Donald Trump became the new president of the United States. Trump's victory led to one of the best post-election days in history for US stock markets. The Fed lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points, in line with expectations. Bitcoin tested above $77,000 with Trump's presidential victory. In the 2024 US presidential election, according to Associated Press (AP) projections, Republican candidate Donald Trump won the election by passing the 270 delegate threshold and secured his second term as president. In the congressional elections, Republicans also consolidated their majority in the Senate with 52 seats. Chairman Jerome Powell stated that he would not leave his post if Trump requested it. Trump's re-election led to expectations that the Fed would take a more cautious stance on monetary policy.
Following Donald Trump's election victory in the US, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz dismissed Finance Minister Christian Linder, leading to the collapse of the coalition government and raising the possibility of early elections. Scholz stated that he would request a vote of confidence on January 15, 2025, and that elections could be held by the end of March at the latest. China's exports increased by 12.7% on an annual basis in October, the fastest increase since July 2022, exceeding expectations. Imports fell by 2.3%, while the trade surplus was $95.72 billion. Analysts say that manufacturers are moving their stocks out of China due to weakening global demand and price cuts. Donald Trump's election as president and his promise to impose tariffs of over 60% on Chinese imports could put additional pressure on exports.
The Dax continues to be sideways in the short term. This time, the German stock market has diverged from the US due to its internal dynamics. The increases will take some time, but the longer the term, the longer the movement will be. The short-term target is 21,000, and if the term is extended, we can go towards 23,000.
I expect an increase of around 106 on the DXY side. It should fall back from around 106 to around 103.80. The Euro should be 1.09 after falling to around 1.06.
USD/JPY may rise to around 155. Both US bond yields and the loss of strength in the JPYX index brought USD/JPY back to the 151-154 band. If there is going to be a positive movement, 154 should not be passed again and permanently. If it is passed, positions should not be stubborn. 149 should be broken down for relief, then we can talk about the 140-135 band again.
After Donald Trump won the US elections and the Fed cut interest rates, Bitcoin reached a record level of $76,956. The victory of Trump, who is known for his pro-crypto rhetoric, gave momentum to Bitcoin. In 2024, Bitcoin increased by more than 60 percent, leaving traditional assets behind. There may be minor corrections in Bitcoin. But now the main target area has become 115 for 2-3 terms. Serious movements of altcoins (200% - 300% in a single day) will start when the 93600 level comes. I don't have a bad scenario. Everything will continue to stay in the buy direction until the parabolic increases end.
We have come to the middle band of the channel again in Ethereum. It needs to linger a little. It is necessary for altcoins to move. Sudden sharp downward needles may come from the 3200 - 3500 range. But it will not be enough to break the uptrend. The medium-term target price expectation is the 6000 - 8000 range, if they exaggerate, the $ 10000 level may also occur.
Dow Jones general view up bull flag main target price expectation is the 48000 - 52000 range. All declines up to 41000 are buying opportunities. New changes have been announced in the Dow index. Nvidia (NVDA) will replace Intel (INTC), which is leaving its seat on the index after a 25-year period. Alibaba (BABA), which has been spending heavily on advertising to gain a foothold in the AI market, has allocated around 200 million yuan to promote Quark, a cloud storage and online search platform developed with manufacturer AI features.
Meta Platforms (META) announced that it will make its open-source Llama AI models available to US government agencies working on national security and defense applications. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) CFO Wendell Huang told investors that energy costs in Taiwan have doubled in the past few years and will be the company’s highest cost globally by 2024. According to data from the China Passenger Automobile Association (CPCA), Tesla’s (TSLA) October sales of vehicles manufactured in China fell 5.3% compared to the same period last year, reaching 68,280.
We are now above all times in Nasdaq. Looking for long-term sell trades from here is just suicide. In the short term, corrections up to 20500 are normal. But our support level is 19500. As long as it does not fall below this level, 23000 or even 25000 is the target. Palantir (PLTR) shares gained 38.97% in value during the week after the company announced above-expected revenue and profit on its balance sheet. Celanese (CE) shares lost 32.71% in value during the week after the company failed to meet its balance sheet expectations, announced that it was suspending dividend payments and announced that it would close its production facilities.
There are extra channels within the Russel 2000 ascending channel and we broke both channels up. All declines up to 2300 will remain as buy. The main target price expectation is $2800 - $3000.
Wells Fargo raised the 12-month average target price of Apollo Global (APO), which it watches with a “HIGH PORTFOLIO WEIGHT” rating, from $149 to $164. Leerink updated Beam Therapeutics’ (BEAM) “PARALLEL PERFORMANCE TO THE SECTOR” rating to “ABOVE PERFORMANCE TO THE SECTOR” and raised the 12-month average target price from $27 to $39. Raymond James raised Masimo’s (MASI) “PARALLEL PERFORMANCE TO THE SECTOR” rating to “ABOVE PERFORMANCE TO THE SECTOR” and set the 12-month average target price to $170.
I expect a decline to around 2610 ounce gold this week, barring any setbacks. There should be a reaction from around 2610 to around 2630. I do not agree with statements like "Ounce of gold is too much, the money coming out of gold will go into coins" and similar. Technically, in order for the rise to be broken, it has to fall below 2400. In the short term, the 2600 level test may come. I continue to stay on the net buyer side. As long as it stays above 2400, 3100 - 3400 - 3600 is the target.
On the silver side, my target is to fall to 29.80. Silver is the product that reacts the most to the ounce gold decline. We are in the correction phase of the sharp upward rise. Although the 30 test came this week, I am quite positive for December and January. I maintain my target of 50+ dollars in 2025. I meet all declines up to 29 with purchases.
Although months have passed since I said "Don't buy" Brent oil will fall, those who are still waiting for 300 are waiting well. Technically, it is still very weak regarding oil and it has approached the bottom. If the $69-70 level does not work this time, we will reach the $50 level. We are meeting every exit as a sale. The main target is $30 in 2025.
On the economic calendar, Home Depot (HD) Balance Sheet, Astrazeneca (AZN) Balance Sheet, Shopify (SHOP) Balance Sheet, Spotify (SPOT) Balance Sheet, Occidental Petroleum (OXY) Balance Sheet will be announced on Tuesday this week. US Consumer Inflation (CPI), Cisco (CSCO) Balance Sheet will be announced on Wednesday. US Producer Inflation (PPI), Fed Chair Powell's Speech, Disney (DIS) Balance Sheet, Applied Materials (AMAT) Balance Sheet, JD.com (JD) Balance Sheet will be announced on Thursday. US Retail Sales, US Industrial Production, US Capacity Utilization Rate, Alibaba (BABA) Balance Sheet will be announced on Friday.
The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.
