In the last 6 months, whale addresses with at least 1000 Bitcoins have purchased approximately 1.5 million Bitcoins. Why do these whales, who increased their Bitcoin holdings from 335 thousand to 1.9 million, trust Bitcoin so much? Halving is one of the main factors that fuels interest in Bitcoin. This halving, which occurs every 4 years, has been the beginning of major bull rallies for Bitcoin in past cycles. Bitcoin, which gained 32 times in value after the halving in 2016 and more than 6 times after the halving in 2020, was last halved in April 2024.
The current Bitcoin price is still close to the levels during the halving period. In addition, Spot Bitcoin ETFs are also increasing confidence in Bitcoin. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which were approved by the SEC in January, provide the opportunity to invest in Bitcoin from US stock exchanges. This development is considered to remove the obstacles to investing in Bitcoin for US investors and also to accept Bitcoin into the traditional financial world. The cumulative asset value under management of these ETFs offered by financial institutions, including the world's largest asset management company BlackRock, is currently over $63 billion.
Bitcoin continues to gain strength against the DXY, after closing above 689 points, the bulls' footsteps will be very strong (in my opinion). Technically, the momentum in the weekly period has turned positive for the first time since June 2024. The RSI continues to stay above 50 points, positive data. The average cost of short-term Bitcoin investors, 63200, will be a critical support in a possible correction. The Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross metric shows that the price has entered a hot zone in the short term. I would not be surprised if we see a correction in the near future.
BTC touched 68900. I expect a drop from around 69800 to around 67500. I expect it to go from around 67500 to around 74000. My target is around 74000, I don't plan on going short before this point. The toughest resistance level in Bitcoin is now 84000. Above this level, the area up to 93600 is empty. The important factor will be dominance. If dominance does not fall to the 80000 - 82000 region, we will encounter a rally in altcoins above 82000. It should not be forgotten that the movement is heading towards a larger structure in the medium term. The intermediate target price expectation is 93000 - 100000, when the turmoil there is over, there is a possibility of seeing the target of 150000 - 180000, maybe 200000.
America's economy will enter the elections with a strong economy. In other words, the Democrats did their best. There will be no recession before the elections. I said in September that it will come strong with the data somehow, they will reduce interest rates. According to this projection, the election is probably around 20 days away. We are approaching the election on November 5. While global markets, except for Asian stock markets, showed a positive trend last week due to strong expectations that the economy in the US could make a "soft landing", all eyes turned to the busy macroeconomic data calendar.
The European Central Bank lowered the deposit rate to 3.25% in October. Stating that the disinflation process is on track, the ECB expects the economy to recover but warned that inflation could rise in the short term. Balance sheet announcements from Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Citigroup are expected. Wall Street indexes reached record levels with technology stocks. While the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose with chip stocks, Chinese and Hong Kong stocks fell due to the lack of expected incentives. Annual inflation in the UK fell to 1.7% in September, the lowest level since 2021.
This situation increased the possibility of a second interest rate cut as the Central Bank fell below its 2% target. After the data, the pound fell 0.4% to $1.3021. Monthly inflation remained unchanged. The US is pressuring Japan to increase its chip restrictions on China. It warned that if action is not taken, the US could impose its own restrictions. The Japanese embassy did not respond to the issue. The Chinese economy grew by 4.6% in the July-September quarter, but fell short of the 5% target. The increase in housing loans and the central bank's macro support measures are aimed at stimulating growth. President Xi Jinping called on authorities to make every effort to achieve the 5% growth target.
As of October 18, 2024, the total amount of Ethereum in accumulation addresses exceeded 19 million. In January 2024, there were only 11.5 million ETH in these addresses. Now, this amount has almost doubled and I believe the total will exceed 20 million by the end of the year. In early 2024, Ethereum Spot ETFs were officially approved, marking the beginning of a new era. Regulation has increased trust and Ethereum has now entered the mainstream and is now seen as an important part of the financial future not just for tech enthusiasts but for institutions and individuals as well.
I predict that these addresses will exceed 20 million ETH by the end of the year. While the price of Ethereum is around $4000, the total value will exceed $80 billion, making these accumulation addresses equivalent to some of the largest companies in the world. The impact of spot ETFs on this process is undeniable. Ethereum should touch 2820 and fall from here to 2640, then the target is 3200. Ethereum's 2-month downtrend is over and the movement quickly reached 2700. We now have important resistances here, 2930, when this level is exceeded, altcoins will see sharper movements and we will quickly go to the 3200 - 3500 band. I expect new highs in the medium term. If I am not mistaken, I expect this coin passion to reach its breaking point and end in the first half of 2025. The main target price expectation for Ethereum is around 8000 - 10000, and 6200 is the value of Ethereum. Any price below 6200 is cheap, and increases above 6200 are not permanent.
Brent reacted from the 68-70 region to the 80 level. However, the reaction was short-lived. The range that oil should be in is the 50-70 range. If we add inflation to this, it becomes the 60-80 range. However, apart from the risks in the future, 2025 may not be a good year for oil. I continue to meet every exit as a sale. My intermediate target expectation is $60, in the medium term it is $40 and $30. When $40 and $30 come, the technique of beating those who don't buy works.
I expect DXY to swing up to 102.90 and rise from there to around 104. DXY technically reacted from the 100 and 99 levels and we came back to the mid-range, both the strong US economy and data and the dollar requirement in the rally lifted the dollar index. There does not seem to be a problem at the moment. Technically, unless the 104-105 region is exceeded, all increases will remain as sell. The main target price expectation is $90.
The Euro - Dollar parity should touch 1.0960 and fall from there to 1.0740. The European region is in a position where it cannot do anything on its own without the dollar index and the US. The strong Euro does not suit them. If the DXY falls, some balances will be disrupted globally. The US is lowering interest rates, Europe is lowering interest rates. Both ends of this business are problematic. I would expect it to reach 1.15 before the end of this year. However, we sold at 1.13. That is why I am removing the Euro from my portfolio. For those who work in the short term, I am looking at the strategy of buying as it approaches 1.05, selling as it reaches 1.13 - 1.15, and switching to the watch if 1.15 is exceeded.
I expect GBP - USD to move up to around 1.3150, then it should fall to 1.2890. After passing the intermediate resistance in GBP - USD, we reached the top of the channel and experienced a serious sell-off. The important level here is the 1.29 - 1.2850 range. If this is not broken, the movement will turn upwards, albeit slowly. However, it should not be forgotten that there is an outflow from global currencies. If we can find support at the bottom of the channel, we will move towards the 1.36 target area.
USD/JPY should fall to 148.50 and then 151. After breaking the rising channel, we will move quickly to 139 and then 150 for a while within this band. If it goes above 152, it can tire short traders. Those who do business in the short term can apply a sell strategy as it approaches 150, and a close or buy strategy as it approaches 140.
I expect Nasdaq to open a movement area up to around 20600. There should be a decline from around 20600 to around 20200. In Nasdaq, 23000 is now inevitable, but it can create resistance at 20750 and 21000 and be subject to selling pressure. If it remains above 19500, we can say that we are heading towards 23000. Since the 12000 level, they can show the 18000 - 20000 range, or even 23000 - 25000 - 27000 if they exaggerate.
I expect an increase to around 19850 in DAX. There should be a decrease from this point to around 19350. Although the possibility of 22000 - 23000 is on the table in Dax, it should not be forgotten that it is a very volatile product. If we do not fall below 19300 in the short term, 20000 and 20500 are the targets.
The conflicts in the Middle East and the upcoming US elections have increased the demand for gold. Gold broke a record by rising above $2,711 per ounce. Investors turn to gold, a safe haven in times of uncertainty. This year, gold has gained 31% and expectations of a Fed rate cut also supported the price increase. After falling from the important support of 2600, the ounce of gold clearly caught the 2700 movement. What needs to be understood here is that a bearish position is not opened in gold when a new peak comes. Because in commodities, there is a top to the top, and likewise, a bottom to the bottom. Those who trade blindly are doomed to fail. After a small correction this week, we will now reach the final target of 2770 - 2810. We can chase sales between these two levels, but with a stop. The second issue is that expecting a big drop in gold is nothing but illogical in this geopolitical environment, considering the US's $36 trillion debt risk. If there is no $200 - $300 drop on the ounce side, we can reach $3500 in 2025.
Silver ounce last week showed graphically that there is no formation called a 4-top, and that if you knock hard enough, the door can be opened, and the door was opened. While the ounce gold side is moving slowly, the silver side can move upwards with more momentum. Because the monthly RSI level is still at 68. The overbought zone is above 70. We will probably talk a lot about the silver side in 2025. Technical levels are short-term support at $32. Above this level, our main resistance zone is 35 - 36, which we came to 33.70 this week. If there is a correction from two levels, those who think of doing medium-term business can gather. The main target price expectation is $42 - 46 - 50 - 62 and $75.
Platinum has been moving in a horizontally narrowing triangle for a very long time. The breaking point here is the 1065 level. If we can pass, it will now turn positive for platinum and the first target, 1320, is expected. After that, it is a term business.
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