and conformation markets open and closes Monday, we are short term bullish *almost* no matter what happens after this. This could clear us for the rest of the month for higher price action levels such as climbing up the 40k rungs, which I've seen plenty of people talk about, having a short term breakout with the natural back tests of relative current and recent previous price ranges. Its the longer term bounce we we've wanted and will need to fully test these potential regional macro bottom levels. 

That said, we have scheduled Fuderal Reserve meeting and the overwhelmingly likely hikes mid March (unless the markets and economy crash and burn for unforseeable black swan reasons), which the last meeting was also a momentary signal that we have a temporary breather until March. The market action the week before last also confirmed that. Stuff I'm also looking at short term, crypto.com and superbowl plastering crypto and nft's for the broad audience to see. No doubt that's probably going to get some new blood off the crypto sidelines as it officially breaks into a progressive mainstream market and audience. Imho, next weekend and the following 3rd week of the month would probably see some green no matter what precedes it. Longer term, this stuff could later spell out this month as the regional new bottom, which is exciting as hell, but we still probably have a choppy slog for especially the early and potentially mid year. If things go well we'll still be calling it choppy even if bitcoin hits 100k at some point haha. As Benji "Cryptoverse" Cowen says, paraphrasing, plan for the worst and be pleasantly surprised when it's the best. 

A breath of optimism and short term bullish actions aside, we're still in a broader season and circumstance of fud. DO NOT FORGET THAT. If this is market bottom, we probably won't know it with some certainty for months. A lot can happen, including lower lows. We've got Putin poised to keep poising like he's gonna attack Ukraine, and he also green lights an internet privateer cyber navy that could full frontal assault all of us with UFO probes at the same time, so maybe don't margin long your grandparent's reverse mortgage just yet. The present price action could just as easily reverse overnight, or Saturday, or Monday with the broader headwinds, such as with global stock markets and inflation, and especially with black swan potentials, could see this all break back down into the fud channel or break down further to hope crushing depths (which are the best buying opportunities). 

In the meantime, get yourself a nice tan in the green candlelight, as it's possible the weekend sees a short alt season catching up with the big boys price actions. Just remember, caution first. Crypto fisherman see rising Fridays as crashing Mondays especially when there's a Russian bear stow-away, but it's okay to try and come up for air, just don't take in a lung full of water.

Blahblahblah, not financial advice, I am a mere crypto fish in the turbulent crypto seas just like most of us. But imo the writing is on the wall, I just want to point it out first before I go check on what our favorite crypto authorities and opinionists have to say about the same thing so I can be a crypto cool guy too.

To the moon! Or back to the launchpad, whatever!  At least it's in the direction of the ever expanding and complexifying horizon. Long live crypto!

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CryptOdyssey
CryptOdyssey

Documenting and sharing my crypto journey in this amazing and emergent moment in its history, and ours.


CryptOdyssey2Satoshis
CryptOdyssey2Satoshis

Documenting and sharing the odyssey we are all on. Macro market 2 satoshis, politics, philosophy, history, and as much as possible on all things crypto.

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