Every bitcoin parabolic rally has historically coincided with the same signal, and this signal is on the verge of triggering again.

The Relationship between Bitcoin and the Business Cycle

Bitcoin has always been sensitive to economic changes. Its price is closely correlated with one of the key economic indicators, the PMI (Business Activity Index).

• When the PMI is growing: Economic activity in the US is accelerating, and this tends to coincide with strong upward movements in bitcoin.

• When the PMI drops: The economy slows down and Bitcoin begins to experience difficulties.

Since 2021, the PMI has fallen from extreme highs and stayed around the 50 level for a long time, which meant there was no noticeable acceleration or slowdown in the economy. This explains why Bitcoin has shown sluggish dynamics in recent years.

But now everything is changing.

The US economy is on the verge of a new acceleration

Over the past 1.5 years, the Fed has cut interest rates, despite the absence of an official recession. This is an unusual phenomenon — this has happened only three times in the last 60 years: in 1967, 1985 and 1995.

What happened next?

• 1.5 years after the rate cut, the US economy began to accelerate, and the PMI turned up.

• These periods coincided with a recovery in the growth of assets like bitcoin.

Today we are at about the same point. If the economy starts to accelerate, it could be the catalyst for bitcoin's next bull cycle.

The Role of Oil Prices in the Future of Bitcoin

Historically, bitcoin is sensitive not only to economic data, but also to oil prices.:

• Rising oil prices slow down the economy, increase inflation, and provoke higher interest rates, which negatively affects Bitcoin.

• Stable or falling oil prices create a favorable environment for crypto.

Bitcoin's last two peaks (2018 and 2021) occurred during a time of rising oil prices. This growth has become one of the factors contributing to the end of the bull market, as high energy costs slow down economic growth.

Oil prices have now started to rise for the first time since the beginning of 2024. This is not a concern for now, but if the trend continues, it could be a risk for bitcoin in 2025.

What do you think: Will the economic acceleration coincide with the new bitcoin rally? Or will oil come back into play?