My Thoughts on Current Markets-137


We renewed the historical peak of 19114 in Nasdaq. There is a bowl that starts in April. Let's see if we can fold this dish. So can we get to 20000? It seems like it is still pushing up. The 50-day average is at 18158, the 20-day exponential moving average is at 18451. The trend is up, this place is going up no matter what the FED says. It seems that it will continue its upward trend within the exit channel that it started from the bottom of 16973. I think the first target is 19650. However, if it crashes below the averages, below 18451, there is 18158 there as well. If it breaks, it's a big problem. There is also a trend line connecting the bottoms just below the 50-day average. So, in the future, the trend line will merge with the 50-day average. The support there is important.

There is trouble in Dow Jones. He wrapped it horizontally. The historical peak is at 40077. It's a little too low for the handle of the cup handle formation. It would have been great if it had stayed above the 20-day and 50-day averages. If it was a cup handle formation, I would say the minimum would be 42500. There is a target of 45000 but it may not be soon. Because the FED still hasn't decided what to do. The current image is a bit of an average test, with a shot from top to bottom. The 50-day average is at 38832 and the 20-day average is at 38936. As long as the FED's interest rate cuts are still expected in September or November, people come to the markets. There is no other choice, where to go?

There seems to be a nice hammer movement in the DAX, the 50-day average was right. He could not fold the bowl in the range of 17626 - 18567 in April - May. If this bowl doubles, the target is 19500. There is a problem in the 18850s. He tried twice but failed. But he doesn't want to go down either. He set up a barricade here. The 50-day average is at 18333. An upward movement from the 50-day moving average may then come down, perform a backtest and move upwards. If it breaks the 50-day moving average downwards, it will go up to 17644. Despite all the noise and fuss over the German economy, this index has not collapsed in recent years. If things get a little better now, then it won't collapse at all. It seems to be aiming towards the historical peak of 20000.

Brent oil is around 76.74. If oil goes up, the fight against inflation will be damaged. At the same time, some countries will make a lot of money when the price of oil is up. He doesn't want them to make money either. The falling trend, which emerged from the combination of falling highs starting from the 91.58 high in April, still seems to continue. If this downward trend can be broken upwards, the movement that started at 91.58 may complete the trough and come back towards 91.58. But they won't leave it above 91 again. They keep it under control, they won't let it down anymore. Because countries like Canada, Norway, Arabia and Brazil make money. You can't let the oil go that low here either. So that's where many countries make money. You will neither take it too much down nor too much up against inflation.

There was a sharp sale in ounce gold. We stayed above 2277. Now we're trying to get out of here. We are approaching the 50-day average. It looks like we wrapped it horizontally. In this horizontal channel, the up side is 2440 and the down side is 2280. The 20-day moving average is at 2346, the 50-day moving average is around 2313. If it breaks the downtrend that started from the 2450 peak in May, it will complete the trough. It will reinforce the horizontal area well and will not break away immediately. It looks like there will be some exploring in the horizontal area. The bottom of the 2280 is just a little empty. Wherever it breaks from the horizontal area, it is expected to travel in the same direction by the difference of 160 units, that is, if it is up, it is up, if it is down, it is expected to travel in the same direction, and to cover the distance and travel in the same direction. We're hovering around the limit for now. We are trying to make a bottom on the downside. Yes, we are trying to stop the incoming sales.

In silver, the falling channel formed by the combination of the falling highs starting from the 32.29 peak in May went below the 20-day mark, trying to find support from the 50-day exponential moving average and the uptrend combining the rising lows starting from February. The levels of 32.52 and 32.29 in May may go down slightly in the short term and turn into a double top. There is an atmosphere that the FED will take a softer stance rather than such a hawkish stance in the markets. That's why it looks like it won't go down much, but it probably won't go up from here either. Now it's down to 29. The movement, which started at 32 in May, targets 36 as soon as it completes the trough and breaks upward. It has not yet been able to increase its trough between 29.79 - 26.02 in April-May and encountered a sale at 32.52.

While the dollar index was about to go down, it returned from 103.99. The movement starting from the top of 106.52, turning up from 104, is trying to complete the trough. If the trough completes and reaches 106.52 again, gold and indices will tend to sell. The downtrend starting from 106.52 and connecting the descending highs was broken. It's starting to create some doubt that the dollar index will go down. The fact that the dollar index is hovering around here creates an atmosphere that interest rates may not decrease in the short term. That's why it's best to be a little careful. So not everything is 100% guaranteed.

Euro - Dollar parity made a small trough in May starting from 1.0897 and then reversed. The classic movement of the Forex market is that someone will definitely run the stops. It had to break upwards and check the 1.0972 top here. The downward move was caused by such a small upward move in the dollar index. In the meantime, the fact that the FED increases interest rates or the FED resists not reducing interest rates is not a factor in the dollar index going up. So, in a sense, the dollar index shows where the dollar stands against 6 currencies. It shows what its value is. While a currency is valued relative to others, it may not be valued in that way just because it will appreciate itself, the currency does not appreciate and preserves itself in the same place. However, if other currencies such as the euro, pound sterling, yen and Canadian dollar are collapsing where they meet, if they cannot strengthen enough or weaken, then the dollar index automatically strengthens anyway.

Because it is a relative thing, while one side collapses, the other side necessarily goes up on its own. There is also such a situation. So we do not depend everything on the FED. The FED was also confused about what to do. Germany is going to cut interest rates in Europe. Its own currency, the Euro, is within 57% of the dollar index. So 57% of the dollar index is against the euro. If the Euro-Dollar parity goes down or weakens when there is an interest rate cut in the Euro, the dollar index also gets stronger. You have to go above the averages to go up. The completion of the big trough, which started from the top of 1.1143 in January and continued with the bottom of 1.0602 in April, may be delayed a little longer. Maybe he will spend time where he is now. After that, maybe it will go to 1.11. The outlook seems to be shifting a little more to the right with Europe's interest rate cuts. This upward movement seems to take a little more time. Those who bet on the downside, those who held a downside position, that is, those who shorted the Euro and bet on the dollar, won.

GBP - USD resisted more than Euro. The euro has already weakened itself further with the interest rate cut. Sterling also moved around too much in the trough it started in February. These used to come and go very quickly in the Forex market. Now, I guess those who do business in the Forex market are extremely bored. Big players, investors can make money. Because, let me say, it is beyond scalping because it makes money in small movements. But since small investors or small speculators are inactive, it doesn't seem to me like they are making that much money. I think he might try higher up once more.

If we look at GBP - JPY, there is a great struggle in the 200s. The Bank of Japan intervened in April and supposedly brought it down. The market didn't even stop there, it returned to its previous place. Now he is struggling here to go higher. We are in the exit channel that has been formed since January. The 50-day average is at 196.07 and the 20-day exponential average is at 198.60. We are above both averages. If 200 is exceeded, it will climb to 203.50. The trend is up, the real story here is going up within the channel. If it touches the upper line of the channel, there will be a sale.

The harsh sales in Ethereum were welcomed and recovered. The 20-day moving average is at 3676 and the 50-day moving average is at 3494. It may try the downward 50-day average. The target is around 5000, the dent after the peak achieved towards the end of 2021. Now he wants to come back there again. If the trough starting from the 4098 peak in March doubles and explodes up, the target will be 5500. Before we get there, of course, trouble arises in 4731. This is the major main hill. This is a historical peak, there will be trouble. It has recovered after a hard sell and is trying to hold on to the 20-day average. But if he releases it, he will reach 3500. The rapid departure in May also bothered me a bit. It would have been better if it had come out a little more subtly.

The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.

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