Dxy closed last week with a horizontal buyer. This week, the FED meeting in the US is on December 17-18. Interest rate cut expectations are currently in the prices. Dxy has not yet technically moved to the relaxation side. If we see a price below the 106 level after this week's decision, then relief will be seen in counter currencies. Market makers and players selling bonds are keeping both this and the 10-year bonds upright. I think this situation is temporary. As of the first quarter of 2025, the swing here will bring an extra rise to the market.
I expected a slight correction in Nasdaq last week. However, both the year-end and maturity changes did not allow this and the new ATH level of 21800 came. The market is not actually the peak seen by Nasdaq after the pandemic, it is 16700, it is currently 21800. In other words, all this fuss is roughly for 5000 points. Roughly speaking, even if there are big declines, as long as it remains above 19400 (current) level, all declines continue to be buy targeting 25000 level. I expect volatility to be low until the end of the year due to both Christmas and New Year. For those who look short, these periods may provide good returns in the form of buy from below and sell when it comes out.
Despite rumors such as Vw is sinking in Dax, Europe is in a bad situation, the market is such a power that no one can stop it even if the world goes down and the stock markets want to go up. Real events in the market may not concern financial markets. That's why I always say, keep your ears closed and look at the trend. There is a possibility of a small correction, but later we can see almost the same pricing with Nasdaq.
I stated last week that there may be a slight correction in ounce gold. In fact, declines may prevail until December 20 and then I said that we will target higher levels with the new year. There is no change in the strategy, as long as it remains above 2400, all declines in gold will continue to be buy targeting 3400. Note this on the wall, Gold did not rise because of wars! Gold did not rise because of global problems! US 10-year up gold down scenario, dxy up gold down scenario 2020 ended with the pandemic. New metrics are different, people with old ideas that cannot update themselves, institutions and traders are still sinking. I hope you realize this.
Silver is still less responsive to gold ounce declines (relatively positive). Technically, there will be a movement between 32 and 29.50 for a while. Note this too, whenever $33 is exceeded (at least 2 days of closing above it), then it means we will go to $40 quickly. As long as it stays above $27 and $28, I do not need any additional analysis. I maintain my target price expectation of $50+ by 2025.
We are still very strong in Bitcoin technically. An upward break will occur by the end of December. First, we will talk about the 120,000 level, then the 140,000 level. At the end, the 150,000 - 180,000 level will wink at us. However, we will occasionally see rapid corrections of 15 - 20%. Because sudden sales are normal when money moves from one sector to another.
We were rejected from the 4080 region in Ethereum last week (healthy). We will now have a stronger Ethereum. Although there is a possibility of a 3750 correction this week, the movement is clearly bullish. In fact, let me explain it this way, a similar squeeze to the 70,000 - 50,000 movement prevails on the BTC side. We all know what happened next. In the short term, the new ATH is 5000 and 6000 intermediate resistance, while the main resistance is in the 8000 region.
I have two scenarios for Brent oil, but the net direction is still down. If my first scenario comes true, I will become a net seller from the 78 - 80 region. The main target price expectation is $ 50. All major increases continue to be sell.
USD - JPY, both DXY and American 10-year interest rates still do not allow net sales. Technically, we are back in the re-test zone. As long as my main resistance is not broken (156-157), I continue to stay on the sell side.
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