There was a 3-week correction period on the weekly S&P 500 chart. In fact, the chart tells us that I have been reacting to this for 2-3 weeks, but I have reached a very important point, I have reached 5200, what will I do now? In fact, we followed the FED most recently. At the FED, too. Ultimately, Powell's speech is critical for us. In fact, the most critical point here is that in response to the expectations of some institutions that there might be an interest rate increase from the FED this year, Powell said no, our next move will be an interest rate cut. In fact, parallel statements came from other FED presidents. In other words, it was underlined that the next move would not be an interest rate increase. At this point, we can say that some relief has come to the market, especially bond interest rates. I said that there will be a reaction from this 13-week moving average, which is likely to happen. Powell has already made statements.
It supported the reaction movement departing from the 13-week moving average. Therefore, fundamentals and techniques overlapped. Now I see this very clearly and I say very clearly that there has been a reaction movement from the 21-week moving average here towards 5200 again. The best is not left behind in America. The last time he reached the 5300 peak, the best is not left behind, there is something better. Therefore, the 4 to 5 weeks of decline before the last rise is a short-term correction within the medium-term uptrend. I said that either the last 21-week moving average will break and extend a little more temporally towards 4821, or we will get up from the 21-week period, turn around, and make a reaction.
Strategically, first of all, America 5010 and / or 4821, these two numbers are important, I underline, they are very important. Especially unless 4821 is broken, all withdrawals towards this region will never disrupt our 5644 s&p medium-term target, just like in the last month. So we will continue to focus there in terms of trading discipline. In this sense, in order for the reaction attack we have been making from 5000s for 3 weeks to remain in a long trade discipline with a more meaningful, safer and more enthusiastic tone, the Fibonacci 78.6 of this peak in the 5300s and this bottom in the 5000s passes through 5204.
If S&P exceeds 5204 within 1 - 2 days, it will probably revise its peak 2 months ago. We will see that it continues to drag its main trend towards my 5350 short 5644 medium term target. Here, we will see the balance in the very major and very short range between 5000 and 5204 as a region where it balances the pressure it has been experiencing for 1 - 1.5 months. As long as we stay above 5000, we will discipline on the short-term modeling side and upside towards the 5204 - 5350 targets. We may face a new bear attack below 5100 towards 4821.
However, unless I go below 4821, the process will find its target in zigzags towards 5644, which is the 1.618 level, which is the golden ratio of the decline of 4800 - 3400, and as I mentioned before, America's target is 1.618. Result: 5010 - 5204 is our short term band, our controlled up zone, 5000 may be broken and there may be pressure towards 4820's. Yes, it may pose a risk. However, unless 4800 is broken, the S&P short target is 5350, the medium term target is probably 5644 since 3600 - 3800, and I personally think that the 5644 level and / or a level very close to it will be tested within this year.
There has been a "sell and go" thing in May for years. Therefore, in May, the market begins to decline, or rather, to be complacent. This could be a consolidation, it doesn't have to be a bear market like this. As you know, this phrase has settled into the language of traders and investors. Fibonacci 78.6 of the last peak and 5000 decline is 5204. If we cannot sit on 5204 this week, that well-known market proverb may come true. Before it can pass 5204, S&P 5010 may receive another bear attack towards 4821.
This confirms the proverb. But let me emphasize that technical analysis is essential, regardless of the proverb, and state this. We will encounter significant resistance at 5204. If we cannot pass here, we may sell again towards 5000. However, short-term players will follow the 5000 and medium-term players will follow the 4821 levels as tracers and support points. Even if we go down to these supports, I can see America's S&P 5350 as a short-term target and 5644 as a target to welcome Trump.
When I look at the weekly chart of Starbucks, it seems that the hard sales caused by this balance sheet left itself downwards with a significant red candle after the hard sales it had on Thursday - Friday last week. Its rise from 51 dollars to 126 dollars in 2020 - 2021 found support at Fibonacci 78.6 in its previous decline in 2022. When it did not break, it created a trend here and moved 78.6. Then it went back in 2023 and started to decline again. It is negative that the general upward trend that started in 2020 has been broken. But is it a positive thing in the long term? Or, declines are opportunities in themselves. Is this also an opportunity? Or can an experiment, a reaction trading attempt be made here?
If we are going to do this, we will get the answer to questions such as with what if condition or stop loss discipline we can manage this at $67. There is no decree law stating that Fibonacci 78.6 worked before and will work now. But this is an important threshold. It may not be easy if you wonder whether it will break $67 with this decline. Even if it's going to break, it won't happen the first time. Or it reacts, exceeds 84 and starts the trend. Maybe he can create new expectations for himself by saying that he saw the worst on the balance sheet side, I don't know. It is necessary to follow the basics. Conclusion Whether or not Starbucks' sales last week found support at $67 is extremely important in technical analysis. If Starbucks is going to increase its push towards $60 and/or $50, it needs to break $67 if it is going to hit its big bottom.
But unless it breaks or breaks $67, I would keep the possibility of trying an unsafe reaction attack towards $79.86 - $83 a click ahead. You have to be controlled. You should not be aggressive by thinking that there will be a reaction. Even if we were to try such a long trading, we should not accept a closing below $67 in terms of risk management. Result: In the range of $67 to $84, Starbucks may try a reaction attack to get back into the upward trend. However, here is the advice that technical analysis gives us. Let's do it here in the trading discipline, with a controlled absolute stop loss discipline for upward reactions, unless both the rising trend that is broken and the falling trend that started on December 13th is broken because the rising trend is broken.
If it goes above $83 - $84, it will probably go towards $106 at Starbucks. But there is this condition. It is not possible to go to the falling trend starting in mid-2021 without passing the falling trend that started on December 13, in terms of triggering, momentum or time. Therefore, Starbucks may want to balance the 67 and 83 band a little and try sweet responses. If 83 - 84 is exceeded, one can be in the Starbucks long trading discipline a little more safely with the target of 106. Unless 84 is exceeded, a relatively optimistic reaction can be traded below 67 with absolute discipline and stop discipline.
Here, I can say that managing this completely depends on your perception of risk. For example, the trader may say this himself. Okay, there is an opportunity here too, but I do not like making risky transactions. I think an investor who believes that he likes to trade in more comfortable areas and slightly safer areas should approach the reactions cautiously and not take that risk unless 83 - 84 is exceeded. Also, people who like adrenaline and risk taking may want to visualize a risky reaction trading by placing a stop below 67 dollars towards 84, as I mentioned.
AMD has made a correction from the top. Note the 1.618 gold rate for the 2022 drop of $163 to $54. When the rally, which started towards the end of 2023, reached 1,618, or 230 dollars, the downward trend began. It has been a good sales opportunity for those who think that Fibonacci 1.618s are actually good sales areas at certain times and for those who spread their sales there. If AMD is to turn upwards again in the decline that has occurred since 220 - 230 dollars in 1.618, we have two numbers that investors should follow carefully, as in 2022 - 2023, and may even be a relative opportunity zone in itself.
The first one is 140.5, the second one is 140.5, I can't say it will go down, let me tell you why. It had previously returned from 55 in the late periods of 2023. There are two numbers, either 140.5 or 121.5. Therefore, 140.5 is the intermediate support and 121.5 is the medium-term main support. However, if or when 140.5 is not broken, I keep one step ahead in my assumptions about the possibility of a reaction attack towards 163 - 173 due to the decline of the last 7 - 8 weeks. Below 140.5 this target scale breaks down. There may be a more dominant bear pressure below 140.5 towards 121.5.
If 140.5 is broken, the short-term pressure may increase even more, but if this board drops to 121.5, I will evaluate this board. I'm not saying buy or sell, nor am I giving advice. But I would rate this board. The result is 140.5 intermediate support and 121.5 main support at AMD. As long as these two support zones remain above 140, a reaction movement may be seen in AMD this week towards 163 and 173. If 173 is exceeded, AMD starts a new trend. The trend is your friend begins and the exit trend targeting $227 is confirmed.
Technologies have been a coup in America, especially recently, and rightfully so. Because they went ahead. Those loaded from the front always straighten from the front and hard. Those who act so calmly make such soft corrections. Amazon is also one of America's big guns in that tone. Amazon's 188 to 80 drop in the 2022 to 2023 range is a huge drop in the interim, a very serious drop. It has reached the old top of the 188 - 81 decline. As long as the old highs remain above 61.8 - 78.6, they are weak resistances, temporary resistances. There are bear and bull wars there. They may even want to move it down in the graphic and add a handle. Considering this as a bowl starting in 2022, they may want to take it down and put a handle on it. These are part of the process.
The result is Amazon 171 intermediate support, even 171 - 164.5 short term support, and medium term 146 strong support. Don't make sense that Amazon will drop to 146. There is a rising trend here that has been confirmed 3 times. This is also important since it is the 55-week moving average. 171 - 164.5 is a short-term support zone under pressure from Amazon's double top. Especially unless 164.5 is broken, Amazon seems likely to move up to 188.26 and maintain its trend discipline at 217.25. Unless 171 - 164.5 is broken with the discipline of placing a stop below 171 or 164.5, I do not take the stalling around 188.26 for 2 - 3 weeks seriously, technically, and I am ending it this way. Even if Amazon retreats towards 171 and 164.5, its target is 217.35 and then 250 dollars.
The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.
