European stock markets closed higher on the last trading day of the week. At the close, the benchmark index Stoxx Europe 600 gained 0.83 percent to 512.83 points. Shares of construction and material companies rose 1.8 percent and those of household goods companies rose 1.7 percent, leading the gains in the markets. In the ongoing balance sheet season, British bank NatWest's shares increased 7 percent after it announced that its first half pre-tax profit fell less than expected. 18000 is still a serious support level on the DAX. As long as it remains above, 21200 is the target. Short fluctuations are quite normal. It can be tried in a buy position by accepting the stop at the 18000 level or 100-200 units below.
The New York Stock Exchange closed the last trading day of the week with an increase as data indicating that inflation in the US is slowing strengthened expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will make its first interest rate cut in September. While investors were evaluating the signals received from the data released in the US, a positive trend was observed in the stock markets at the close of the week. According to the data released in the country, personal consumption expenditures increased in line with expectations by 0.3 percent monthly in June. The personal consumption expenditures price index also increased in line with expectations by 0.1 percent monthly and 2.5 percent annually in June. The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy items that the Fed considers as inflation indicators, increased in line with expectations by 0.2 percent monthly in June and slightly above expectations by 2.6 percent annually.
The core personal consumption expenditures price index had also increased by 2.6 percent annually in May. The moderate increase in the data in question is encouraging for Fed officials who want to slow down inflation without harming the economy, and the data strengthens expectations that the Fed will make its first interest rate cut in September. Consumers' short-term inflation expectations fell from 3 percent in July to 2.9 percent, while long-term inflation expectations remained at 3 percent. I would like to state that the decisions to be made at the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this week in the US will be the focus of the markets on the balance sheets of technology giants such as Microsoft, Apple, Amazon and Meta. An upward break in US2000 means a new peak, while a reading below 2200 extends the term.
One of the most serious sales of recent times occurred in Nasdaq. Normally, I would expect it to return from around 20,000. However, Japan messed things up. The fact that it went up much faster than other indexes caused profit taking. If you notice, Dow Jones and DAX could not keep up with the declines. Technically, a bounce is expected this week. This could probably be the 19650 - 20,000 range. 18,000 - 17,800 is the main support. The main resistance is now 21,000. Intermediate supports are 18800 - 18550, intermediate resistances are 19400 - 19700 - 20000. I expect it to move between intermediate supports for a while. Of course, if the FED does not come out and cut interest on July 31.
As I mentioned before in Dow Jones, I said that money will leave technology and go into the remaining stocks and indices. Dow Jones continues on its way. Technically, as long as it does not stay below 39000, the target is 42000 - 45000.
EURUSD parity is moving at $ 1.0860 levels on the new day. Although a positive outlook prevailed in the Euro Dollar parity in July, I can say that the upward movement was limited to 1.37% when looking at this month. Although the level of 1.0820 is an important level, the trend appearance can continue as long as it remains above it. Permanent movements above 1.0899 above may open the way for the 1.1015 - 1.1045 region. Otherwise, I would like to say that the pressure may continue below 1.0851 and thus the support of 1.0826 and 1.0800 may be important.
The USDJPY chart continues in the selling direction. If there is no reaction this week, we may suddenly drop to the 150 and 148 bands. There is a BOJ meeting on the night of July 30. Volatility is likely to be high. Technically, as long as 159 is not exceeded, all increases are sell positions.
The ounce of gold is trading at $2394.45 this morning. I observe that there have been pullbacks on the ounce gold front after the $2483.72 trial tested on July 17. If the pullbacks in question continue, the weekly bottom level of $2353.26 and the monthly bottom level of $2318.59 can be evaluated as possible significant reversal movements in the precious metal. He says that in order for the negative expectation to come to the fore, it should be permanent below the $2390 level and I think that in addition to macroeconomic developments, the safe haven demand that may occur together with the increasing geopolitical risks in the Middle East should be followed with importance and attention in terms of ounce gold pricing. The ounce of gold has been moving sideways for a while, although this formation scares me, I see no problem in staying on the bullish side as long as it does not fall below 2200. A period of horizontal movement should be considered normal in the summer months, the real sharp rise will start after August 2590 - 2750. For 2025, 3000 and above is targeted.
Ounce silver closed the past weeks with much sharper declines compared to gold. When the rise from 30s could not exceed 32 dollars, they lowered it to 27.50. It is currently providing very good opportunities. I do not expect a movement below 25 and although it is a little slow above, I think the target of 34 - 36 may appear this year. Below 25 is extremely negative.
I expect the chart to fall below the large horizontal channel in Brent. Every rise means selling unless 92 is exceeded.
Bitcoin has fed the bear trap to all shorts expected, but altcoins are still dead. For serious action, the level of 72000 must be exceeded. In the other scenario, the horizontality will continue until the end of summer. The target after 72000 is broken is 80000 - 89000 - 102000 for the short.
Ethereum made a second contact with the channel bottom at 2800 and turned up again. As long as it stays above 2800, my target price expectation of 4100 - 4300 continues. Persistence above these levels will take us to the 5200 - 5600 band. Below 2800 is negative.
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