In 2017, my portfolio grew to $80,000. I felt like a genius. Then the market crashed. I didn’t understand what was happening. I panicked, got out at roughly breakeven, got upset with crypto, and walked away for a year and a half.

You know what happened next? The best accumulation phase ever. And I was sitting on the sidelines the whole time, thinking crypto was nonsense.

Now I see a familiar picture on the realized-loss chart. Since late November, the market has been systematically squeezing out weak hands. Every drop is accompanied by a wave of capitulation – people locking in billions in losses.

November – $1.78 billion. February – $2 billion. June – $1.1 billion.

These are the people who couldn’t take it anymore. They sold at a loss. They got angry at the market. Maybe they left – just like I did back in 2017.

And here’s what matters. Historically, these capitulation events coincide with local bottoms forming. When the last weak seller has handed over their coins, the downward pressure eases. It’s a natural process. Coins flow from weak hands to strong hands.

But. In a bear market, there are several such bottoms. Each one feels like the last – but another may follow. That’s why catching falling knives right now is a dangerous game.

I’m not playing the hero. I’m sitting on a significant cash position. Slowly accumulating and watching. Waiting for the cycle to sort everything out.

The one who’s getting angry at the market and walking away now will most likely miss the next accumulation phase. Just like I did in 2017. And the one who waits calmly and doesn’t jump in without a plan will come out ahead over the long run.

The psychological meat grinder is working. The main thing is not to get caught in it.