A quick recap from part I
For UBT to hit my predicated range ($10-40), the crypto ecosystem has to increase exponentially and enter a bull market which I believe we are on the brink of entering. Here is why:
- Bitcoin halvening
- Ethereum 2.0
- Decentralised Finance
- Central Banks creating digital currencies (therefore
- Facebook Libra coin
- Right place, right time
- A faltering Finance 1.0 – the blockchain backed crypto-ecoysyetm is a direct alternate
- Enterprise and Corporate porting into the blockchain backed crypto-ecoysyetm (
The basics ETH / UBT ERC-20 relationship
Most know Ethereum is the value index for erc-20 tokens. UBT is an erc-20 token.
The price of Ethereum has a direct implication on UBT. So, at the time of writing, if Ethereum was $130 per ETH and UBT was worth 0.00075 ETH then UBT is roughly $0.10. Lets say Ethereum appreciated in price by 100% and the ETH value of UBT remained the same (0.00075), subsequently UBT would approximately increase in dollar value by 100% $0.20.
This gets more complicated as we add other value pegs to the price of UBT, for instance, lets say UBT is listed on Coinbase and therefore having greater exposure to fiat currencies and bitcoin. Lets say someone purchased $2 million worth of UBT this would naturally bolster the price in dollar value but also appreciate its value in ETH and BTC. The take away in this instance is the effect of value alignment against other currencies which is all too often understated and applies when more exchanges will eventually list UBT.
Last Time Round
Most are aware, around late 2017 and early 2018 Bitcoin hit approximately $20’000 and the entire crypto ecosystem was valued at around $800 billion. A few months after it didn’t take long to conclude the entire ecosystem experienced its biggest bull market, followed by bull run infused by ‘mania’.
Obviously many investors world views were shattered after experiencing this clear bubble. But in assessing the 10 year history of bitcoin it quickly became clear these 'bear-bull-pop-cycles' are prebuilt within the ecosystem (look at nature frens' – cycles everywhere). One thing the data suggests is cycles will happen again and it will be grander and more spectacular each cycle.
If you are asking why will this happen again? just re-read the above re-cap and you will realise there is concrete-focus on in the crypto space that continues to gather momentum.
Many high profile investors have already publicly revealed how high Bitcoin will appreciate in the next cycle. Max Kaiser and Tim Draper have already written off their previous estimations of $100k per bitcoin and indicated $200k - $400k been a better estimation. Again, looking at past data and recent developments; it is perfectly reasonable to understand why.
In my opinion I believe Ethereum will play a more significant role in appreciating the entire price of the crypto ecosystem. Once the halving has concluded all eyes and intrigue will be on the launch of Ethereum 2.0 and generally the big broad strokes cast by Ethereum, ergo DeFI and Enterprise adoption- the latter leading well and truly within the remit of Unibrights core purpose.
A Simple Model
Most price speculations are based on previous form, mine is no different. Taking into account what I perceive to be a conservative estimate, I estimate Bitcoin achieving a price of $80k. In total I believe the entire ecosystem to be at least $3.5 trillion.
Considering this lets look at the coins around rank ~135 during the height of the last bull cycle (below). I am using this as comparison, because it will be fair to estimate UBT been around this region. So, for arguments sake lets say the market reaches these heights once again and UBT is in and among this range (a $240 million cap) where only 7.5 million tokens were locked up. In this instance UBT would be worth around ~$1.60.
To keep the model lean, aligned with my previous beliefs of the entire market I speculate this range been worth 4 times as much based on the natural appreciation brought about by the next cycle therefore this gives us a UBT price of ~$6.40.
Here is where it gets even more speculative.
I have been very careful not to price in the unknown market value of the ‘enterprise narrative’ which is yet to truly reach is peak among investors. I have also not factored in the full developments of 360, Freequity and future UBT features. Also unaccounted for is the impact of a major exchange listing. It would be fair to say given the tokens relative limited supply a Coinbase-pro listing could potentially '10x' the price and this could be said with a Binance listing or any of the other major exchange. Lets not forget the potential of working on other blockchains such as EOS, TRON and LIBRA where, lets say there is clear awareness by the market of Unibright providing a service for leveraging enterprise on these respective blockchains.
Therefore, even if a few of the above factors take effect I can easily see the price of UBT multiplying from the $6.40 base prediction:
So as $6.40. been my conservative base price. In a perfect world scenario where Unibright are on several major exchanges, where UBT are publicity known for leveraging enterprise on facebook Libra. Freequity is in full flow and a significant number of tokens are locked due to the purchase by enterprise clients. Lets not forget the EEA Baseline Protocol space has truly opened. Totalling all these factors easily sees the price probability hit the higher end of the above spectrum.
Fundamentally, the price is dependent on which permutations play out and when.
If all goes to plan, bearing in mind risk is managed, I am confident UBT will hit between $10 - $40 before 2022.
I have said on a few occasions I never go outside the top cryptocurrencies'. However, due to the rationale as evidenced in my articles I made an exception with UBT; I truly believe the risk to reward ratio is weighted in such a way I feel very comfortable in UBT accounting for a significant percentage of my meager portfolio.
I hope you enjoyed venturing down my thought process which rationalises the $10 - $40 prediction, as a form of appreciation all I ask is for you to kindly share my articles and educate potential investors in the what I deem the unrealised value of UBT Unibright.
My rationale around UBT and price prediction is there to be judged by time and in the fullness of time it will.
Thanks for reading.
My next articles will independently assess the comprising elements of UBT i.e. Freequity.
Also I offer thanks to Boye for the use of his very handy UBT pricetool (link in resources below). I will also tip my hat to fellow UBT members on the unofficial Unibright Telegram – Boye, Dan, Magic, Stefan, Tho, A5, Jack, Moondog, CryptoLovett, Wol, Derek, M and Crypto Bags – apologies to those I missed! If you are not in unofficial Unibright TG please feel free to join – it is good humored and a very informative group who wield logic and memes at a very high standard (link in resources below).
Libra is coming, do those tenuous UBT connections have any merit ?