Global markets are focused on the FED's interest rate decision and the US presidential election. All eyes in global markets are on the US Federal Reserve's (FED) interest rate decision to be announced this week and the US presidential election. The possible results of the elections to be held on November 5 in the US, where the countdown is ongoing, are being closely followed by investors due to their impact on global markets. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump aims to implement new tariffs, reduce taxes and increase fossil fuel production if he is elected for a second term, while Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris plans to pursue policies that are generally in line with the Joe Biden administration, such as reducing costs and taxes for middle-class Americans.
With these developments, global markets have been negative due to political uncertainties regarding the US presidential election to be held on November 5 and the ongoing decline led by technology stocks. According to the macroeconomic data released in the US, non-farm employment in the US increased below expectations by 12 thousand people in October, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1 percent. Strong hurricanes and a major labor strike caused a weak increase in nonfarm payrolls in October, the effects in the data in question were temporary and did not have a clear effect on the unemployment rate. Analysts emphasized that the US economy grew by close to 3 percent and said that the decline in nonfarm payrolls did not mean that the country's economy was in danger of recession. Analysts stated that the data supported expectations that the FED would cut interest rates by a quarter basis point at its meeting to be held immediately after the elections next week.
Nasdaq broke the short ascending channel last week and we were subject to rapid selling pressure. The number we will follow here is 20200. If we can exceed this level and ensure permanence, the movement will continue where it left off. In the short, if our intermediate support is the 19500 region, the main support, as long as we stay above these two levels, the 19000 level, buy-side positions can continue to be carried for the 23000 movement. If we fall below the 19000 level, we will be talking about another scenario that we do not expect in the market. I expect an increase to around 20500 this week. There should be a decrease from around 20500 to around 20150.
A negative trend has also dominated European stock markets due to the effect of the decreasing global risk appetite before the presidential elections in the US. According to the data announced in the region, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the Eurozone increased by 2 percent on an annual basis in October, above expectations. The expectation was that annual inflation would be 1.9 percent in October. After the CPI increased above expectations, economists indicate that the possibility of a large-scale interest rate cut of 50 basis points at the ECB's December meeting has weakened. Unemployment in the region remained unchanged at 6.3 percent in September. This week, the manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone and Germany, Wednesday the Producer Price Index (PPI) in the Eurozone, the service sector PMI, factory orders and service sector PMI in Germany, Thursday the BoE's interest rate decision, industrial production in Germany, and retail sales in the Eurozone will be monitored.
The Dax index, which has been affected by the global decline, has reached the intermediate support area. Our main support level is 18500, if we are above this level, we will target 21000 by going back and forth with the term. I prefer to stay on the Nasdaq side for a faster and sharper movement. The Dax should rise to around 19500 and then fall to 19300.
The EURUSD parity is seen to have settled at 1.0895 levels this morning. When I evaluate the EURUSD parity, it can be expected to pass the 1.0907 level and head towards 1.0940. The parity, which started the new week with a 0.57% increase, may turn its eyes to the 1.0997 level with the surpassing of the 1.0940 level. The holding above the 1.0870 level in the Euro-Dollar parity can be evaluated as positive. In possible pullback movements, I will be following the support points of 1.0830 and 1.0769 in case of sags that may occur below the 1.0870 level.
We reached the 2770 - 2810 area in ounce gold and experienced a reactionary decline. The main trend support is the 2600 level. If this level is above, the trend will not be broken and the 3100 - 3400 area is targeted. In the short, the 2700 and 2660 areas can be followed for trading purposes. 2792 was the peak. We experienced a pullback from this point to around 2730, I expect a reaction to around 2745 this week, and then a decline to around 2685/90.
Silver ounce support zone from 2011 turned into resistance (34.50 - 35.50). This last correction. It provides a very good opportunity for gradual collection. In short analysis, 31.80 level is an important support. It is possible that we will see a serious reaction from here. The main support is around $ 30. Medium and long term target price expectation is $ 50+. Every decrease continues to be a buying opportunity. The area where the movement will accelerate is the month close above 35.50. There should be a pullback to around 31.50 on the silver side.
Brent oil produced some reaction last week but it is not enough. Since the US side will not allow inflation to jump before the election, the increases are limited. The only action I will take in a possible sharp increase will be sales (excluding geopolitical risk). The main target price expectation is $ 50. I expect an increase to around 77 on the Brent side this week. If there is no setback, there should be a decrease from around 77 to around 72. Natural gas should rise to $3 and then fall to 2.70.
Although we made an attack on the old peak after the Bitcoin bull flag formation, it could not break it with volume and came back to the re-test region in the 65000 - 68000 range. A strong return from here will be a clear signal for the bull. The real sharp increases will occur above 74000. A sharp dump came after the peak we expected. If there is no setback in the following process, it may come again to around 67500. I expect an increase from this point to around 75500. There should be a pullback from around 75500 to around 71500.
Ethereum is technically very stuck and there has to be a boom. If we come back to the 2800 band after the elections this week, this time we will pass and the expected 3x - 5x movement in the short term will start below. In the medium term, we will have to push above 4000 for the real movement.
Elon Musk’s “Executed Squirrel” Post Sends PNUT Coin Soaring. Peanut the Squirrel (PNUT), the Solana-Based Meme Coin, has achieved a massive success, reaching a market cap of $130 million in just three days. This surge came after Tesla CEO Elon Musk created a frenzy among traders after commenting on the sudden death of the popular squirrel. This unexpected interest has pushed PNUT’s price and market value to unprecedented levels.
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