In recent days, especially the US employment data coming in below expectations, the interest rate hike in Japan before that, the concern that the FED was late in reducing interest rates along with the employment data coming in below expectations, and as a result, the narrowing of the gap between Japanese and American interest rates created serious concerns on the carry trade side, which we saw on Monday last week. We saw that the indices were seriously affected after the serious declines in the Japanese stock market. When we look at it in general terms, many indices actually compensated for the decline on Monday during the week.
If the closing above 17700 continues in the short term, especially on the German side, we will test the 18000 resistance in the coming days. 18000 is an important resistance, the course here will be determined depending on whether this is exceeded or not. If 18000 is exceeded, the movement will continue to the 18200 - 18500 levels, the range. But if the 18000-18200 band cannot be exceeded in the reactions, I will say that the pullback to 17500s will continue and may continue here.
Dow Jones also compensated for the rapid decline it made on Monday until Friday. Here, 39800 was especially prominent and unfortunately the reactions are having difficulty exceeding this level. If we can start to get closings above 39800 on the Dow Jones side, we will observe a movement towards the 40300-40500 band again, but if the 39800s continue to be resistance in the coming days, I can say that I will expect a pullback to the 39400-39000 band again.
While talking about whether Bitcoin will be a complete safe haven, we experienced a very serious and harsh pullback to 49000s after testing 70000. Unfortunately, I can say that such pullbacks, although they are in ETF, leave the possibility of being a safe haven here a little behind. It is also useful to say that its ability to continue above 54000s was at least technically positive. Especially in the short term, as long as it can stay above the 59000 - 60000 band, upward movement can still continue. Here, in the upward movement, especially in the coming days, the 62000 - 64000 band will be important for us in terms of a clear upward movement to start again.
Around 66500 was tried but could not make a single close above it, when closings start to come above 66500, the trend here indicates a movement that can continue up to 80000. Let's pay attention to this in particular. If we start to see clear closings above 67000, I can say that in the short term, Bitcoin will be positive and will indicate a movement towards the new peak. As long as we cannot exceed this, it can also be said that the purchases that come up to here should be evaluated as a position opportunity in general. The worst-case scenario below is a closing below 54000. Let me state that it is useful to be careful if it starts to do this.
Gold has entered the saw band in the 2360 to 2470 region. In other words, when looking at the developments in both the geopolitical side and the stock markets, I can say that gold is resisting to move too sharply. If we observe a breakout from this saw band and if we get closings above 2470 in the coming days, it will be possible to talk about a stronger upward trend. However, as long as we cannot achieve this, I can say that the saw movement in this region will continue for a while on the ounce gold side.
In Brent, especially the 250 Bollinger band reaches its peak and starts to correct. There is a balancing on the middle band. When it breaks, it falls sharply. When it is passed, it can still give strong reactions, but the point we last reacted to was the reaction from the lower band of the 74 Bollinger band and rose to 79. Here, 80 is a psychological level, especially in the short term. In order for a strong upward movement to occur, this indicator concentration in the 82 - 85 band needs to be broken. If this region breaks upwards again, if this region breaks upwards again, we can talk about a very serious movement on the oil side that can reach the 92.1 region. But if we cannot exceed this region, I will state that it is useful to review the positions again.
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