The beginning of 2025 proved challenging for many assets, but one of them clearly stands out: copper.

Since the beginning of the year, copper has grown by about 9%, becoming one of the most successful assets in the world.

I don't trade copper myself, but its growth caught my attention — not because of the copper itself, but because of what it might say about the economy, risky assets, and, of course, Bitcoin.

Let's look at the copper/gold ratio, an interesting indicator related to economic cycles.

This ratio has been growing since November 2024. Historically, it has served as a reliable barometer of economic conditions and investor sentiment. How does it work?

• When copper outperforms gold, it usually signals an improvement in economic conditions (high demand for industrial metals).

• When gold outperforms copper, it indicates a deterioration in conditions (an increase in demand for defensive assets).

And here's what's important: this ratio is related not only to the economy, but also to the dynamics of key risky assets such as the S&P 500 and Bitcoin.

Some impressive facts:

• Since the 1990s, the S&P 500 index has never experienced a major correction (20%+) during the upward phase of the copper/gold ratio.

• All of Bitcoin's "manic rallies" occurred during upward phases. All bear markets? During the descending phases.

In other words, if the upward phase of the copper/gold ratio began at the end of 2024, history suggests that this could be a tailwind for Bitcoin and the stock market.

But... is it different this time?

This is where the questions begin. The S&P 500 index has been growing for more than two years, and Bitcoin has broken through its historical highs. Usually, such dynamics begin during the upward phase, and not before it.

And then there's China. As the world's main manufacturing center, any economic problems there can reduce demand for copper and slow down the global economic cycle.

So, while the copper/gold ratio may signal an upcoming improvement, the question remains: is history repeating itself, or is the market following a new path?

Do you think we're in for a classic upward phase, or is the market rewriting the rules?

Let's discuss it.