Sirwin
Sirwin

My Thoughts on Current Markets-131


Nasdaq is at its historical peak with 18907. It started to go up after 17500 was passed here. He completed the dish he started in April. Price went as far as he could and fulfilled his duty. There was a hard sell but it is recovering again. As long as it doesn't go below 18500, it goes up. So it is heading towards 19000 and above. The rise, which started at 16973 in mid-April, is going upwards step by step.

There is a very sharp decline and recovery effort in Dow Jones. It reached the historical peak with 40051, completing the trend it started in April. Dow Jones could not stay above 39889 and went down. This went a little differently. In other words, as soon as it exceeds the 20-day average of 39240, it means a passenger again with an upward movement towards 40000. There should normally be no downward movement. It seems that the conditions do not support such a sharp decline or are not bad enough to cause it. But pay attention to the 50-day average of 38905. If they break it, it's something I don't expect, but it will go up to 38300 to close the gap. Once again, it seems to me that it will go towards 40000. The movement that started in April seems to be mostly about cups and handles. He made the cup and it looks like it will complete the handle. Then it may head upwards again. If he folds the cup, it means it is already going to 42500.

DAX is also trying to double the trend upwards, which it started in April. So it's trying to go towards 19500. The 20-day average was 18559 and the 50-day average was 18229. The price is climbing above both. It also hit the 20-day exponential average and is going up. It seems to me that it will probably exceed around 18900 and continue its run towards 19500. Unless the rising trend line that started at the beginning of May is broken, the upward intention still continues. The trend line and the 20-day average already support each other. As soon as the last historical peak is passed, the DAX is on the up again.

Ounce of gold made a bowl from mid-April. The bowl needs to be folded up, normally they put it down without folding it because everyone plays up. But now it's back again. The 20-day average is at 2355, and it looks like it will rise above the 20-day average. He returned from nearly 50 days old. Unless there is a sharp break down, my guess is that after a little delay around 2450, maybe it will turn the handle of the cup and move upwards again. The FED's approach to interest rate cuts will also support this as a date. Someone is holding a position in advance. If it doubles upwards, it has a target of $2600. If the breakout is downward, things will get worse. Then the price is sent downwards. It comes around 2150 - 2160. So you will see in which direction the break will occur. My prediction is that it will test the resistance at 2431 again without breaking again. It seems to me that it will hover around the 2290 - 2430 band in the short term.

Silver is back up again. The 20-day exponential moving average is at 29.52 and the 50-day exponential moving average is at 27.84. The uptrend, which combines the lows since March, coincides with the 50-day average. The price turned upwards again from the 20-day high. The target was 33.60, but the sale came before it got here. It is testing the 29.79 peak by coming back. In other words, it is checking whether the 29.79 resistance passed can be support in a possible decline. It did not fall below 29.79. The 20-day average has also reached there, now the price is going up. If 33.5 is exceeded, the upward movement continues.

If you look at the monthly Brent chart, the 50-month average is at 79, it does not go down to around 71. It has reached 80.5 in recent days. There is great support here at the 50-month average. Here the opposite shoulder can lie on the head and shoulders. It shows the target at 88 and goes towards the top of 88.59. So, as soon as it folds, it checks the 88.24 top. I guess it will turn into a semicircle once again, starting from April. It will go back to 92's in the coming months. They don't leave it down either. There is a 50-month average, and there are also many large countries that are in the ranks of the oil-based emperor and make a living from oil. If you lower the prices too much this time, those countries will cut production and cause the prices to rise again. This turns into an indicator used in the economy along with the growth rate. As countries grow, prices go up due to the need for energy. Demand is increasing, but it is also being used as a political weapon. In other words, there are many countries that are affected by the price of oil and that feed their economies by making more money when the price of oil goes up. Among them, there are also countries whose development is not desired. That's why they neither reduce the price of oil too much nor increase it too much. Even if it goes up too much, it triggers inflation. It deals a blow to the fight against inflation and increases prices. America is trying to keep inflation closer to 2%. There is such a war going on.

There is a rising channel in the dollar index that started from the end of December. If the FED starts to cut interest rates again, the channel will break and start moving towards 102.5. When we look at the last two months, the downward trend appears and it seems to be turning down again from the 105.08 peak. If it breaks the downward trend upwards, then it may fall to the right after the 105.75 peak. Then it goes to 106.05 again. But if there is a break down, it seems to me that 104.08 will not hold it. It feels like it's sliding a little lower. It may even drift below the channel within a downward channel.

Bitcoin has hit the 20-day average and is turning up. The downtrend from the 72797 high in April was broken. It became the Golden Cross. The latest bottom is around 66600. Now it's heading up again. In other words, it is heading towards 73000 to complete the trough it started in April. There will be another clash there. It turned up above the averages. There is no fly-by-night situation. Because the right side needs to be filled. There has been a lot of struggle within the horizontal channel that started since March. If the midpoint is 70000, the struggle in this area will continue. After that, if it breaks 74000, then it will move towards 80000. But that could probably be towards autumn.

Ethereum reached 3980. Resistance is here at 4100, not much left. Something like $120 left. The line joining the falling hills has been crossed. It became the Golden Cross. The 3365 peak was exceeded. There was a bit of a struggle on the way to 3691 due to the previous hills. Now it is going to the top of 4100.

Euro dollar classic horizontal area this is 1.11 - 1.05. Recently, it went up to 1.06 again and went back from there. It may go towards 1.098. It may struggle a little in the 1.08 - 1.0981 band and then move towards 1.11, completing the trough that started in January. It looks like he's going to complete this bowl. The line connecting the descending peaks was tested, the average came there. It became a Golden Cross, as if it was aiming upwards. Because other commodities had such an appearance, the indices went up. This can also imitate and aim upwards.

The Bank of Japan intervened in GBP/JPY, it went down and returned from the 50-day average. It goes again, almost reaching the historical peak. The dish is folded up between November and January. There was an intervention at the end of April because it had progressed too much. But despite this, it returned from the 50-day average and above the trend line. It has turned from here and is now above the 50-day average, above the 20-day average and is still continuing in an upward direction. The 20-day average is 196.95, it is going normally. The 50-day average is 194.33. The trend is upward, above the averages. It seems like it's aiming for around 202.

We are heading for a top of 1.27 in GBP/USD. He is completing the dish he started in March. If it breaks after lingering, it will go up towards 1.3150. The rising trend line starting from 2023 seems to be going in a rising channel, so around 1,307 is targeted in the future. So when it touches here, if it is already equal to the previous peak, there will be a sale somewhere around here. But in my opinion, the current target is above 1.30. It takes some time, but it looks like it.

The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.

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