This week, we started a week with both tension and important data flows in the markets. It is a very important and critical week for money markets. Of course, when geopolitical risks continue to increase, they are inevitably reflected in the money markets. When we look at the dollar index in international markets, that is, the value of the dollar in international markets, I expect an increase on this side this week. The Federal Reserve, the US Federal Reserve, has an interest rate decision on Wednesday. Since 80% of the money circulating in the world is dollar, and the reserve currency is dollar, the interest rate decision of the dollar side or the Federal Reserve of America, will have an impact on the dollar, on the value of the dollar in the world. The dollar index is currently at $103.55. I am waiting for an attack above the $104 level. From there, there will be a dollar index that declines again, falling to the 102 level. So we can see that the dollar is strong all over the world this week. That's why I can say that my strong stance on the dollar side will continue throughout this week due to the FED. In addition, non-agricultural employment data in the United States will be announced on Friday. This data will also give us clues about the monetary policy and interest rate policy of the Central Bank of America, the FED. So what will he do? For example, there is a possibility that the US Central Bank, the FED, will pass on Wednesday. Markets have priced this in 50%-50%. My personal opinion is that he will pass. However, the FED still has the desire to increase interest rates by 25 basis points. This may be postponed to March. Because the more it keeps the markets on edge, the more it manipulates, the more it leaves a "stay tuned" impression, and the more hawkish-toned statements it makes, the stronger the FED's hand becomes. So the further it is, the more important it is for the FED. That's why I see a strong possibility of a pass in January and I predict that the interest rate increase will be postponed to March. Of course, I continue to expect the FED to begin the process of reducing interest rates in the second half of 2024.
Euro - dollar parity is at 1.08 level. I had said that the Euro - Dollar parity would remain in the 1.08 - 1.09 range until the FED. Again, my opinion is that we need to divide the same week into two. When you divide the week into two: the period until Wednesday evening and the period after Wednesday, you will see that the prices will be variable before and after the FED. Until the FED, there will be a euro-dollar parity that will remain in the 1.08 - 1.09 band. After the FED's interest rate decision, we will see an upward trend targeting the 1.10 level. I would especially like to point out that these increases will continue from 1.12 to 1.15 this year.
An ounce of gold is at the 2025 dollar level. I stated that until the FED, the ounce of gold could be pulled down to the 2000 dollar support level, and then we would face a rise again targeting the 2070 dollar level. Currently it is at the 2025 dollar level, my expectation for the 2000 dollar level still continues. You can see the last suppression of the year as January. The $2000 level provides a buying opportunity for medium and long-term investors. This decline in ounce gold continues to provide a great opportunity in the last week for those who hold dollars and buy gold at the dollar-gold parity. Last week, I stated that gold and silver prices will continue to be suppressed next week, and assets against the dollar will continue to be suppressed until the FED. Now there is one day left for this process to end. During this process, this pressure will continue in all assets against the dollar. However, after the FED, a rise in the upward trend will be waiting for us.
The ounce price of silver is at 23 dollars. There is a support level of 22.50 below until the FED and a resistance level of $24 above. So the band range we will follow for this week is 22.50 - 24 dollars. It is necessary to follow these band intervals this week. I continue to see the $22.50 level as a buying opportunity. Because the 32 dollar level I expected this year remains valid. Silver remained cheap due to the ratio.
When we look at oil prices, there is a 1.72% decrease at 82.12 dollars. It rose to $84 yesterday. From there came profit selling. I made an analysis like this last week. There is an oil price hovering around the range of 70 - 75 dollars. However, geopolitical tensions continue. It quickly climbs above the $80 level. This time we can see an oil price hovering around the $80 - $85 range. I had warnings that the decline in oil prices is not permanent. It rose to $84.57 yesterday. So the 80 - 85 dollar band remained valid. Geopolitical tensions have increased in the Middle East. In other words, the geopolitical tensions between Iran and America, the death of two American soldiers over the weekend, the wounding of 24 American soldiers, the fact that America blamed this on Iran, and Israel was shooting at Iran, inevitably escalated the geopolitical tension. Oil prices have also increased. I continue my expectations for the $90 level this year. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East will never end. On the contrary, it will continue to increase. The important thing is that we will continue to observe which systematic scheme the developed countries that established this order will come up with and what kind of benefits they will obtain and continue to keep the tension here high. Unfortunately, geopolitical tensions will continue to escalate in the Middle East throughout the year. Unfortunately, I think the killing of innocent civilians there and the murder of children there will continue. That's why the fate of the Middle East is in the new world order, as the maps of the world are intensively redrawn in this direction, serious tensions continue to increase every month.
After the sharp declines in the cryptocurrency markets last week, this week started with a reaction. Bitcoin has a 2.19% increase in value around $42890. However, there is no change in my prediction regarding the 38000 - 48000 dollar level. I would like to state that I expect the cryptocurrency market to remain under pressure in February. It dropped to the level of 39000 dollars. When I warned you, the bitcoin side was at the level of 44000 - 45000 dollars. This expectation came true, at least partially. There is a $1000 gap area below. If the 38000 dollar level breaks downwards, we can also talk about a band like 35000 dollars. But I can say that the current negative outlook continues.
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