Last week, there were interest rate decisions by central banks all over the world. First of all, the FED, and of course I had been expecting an interest rate cut for a long time, but I expected it to start with 25 basis points. The FED made a political decision and started with 50 basis points. There is a clear political and economic agenda for the election of Kamala Harris. But I hadn't really thought that they would make it so obvious. It started with 50 basis points. I think it was a political decision before the election. I think it was a decision to create an election economy aimed at funding the American treasury, and I think the current pricing is currently designed to get Kamala Harris elected. But the race is neck and neck. Recently, with Biden withdrawing his candidacy, Kamala Harris has been making moves. She is also ahead, we will see this in the polls.

The FED is currently cutting interest rates by 50 basis points, and although Powell gave strong economic messages at the meeting, he mentioned that the economy was not strong and the employment market was weakening rapidly. He spoke very weakly at the meeting anyway, and there was a hard sell while he was speaking. Then they bought it the next day but that is something we have been waiting for, in other words, the interest rate cut is something we have been waiting for to create a positive perception on the S&P and Nasdaq side. The timing of the interest rate cut here is very important.

They scared us a lot in Nasdaq 2 weeks ago but then a purchase came. Now, I accept that September-October is a period when there is a lot of uncertainty before the election. There will be a lot of ups and downs. There will be a lot of what we call a saw market here. There was already a formation like a head and shoulders here. Actually, I was a little afraid of that too. There was a purchase for now but I think there is still a problem here, at least it could be in September-October. It did not close badly, I still think it can go up to around 20800. There is a gap at 20400, I think Nasdaq will go up to buy it. The movement after that is important as I have been waiting for a long time. The interest rate cut came, it was more market-friendly to start with only 25 basis points. I think starting with 50 basis points was not very good at first, at least when we talk about statistical science. I said gradual interest rate cuts are market-friendly, we will see that.

Of course, there is a danger right now, when we look at it from a statistical perspective, there was a correction in October in S&P 500, which is usually an election period. There is a possibility here from a statistical perspective, but when we look at the closing, it made a good closing right now. Therefore, I am still waiting for above 6000. I am also waiting for above 6000. I was thinking that there could be a correction here for a long time, 2 weeks ago, but last week I saw that they were not giving it, I said it was still gapping. Therefore, we need to be a little careful in October, but for now the picture is not too bad, on the contrary, it is even positive. Russell 2000, this ETF, I have been stating this for a long time, if you have been following lately, I have always been looking at the main boards that we call the magnificent 7, Nvidia, Google, Microsoft, etc. But the side boards started to price the interest rate cuts in advance and they have not actually performed badly in the recent period. Again, I think that the interest rate cuts of the side boards will be positive for the side boards in the upcoming period.

I wanted to open a separate heading for Nvidia. There was already a shoulder and head and shoulders here. I was a little hesitant about that too. I had stated that it would pull everything down below 118. It really pulled down that week, I thought it could go even lower, the bulls held it there. They don't want to give the market away for now, but if it goes below 107, my expectation is actually upwards, if it goes above 120, the market will be more relaxed. At least we will go out to buy those gaps at the first stage and then we will see what happens there. But if it starts to hang below 107 here, I would like to draw attention to this head and shoulders formation and the negative discrepancy in the lower indicators. Nvidia is currently the main indicator that determines everything in the market.

When you compare it with Bitcoin's 4-hour chart, there are almost, there are minor differences, but Nvidia almost determines it, especially during the hours when America is open. The discrepancies are actually the hours when America is closed. Nvidia determines Nasdaq here, and also determines Bitcoin. If Nvidia also thinks about running a possible head and shoulders formation, which is targeted at around 60. In other words, it has a serious margin below. If they want to make the correction we just mentioned in October, I will be a little careful here. Although the main direction is up, we saw that it started to slowly fall below the supports. This is SQQQ, UVIX, and if VIX is very cheap, if it starts to fall very low, professional players can take VIX arms here to hedge themselves. It is necessary to act professionally, especially in this period of uncertainty before the election. I think that instead of taking a 100% position in everything, it is necessary to go with a more controlled portfolio.

The dollar index is 100.5, which is currently at the lowest level of the last two years. I was saying that I was expecting a decline here. Now, 100.5 is an important level, which means it can have a margin of up to 95 below 100.5. Frankly, I think this could have an upward reaction in the short term. Maybe if they want to correct the market in this way, they can do something like this. Although, recently, while the DXY has been going up, American stock markets have also been going up. Because when the Yen appreciates here, there is an exit from the stock markets as the carry trade in Yen gradually unravels. In general, they seem to have actually inflated the market with cheap Yen loans. In other words, it cannot be called inflating right now because forward EPS and earnings per share are still inflated, I do not think they are a bubble. In other words, I still think Nvidia has margin on the upside. But even the reasons for giving are, while presenting these projections on the balance sheet, a ceiling price and a floor price are set. The balance sheet is much higher than the floor price but they tried to give it to Nvidia because it was slightly below the ceiling price. So basically we don't have a situation to panic much right now. At least in the short term at this stage, but if the dollar index falls below 100.5 as I said, I think the appreciation in the Pound will continue. The most valuable GBPUSD of the last 2.5 years was seen in the Pound.

We sometimes criticize the institutions' erroneous reports in ounce gold now, but here I really thought if there would be a correction when BofA said buy despite the high prices. I still think it is upward. I think the 2660 resistance is in the upcoming period. If they open above, that is, above 2660 - 2700, I think there is a graph that will go towards the first target of $3000. Of course, it may be approaching a correction here. But I think the declines will be a buying opportunity. The medium and long term is important in gold, especially if it happens as I think, if the US dollar at least depreciates in the next 6 months, if the FED has a controlled depreciation, I think that gold will be in higher demand with falling interest rates and real interest rates.

The reverse head and shoulders scenario that I mentioned months ago is already working in Bitcoin. I think 66000 will be an important resistance. There is weekly resistance around 66000 - 69000 and 72500 - 73000. Maybe we will look at the possibility of a double top here. I am bullish. I think that the declines here will be a buying opportunity here as well. For now, I think the upward movement will continue. But if I am wrong, 49000 should be followed as the main support.

I said that Brent oil is downward. Brent oil really made a solid decline. The decline below $ 68 will also harden. There is an oil outlook in Covid. Now, if they had allowed this decline, they would have had to give the whole market away, they bought it. $ 68 is now an important support. If it goes from here and gets approval for a decrease and turns down, that is, 79 and 86 are important resistances here. A new rise above 86 will start from here. A new wave of inflation will start in oil and even globally. Right now, 68 dollars is acting as support. If it gets approval for a decrease from here at 79-80 dollars and turns down, there will really be a recession in the upcoming period as it is priced in the global bond market, in fact Lagarde had warned about the 1929 crisis this week. If there will be a similar scenario, oil should go down, although they say copper is the most important indicator of global growth, I think oil. In other words, the price of everything is determined accordingly. After all, the price of diesel is mainly for farmers.

The employment market and interest rate cut momentum should be followed closely in the upcoming period. The employment market is not going badly right now. The interest rate cut momentum has turned on here right now. In other words, if it had started with 25 basis points, I think it would have been more positive. But they started with 50 basis points. They did not listen to Trump's warning not to interfere in the election. Actually, I think they intervened in the election, which I mean I think it was a political decision. They could have started with 25 basis points. Because the inflation data announced 2 weeks ago, especially the core, was a bit high. I think there was enough space in financial terms, but in political terms, they gave the message of 50 basis points through Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos. You really need to be careful about what the guy writes. They also made him write 75 basis points. He started with 50 basis points, the bond market was right here. In other words, we can say that the market actually brought the FED to the direction it wanted. It normally agreed to 50 basis points.

The unemployment rate is 4.2, if this rate goes up sharply, it was a bit low last month, for example, they may lower the stock markets. Of course, the rapid increase in unemployment, artificial intelligence and immigrants come into play here, but the Goldman Sachs projection was interesting to me. It expects 4%, so it does not expect high unemployment. Of course, this is a projection that is the exact opposite of the concept of recession, that is, the theory of recession. Likewise, I think that the unemployment rate of 219,000 in another institution will increase to 300,000 in non-farm employment for September. Therefore, I had already stated in the Dow Jones that I think the index has a 20% upward margin 1-2 months ago. This also started to go up. For now, the market does not have a recessionary pricing in this short term. But the next 6-12 months are critical anyway. In other words, the event we call the bull steepener in the bond market, the 10-year rise above the 2-year and the upward acceleration, of course, generally resulted in a recession here.

Therefore, there is still a risk of recession. This is the most important question in the upcoming period. In other words, if they are going to give the stock markets down, they will give them with deflation and recession. But as I just explained with oil and again last week, there is a possibility of inflation reviving again due to the very rapid increase in commodity prices. The market is currently pricing a 50% recession. I take the pricing in the bond market seriously. Therefore, I am a moderate optimist, specifically for American stock markets. For example, here, Goldman Sachs is still giving the gross domestic product above 2%. As you know, technically, in order to enter a recession, it needs to be negative GDP for two consecutive quarters. In other words, it is still 2.2%, let alone negative, it is still 2.2%, this is a high figure for 2025. In other words, if the indexes continue to go up, if Goldman Sachs is right here, for example, the Atalanta FED is expecting 3% GDP here this week. In other words, these are very serious figures. In other words, there is no pricing of this recession at the moment, to be honest.

In the upcoming period, as I mentioned earlier, 10-years have jumped over 2-years. There is a bull steepener event here. Normally, previous experiences have shown that this has remained upside down for 6 months to a year, sometimes 177 days, sometimes longer. But right now, it has jumped above 1, which has generally resulted in a recession. There is not much data this week, it will be a period where levels are traded. The positive picture on the commodity side is still ongoing. But maybe there will be a correction there too, but I think corrections will also be a buying opportunity.

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