I am a controlled bull on the S&P 500. I think this is the phrase that best describes what I mean. Therefore, being a fierce bull means position management at a comfortable pace, so to speak, for position appetites. I'm a controlled bull now. Because we have come to important mathematics, pay attention to Fibonacci 1.618 and the last bar on the weekly chart is red. We got the biggest red candle of recent months when Fibonacci touched 1.618. This is Fibonacci mathematics. Therefore, if you ask me a question from an investor's perspective, "Do you expect 5643 to move up in S&P?" I'm waiting. But I am interpreting myself. What is going on between Trump and Kamala Harris in the band between 5643 and 5490 until 5643 is passed? Who is leading in which poll? As an enthusiastic bull throughout this process, I draw my s&p view to the controlled bull point.
Conclusion: I think that S&P will go through a decision and pressure process in the 5490 - 5644 band for a while. But I am commenting here. This process will not take very long. So there is a maximum of 3 weeks in the region between 5644 and 5490 and even a maximum of 5300. If I were to explain it in trading mode, retreats towards 5490 - 5300 are important opportunities with the discipline of placing a stop on multiple closings below 5300. Retreats towards 5490 - 5300 are opportunities for stocks that are spoiled on the US side and are not disturbed on the fundamental side. So how should the risk management of the opportunity be done? You know, when something falls, it's an opportunity. But there should be risk management there, right? There should be a stop loss logic here. Retreats towards 5490 - 5300 are a relative opportunity for the s&p target of 5782 - 6094 by passing 5644. Risk management and plan B Since multiple closes below 5300 could disrupt the upward dynamic, risk control should be done with some defensive impulse on short-term positions there.
When I look at the weekly chart on Intel, staying above 30.30 - 24.70, especially 30.30, is relatively positive in the technical discipline. The risk of continuing the pressure towards 24.70s in Intel below 30.30s is again in the left pocket as plan B risk management. A strong upward momentum in Intel, which continues to remain above 30.30s and 24.70s, requires around 50 for a strong upward discipline to begin. The resistance from the top in the late periods of 2024 is important. This resistance is an intermediate falling trend. If you look at last week's needle, it draws a candle towards both the main falling trend and its 55-week moving average, throws a wick, and then pulls itself back.
For those who do not want to take too much risk, who say "I can buy from above if necessary, but let's see the trend start", the crossing of 37.90 should be seen. I can say that 30.30 - 24.70 is Intel's strong support zone. As long as it stays above this support zone and exceeds 37.90, we will encounter a stronger, more bullish chart on Intel with a target of 4688. But let me put a small note of risk here. Until 37.93 is passed, it may remain under a little more pressure within the narrowing triangle between 37.93 and 30 dollars. Here's what the investor will do: Either uptrade above 37.93 towards 46.88 or retreating towards 30.30 - 24.70 unless 37.93 is exceeded can be read as a relative opportunity. If you are trading momentum, you need to be fast. You can't trade momentum by doing other things. In general, you cannot trade anything by doing other things, you can only invest, not just momentum.
The chart is positive in this sense, with Tesla above a significant falling resistance from around 2022 on the weekly chart. I consider it important that it is above the falling trend here. Tesla is eating sales, we'll look at this here. Does it go back into the triangle it broke? Unless it falls below 215.70, the targets of 292.90 - 344.70 are one click ahead on the chart. Being one click ahead is not the definitive goal. In it, risk management should be managed at 215.75. Let this be a warning about financial literacy. Therefore, Tesla, which continues to remain above 215.70, will maintain its target potential of 292.90 - 344.70.
If the target potential of 292 and 344.70 closes below 215.70, the pennant may suddenly turn upside down with the lower pressure of 175.20, causing the investor to be victimized and embarrassed. Therefore, 215.70 Tesla is the stop loss and support zone that follows the positive chart to stay positive. I may have the opportunity to explain the 292 - 344 targets above 215.70 at Tesla in the coming months. If there is a fall below 215.70 and a retreat towards 175.20, this could be a sign of risk management and relative defense for short-term positions. However, perhaps in such a decline, there may be an opportunity for those who have cash on hand.
The trade war between China and America was not actually a trade war. In fact, it was a war between Apple's technology and Huawei's technology by Trump. Even before Trump took office and he was on the road, he said, "Wait a minute, now we are dealing with China, back then there were technology wars on the side of Apple and Huawei." Now artificial intelligence has been integrated into the world, and therefore he said to the chip manufacturers behind artificial intelligence; "You produce this chip for us, then you will give money to America." He said, and TSM's situation is already obvious. The Taiwan Stock Exchange fell for 5 consecutive trading days and a new route was created. It turns out that after Trump took office, our new route seems to be Taiwan.
If you look at the weekly chart of TSM, it reached 1.618, which is the Fibonacci golden ratio of the 144 - 60 decline. Trump is a complete market man, the marketer himself admits this. Kamala will definitely push him, I agree. Because Kamala is a smart woman, but in my personal opinion, Trump will devour Kamala. It left itself sharply as it reached 196 at the target of 144 and 60 dollars. Meanwhile, we see that many companies in America experienced sharp sales after 1,618. In this sense, there is QQQ, for example, it had a hard sell at 1.618. So what will the investor do now? First of all, we will accept this and that in TSM. There is no new trend unless 196.5 is passed. If there is no trend, there is no money. Whenever TSM is going to trigger a new momentum, a new trend, or even a new spoiled phase between 212.5 and $280, again with Fibonacci mathematics, you will wait a long time to be triggered unless 196.5 is passed. But if it is passed, let me say that a new catalyst exit begins, which will be the main target at 212.5, $280.
Therefore, unless 196.5 is exceeded, I like this TSM very much, but unless 196.5 is exceeded, I am not like the one at 90 dollars. The chart shows us that if it does not break 154.90, it may trigger the TSM comeback scenario by going down to 154.90 or back to 196.5 without going down, with its footprint in the past. But I insist on this. The story of "We gathered the nets from the port again and we are sailing to the open sea in order to start a movement in TSM from 180 to 196" will not start unless 196.5 passes. Therefore, in the 196.5 - 154.90 band, TSM may want to balance this process, these new expectations, positive and negative expectations in this region. What I will say for TSM is that an upward trading with a target of 212.5 - 280 can be followed above 196.5. Unless 196.5 is exceeded, the 196.5 - 154.90 band is a flat zone in my eyes. It is a region that needs to be followed without position. This area is not a bonus area, this is the area that needs to be controlled.
I am looking for permanence above the 2420s so that there can be a new movement in ounce gold, such as the movement that will bring it from 1800 to 2400s and 2450s. We tried above 2420, we stayed for a few days, but we were not successful. Therefore, I am in the 2427 - 2340 region for gold. This region seems to be under pressure. If gold knowingly and willingly continues its pressure towards 2340 - 2250 without exceeding 2427, it is an opportunity.
The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.
