My Thoughts on Current Markets-127


The historical peak on Nasdaq used to be 18464. We rolled down from here and there were two bottoms. After making a bottom at 16973, it peaked at 17820 and made a second bottom again at 17284. The second bottom remained above the first. It was a very nice double bottom in the shape of a triangle. From here he shot up again. If you take this from the point where its height has already hit upwards, you can see that the price reached the historical peak in 1874. It became the Golden Cross in 17693. I already said that the falling trend line starting from 18250, that is, it goes up when this resistance is passed. So at least it goes to complete the bowl starting from 18464. He goes to survey the hills. It went down from 18464, then moved up again after the double bottom. Because as expectations increased that the FED would reduce interest rates again, the market turned upward again. I once stated that it is heading towards 20000. Of course, this movement will happen over time.

I once stated that the target for Dow Jones, the father of indices, was 40000 or even 45000. But 45000 will not come immediately, please allow. The huge Dow Jones still did well. There is a top of 38552 between the bottoms of 37754 - 37611. When you put the 1000 point difference between 37500 and 38500 above 38500, there is already 39500 up. I mentioned that it would close the gap at the beginning of April. The falling trend line connecting the 39889 and 38552 highs was broken downwards. It made a Golden Cross around 38450 and went to the historical peak, reaching 40000. The 20-day average is at 39105, the 50-day average is at 38779. The gap between the moving averages and the candles has widened slightly. When the gap between the candles and the moving averages opens slightly, it generally moves horizontally or waits for the 20-day moving average to move upwards towards itself. Either the graph will move downwards a little, it will correct itself, maybe it will go horizontally a little. The next move is important, as long as FED's interest rate expectations and discount expectations continue, around 39500 - 40000 is exciting. Around 39500 - 40000 is actively aimed upwards. Money is trying to place itself somewhere, it is trying to settle somewhere.

DAX in Germany has already reached its historical peak of 18846. Here, too, there is a possibility of increasing the bowl it created in April. The target seems to be somewhere around 19500. The 20-day moving average is at 18457 and the 50-day moving average is at 18122. 50 days average stay away. Currently the 20-day moving average is controlling. Resistance is also at its historical peak in 18892. Now it is testing the level it has passed. Unless it goes below 18567 levels, the normal expectation here is up. Technically, we wait for the upside. You cannot know whether they will cheat or not, but normally, expectations should rise in such a move. If it goes up, somewhere around 19500, you will think about whether to sell or not. If you follow Elliott with 3 rises and 2 falls since mid-April, you may think so.

In the dollar index, the price reached 107. It returned from 106.52 and now it is coming down. It is trying to find support within the ascending channel that started from January. However, the 20-day average also comes to cut the 50-day average downwards. Although he cut it in March and then came back, you never know, he might cut it here and not come back. If it crashes again in anticipation of an interest rate cut, there will be a Deadly Cross here, the 20-day average will cut the 50-day average downwards. Then the target will be around 102.50 and it will drift towards there. Because the bottom line of the exit channel is support, once it is broken, the bottoms at 102.60 - 102.50 are checked. In the upward movement, first 105.70 and then 106.52 are tested.

Gold reached 2450. It went up with the excuse of the Iranian president's helicopter crash. But normally it is already going up, above the averages. Now, the resistance in the falling trend connecting the peaks in April has also been passed. There is a bowl starting from the top 2431 in April. If this dish folds it goes towards 2600. The most important support is at 2352, the 20-day moving average is at 2352, and the 50-day moving average is at 2289. Generally, it is the 20-day average that follows the price. While passing the bowl, it goes away for a while, comes back, tests the 2430 level, and lingers there. Then if it hits up again, it's going to 2600.

Silver gradually became legendary. He lingered for 3-4 years, now he is multiplying the dish he started in April. It tested the $26 level in April, and the 50-day average reached here. When he folds this bowl upwards, he shows 33.60 as the target. If you look at the breakout of the resistance at 29.79, it passes with a big candle, almost marubozu. Then another green candle came, pushing the price up. Those wondering how far it will go should look at the level of ounce silver in 2011. In 2011, when gold was 1900, ounce silver was 49.81. The decline that started from here finally ended in 2020. If the bowl he started in 2020 doubles over time, it will reach 41.28. But all hell will break loose at levels 35, where Fibonacci 61.8 is located and where there are two top resistances.

Brent's 50-month moving average is at 77,515. Brent won't go down from here, but 95 is also waiting here as resistance. Once upon a time, it was $15, but in the 2020s, the goods remained on ships. Those were the days during Covid. But brent came to 80.85 again. It went below average, it became Deadly Cross, now it's recovering. In an upward movement, reverse shoulder turns into head shoulder. The 20-day average is at 84.20, the 50-day average is at 84.75. Since the 20-day average is below the 50-day Deadly Cross. But an upward move would take the price back towards 89 and it would be wise to be careful as there seems to be a small reversal here. For those holding a downside position, you must have a stop somewhere. Above average brings buying once again. The place to sell was at 86 levels at the end of April, now it is recovering.

Bitcoin is going up, at 68649. The falling trend resistance from the highs of 72797 and 65500 was broken. The bowl starting at 72797 is going to complete at 74000. There was a golden intersection on May 16. Resistance has been passed, the averages are two side by side, and the price is going up.

Ethereum broke the falling channel that started in March. The target seems to be above 3700.

Golden Cross has arrived in Euro - Dollar. 1.0897 has been passed, the next target seems to be 1.0969. It is heading towards a big trough that will start from 1.1143 in January and end around 1.1150. If he folds this bowl, 1.16's will appear over time. Of course, this is a long-term job. With the FED's interest rate cuts, it joins this upward movement. Also, if the European Central Bank increases interest rates, then it will be a rocket. But in order to recover the economy, the European Central Bank must move towards interest rate reductions rather than interest rate increases. It's not doing so well in Europe. Northern countries such as Germany and the Netherlands are okay, but unfortunately the countries in the south are not in such a good situation. They are pushing the European Union. We have been going in the 1.11 - 1.05 band for a long time, about 2 years. Multiplying this gives 1.17 on the upside, but this takes time.

GBP - USD also went up, we are passing the 1.27 peak and now we are heading towards 1.28. When you put the triangle formed by the double bottom height of 1.2299 and 1.2446 on the upper side, it slowly moves towards 1.29. FED's interest rate cut expectations also trigger this upward trend. When you look at it, you can see that it is a Golden Cross and the averages intersect at 1.26. It pushes the price up, it can go up to 1.28. This is a bit more of a long-term job, but step by step. It collided with resistance at 1.27, now it will collide again when it reaches 1.28. Finally, when it reaches 1.29, buyers and sellers will clash.

Despite the Japanese bank's efforts, GBP/JPY is going up again. The Bank of Japan intervened towards the end of April and reduced it to 191, but it was not enough. The 20-day moving average is at 195.25, and the 50-day moving average is at 193.18. But the main trend is up, it will push 200 again, the channel has also formed. The trough in December - January doubled upwards. Now he's pushing once again. Its intention is 201.5 levels, the next peak is here as resistance, it is aimed towards there.

The rise in wheat continues, targeting 757. He is trying to complete the dish he started in August. If the bowl folds up, it goes for $1,000.

The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.

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