Sirwin
Sirwin

My Thoughts on Current Markets-95


Let's start with the dollar index (dxy). Fibonacci has been at resistance at 105 in a downward trend since the Fibonacci 1.618 peak at 113 on the weekly chart. Fibonacci made a reaction at 78.6, corresponding to 101.70. Now, whether it can go above 105 or not is very important in terms of dxy. If it exceeds 105, it is necessary to trade long dxy. I said that if it cannot exceed 105, the movement that started at 101 may end in a falling trend and turn into pressure again. It gets pressure from exactly 105 - 105.20. In conclusion, let's look at two perspectives for dxy. Now, I think the medium term will fluctuate between dxy 105 and fibonacci 78.6 to 100.79. I think dxy will be between 105 and 100.79 for a while, if the 105s, 102.9s and 102.5s are not broken, we may see an attack towards 105s again. But as long as we look at it in general, I say very clearly that unless 105 is exceeded in the medium term, dxy will be hit in the head with all the upward attacks it will make towards 100.79 again.

Here, the short trade discipline is disrupted by the long trade discipline at the close of the second day above 105. So this is our if condition. Therefore, all the outflows that we have seen in the past weeks towards 105 will not disrupt the short-term target of 100.79. Therefore, I think dxy will continue to receive sales in the attacks towards 100 - 105. This expectation, in terms of trading and risk management, turns into long above 105, with a clear stop loss discipline at the close of the second day above 105. As long as it remains below 105, down trade continues at 100.79. That's it for the analysis. Yes, 105 is a very critical level. To be frank, I do not expect it to be passed easily in terms of continuing the rise. Even if it is passed, things may get out of hand and it will go to a different point.

I was always looking at gold on the weekly chart. Today I changed perspective to diary. A triangle squeeze started to form in ounce gold. The final decision is now close. They are playing full tunes. Are you ready? We have come to the end of the jam. So here we are approaching the end of the squeeze between $2000 and $2050, triangle squeeze, triangle temporality. We will probably see a very clear and very needle movement in a few weeks. Of course, now investors also think this. A triangle is forming. Will the triangle break up or down? We will make our plan a and b. We will maintain our discipline in managing positions according to which direction it breaks. The bottom of the triangle is 1992, and the top of the triangle is 2038. Now I'm putting a small caveat here.

The triangle passes through 2038 but there is a Fibonacci resistance coming from above. That is 2060. As a result, gold, which currently remains above 1992 in terms of trading, continues to be read in a cautious upward mode. Below 1992 the story will turn down here. Therefore, by placing a stop loss on a 2-hour close or daily close below 1992, the upward reading discipline will continue towards the 2060s. Attention, depending on whether 2060 is passed or not, we will either see a serious spoiling in the price towards 2088 - 2154 above 2060, with the energy arising from the compression of this triangle. Or we will see a sharp sell-off from 2060 to 1992.

As a result, the answer to the question of what we should do as trading should be read above 1992 cautiously in the upward trading discipline. Position appetite above 2060 can be managed. Depending on whether it is passed or not, gold may disperse below 1992. If you ask how far it will go, they will make your eyebrows explode until 1940. We're talking about a drop of almost $50. Unless 1992 is broken, the target and long trade discipline is 2060, and if 2060 is passed, the upward reading discipline continues with the target of 2088 - 2154. Those who hear that gold will disperse, there is no need to worry, the important thing is the price. Unless 1992 is broken, you cannot act as if it will break. But if it breaks, they will shatter gold into pieces by 1940.

We see that Bitcoin has recently had a clear and sharp upward movement in the short term, which we can also describe as a show. The expanding triangle is moving as I said it would move inside the megaphone. It goes under the canal and tries to come towards it. As a result, pay attention here, the exit here is above the 8-day moving average and Fibonacci support. Here it made a relatively filamentous movement. Now he is erecting his mast.

As a result, there is no need to dig and smell this place too deeply. 51800 is the ongoing support zone. Unless closings below 51800 occur, 59500 and megaphone will be the focus target of Bitcoin, which continues to remain above the expanding triangle upper channel resistance zone 60919 - 51800, that is, the target point in the trading discipline. It will be very critical whether 59500, especially 60919, can be surpassed. If this movement continues to stay above 51800 and cannot pass there when it reaches 60900 - 61000, they lower it from the top to the bottom of the megaphone, as before, towards 51000. They pull it horizontally from above. Now, from here, they will either take it up and make a double rally, or they will go down from here and go below the narrowing triangle, the megaphone.

As a result, the current two-day direct support in bitcoin, which continues to remain above 51800, will continue its upward movement towards 59500 and 60900. Attention: Failure to pass the 60900 or 61000 region will be a very critical resistance in the sense that the rally will pause, enter a correction or continue with enthusiasm. Below 51800, this time the reverse of the game turns into down trade and a downward trend with a target of 45800 begins. Let me put it even more clearly, it is 42533. Long trade continues above 51800. 59500 - 60900 Target. Taking profit or holding positions will be reconsidered depending on whether 60900 - 61000 is exceeded or not. I will also re-evaluate. If it crosses this zone, upward trading will continue as a keep cautious. We will also raise the stop loss from 51800 to probably 55. In this sense, 60900 - 61000 will be a critical resistance zone for Bitcoin's current movement. It is necessary to be cautious in bitcoin below 51800. Above 51800, 60900 is the target.

The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.

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