Bitcoin presents a graph that is quite different from those seen in traditional markets - such as the stock market - its volatility and unpredictability is frighteningly higher for several reasons. At the moment it shows a long period of uncertainty that confuses even the most seasoned analysts. This article aims to provide a detailed update of possible futures.
It can be seen from the monthly bitcoin chart that the 8-period exponential moving average (purple) sustained the price throughout the bull run and that there were only attempts to close below, but never actually closed, also note that we are currently stationary above this moving average, which means that this month is crucial in determining whether or not bitcoin maintains the uptrend.
The signals shown by RSI and MACD are also not positive.
At this point of the daily chart we can see the ratio of moving averages of 50 (black) and 200 (yellow) periods whenever there is a crossing of these moving averages a euphoria in the market, either for sale or purchase. When the crossover occurs from top to bottom (the 50 period crosses down) a death cross occurred - marked in the image above in yellow - and when the moving average of 50 periods goes upwards the so-called Golden Cross indicates a period. of appreciation.
Currently we are seeing the meeting of these two moving averages, if they cross it may mean that we are entering a new period of devaluation of bitcoin or a trap for sellers, note in the image below how this happens:
In this case what happened was a temporary appreciation that characterized two pitfalls, one for buyers and one for sellers. At first the moving average of 50 periods crossed the chart pointing a valuation and then a new crossover that stoppeded all that were bought. Shortly thereafter, the upward crossover occurred again, thus starting the bull run's uptrend.
As stated earlier we are approaching a new possible death cross. Was this the end of the bitcoin bullish cycle or just another trap? (If you take a closer look at bitcoin's death and golden cross cases you may notice a pattern that I will leave out of this analysis.)
I believe that if death crosses again it will cause a shake in the market, causing the price of bitcoin to fall and then the uptrend will return and here is why:
This graph shows the number of bitcoin wallets with more than 1,000 bitcoins (red) and the bitcoin price (black). Note that during the past bull run this number of portfolios has been decreasing over time and as the falls have been accentuating the number of portfolios has grown parabolic and we are now entering a new cycle similar to what happened in the fall until the $ 6,000. This gives us the information that whales are accumulating more and more bitcoins. As I say and repeat: we are sardines and we must follow these steps.
Evidence in the short term shows something negative in relation to price, with many factors pointing to decline even though we are still in a lateralization period. Here we identify a death cross formation that may take the price to the levels shown in my last bitcoin analysis and also that whales are accumulating more and more bitcoins giving us an indication that the price will rise again soon. The moment we're in gives us a very bad margin for swing trade but something interesting for daytrade and scalping. For holders it can be a great point to buy following the flow of whales.
Thank you for reading :D