What might be Ethereum’s price during the next bull run? One metric to watch is the Bitcoin to Ethereum ratio. When looking at precious metals markets forecasters look at the gold to silver ratio to detect whether a bull market has started or ended. For cryptocurrencies popular indicators include comparing market capitalizations and using the Bitcoin to Ehtereum price ratio (BTC-ETH ratio) both which are tracked by several websites eg. etherprice
The ratio of the price between BTC and ETH is an important indicator reflecting supply and demand factors of the marketplace.
My analysis derives a price target for ETH during the next bull run.
First, we can look at Bitcoins recent prices here (taking a small number of price points for the last four years):
And Ethers price over time here (taking a small number of price points for the last four years):
Since the late summer of 2015, the ratio of Bitcoin relative to Ethereum prices has been range bound wavering between 20-40 with the gap between the number one and two ranked cryptocurrencies staying within this range. Using the average ratio of 30.2 a relatively stable average of the last few year and assuming the Bitcoin bull run sees a high around $25,000 then ETH’s predicted price would be, based on the ratio, approximately $823 USD.
Other cryptocurrency analysts predict Ethereum’s price for 2020 and 2021 based on its tracking with Bitcoin. Experts give a price of $510 USD for Ethereum as a price forecast for 2020, this value is a base case price target. ETH’s bullish target was estimated at a possible $750 USD. The Ethereum price predictions for 2020 and 2021 (and beyond) are bullish. Eventually Ethereum will re-challenge its $1,000 USD price during the next bitcoin bull.
The ratio between bitcoin and ethereum suggests that during the next bitcoin bull run that ethereum will likely see a value of $800 - $1,000 USD or higher if there is significant amounts of FOMO (fear of missing out), based on its historical ratios with bitcoin.
As ETH continues forward, I expect the BTC-ETH ratio to decrease over the longer term first to high teens, and eventually into single digits. This means that the price of Ethereum will be rising at a higher velocity than Bitcoin prices. It is a bullish prediction. The longer-term price catalyst is due to continued decentralized finance project growth on the Ethereum network platform and ongoing ETH network upgrades.
One positive commonality is that given the near term upgrades to ETH 2.0, ongoing decentralized finance projects building on top of the Ethereum platform and currently (in my opinion) an undervalued Ethereum price – that most experts and forecasters all see a bright future for Ethereum close to $1,000 USD. Buying a holding ETH could yield a 10 times multiple eventually even without a bull run. Talk about easy money for those willing to buy and hold with a “forget about it for a while” attitude!
Disclaimer: No one can accurately predict with any level of accuracy what the price of ETH might be during the next bull run. Traditional forecasters use chart analysis, while technology pundits use fundamentals. But in the end we are all guessing.
The author does not hold any Bitcoin or Ethereum at the time of writing this blog post. My thoughts on future prices for BTC and ETH should not be taken as investment advice.