DXY entered the dangerous zone again last week due to the fear of the US government shutting down. VIX suddenly rose from 15 levels to 23-25, and US 10-year interest rates rose to serious levels. Naturally, the entire market suddenly fell under the leadership of Nasdaq. The factor here is that Powell, us10y, dxy all came together and all markets were exposed to fluctuations. This week will be the decisive week, but it will be clearer after the first week of January for more efficient results due to Christmas. The variability of the current conjuncture continues to increase. Naturally, even market makers have difficulty understanding this situation. As a result, the how many strategies work when you don't know. Technically, 108 is very important, below and above should be evaluated separately. If we can stay below 108 this week, we will return to normal conditions in the market. If it wants to go above, additional uncertainty may increase.

I shared that I expected a correction in DAX last week. A slightly exaggerated decline occurred with the global decline. The 19500 - 19600 area is the main support. As long as this is not broken, the declines will continue to be buy. However, if there is a break, 19200 and 18800 may come to the agenda below. We are in the period of being cautious.

The correction that I expected in Nasdaq 2 weeks ago happened last week. However, the 1000 point drop that fit into a single day surprised me as well. There is no extreme deterioration on the technical side. US stock markets are still very strong, so I do not interfere with European stock markets. Volatility is very high, this time it made a 1000 unit move upwards with a single candle on the last day of the week. Both shorts and longs were hunted. I do not take short transactions as per my own strategy, I adjust the declines by taking a buy position according to the main support margin. In addition, when the vix falls, I am on the side of adding. Although it seems like a bit of a complicated strategy, I think there is still time for the US stock markets to change trend from above. As for margin, I follow 19600. As long as 19600 is not broken, the main direction will continue upwards to 25000 - 27000 levels. In addition, the band has widened (I mentioned last week for scalpers, buy below, sell above). We are in periods where you need to dominate positions with small transactions.

For ounce gold, US 10-years should be monitored a little bit at this point. Technically, I do not expect a price below 2450 - 2400 (decreases are normal up to this point). However, after the product ropes that have been suppressed for many years are broken (2100), it may want to rest for a while after the peak. I mentioned that a downtrend may occur until December 20. December 20 is over, if we do not return to 2530 levels on the short side, a price of 3000 can now be expected. They can extend the term below 2530 until the first quarter of 2025.

Horizontal trend continues in ounce silver. Technically, we have returned to the main support level (28.80) this level is important in the short term. If we are above it or if we are making a band, it does not pose a problem and the movement continues from where it left off to 32.50. The decisive figures here are 32.50 and 33. When these are exceeded, there is no power left to stop the silver side. They are doing their best not to exceed there. I am maintaining my 50+ target in 2025. All declines are buying opportunities. If you cannot make margin, cash control and calculations, especially on the leveraged side, silver is a volatile product and can ruin you. I made my last purchases. If there are no major, extra deteriorations (pricing below $25-24), I will carry the position until the end of the second quarter of 2025.

I had shared that we would see a band movement on the Bitcoin technical side for a while. The fluctuation continues exactly the same right now. Our important support in the short term is 90,000. If we are above this level, there is no problem. A little more fluctuation and then a new ATH comes. There is much more money in the market than in 2015 and 2020. But if you ask, they say there is a liquidation problem, I do not agree with that. Everything is progressing as it should. There are many people who give dates and days about the bull, I do not agree with them either. There are a few analyzes that I have determined in the light of my own strategy. In the 2012 bull, the bull period after the halving lasted 15 months (including the halving month). In the 2016 bull, the bull period lasted 18 months. In the 2020 bull, the bull season started on the threshold of global problems, but it entered an intermediate correction in 11 months. Then, the increases continued from the fourteenth month to the eighteenth month. The major movements in the market occurred in the 15th and 18th months. In other words, the bull period is the last 3-4 months of the bull. Today, we are in the ninth month of the halving (we saw an intermediate rise before the halving). Based on this, if we are going to experience a 15-month bull, this business must end in the first half of 2025. The exact date is June 2025. However, not every coin can keep up with the rise in the last 4 months. While some complete the rise in the first 2 months, some complete it in the last 2 months. If this business is going to end in the first half of 2025, we need to get preliminary approval for this. For example, we should witness very serious increases in January and February. Increases that fit into a single month (400% - 700% - 1000%). If it is going to be a bad scenario, we are 18 months into September 2025. There is also an unknown scenario such as the bull lasting for a short time. Because when BTC passed the old peaks, it would drag everything behind it. This time, the old peak was passed and then a drop to 50,000 occurred. 75000 was passed again and the rise continues where it left off. If the rise is short-lived, it is expected to end in March 2025 (since not every coin will be able to catch up, some will be delayed to April - May). The bottoms are still in a bad state, so January and February will be a very important time period for the bottom bull signal.

Ethereum is still technically positive. I was expecting it to be rejected from 4200 in the short term and the correction zone should have been 3700 - 3600. However, it fell to 3100 without giving anyone a chance, and that too during the period when Trump bought Ethereum. The only thing to comment here is that we just lost some time.
In bull periods, 2 3 or even 4 5 declines like this are observed and their transformation has generally been 10 - 12 - 15, maximum 25 days. If they want to tire the market even more, they need to reduce it to the 2800 band (probably the belief in the bull will end). That's when the real rise can begin. Because we still have at least a 4-month bull period ahead of us. Just as the movements are 50% - 70% in 8 - 10 days, there is a potential for a 100% - 200% movement in 8 - 10 days when moving upwards. I am still positive, every decline is a buying opportunity (spot).

Brent oil still looks very weak. Continuing to make small peaks in the short term is actually the beginning of a bad scenario graphically. If we stay below $70, it may be exposed to much deeper declines. However, this squeeze can suddenly take it to $80 with a fake move. I perceive every exit as a selling opportunity. I interpret the main target price expectation as $50.

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