Sirwin
Sirwin

My Thoughts on Current Markets-112


Nasdaq made 3 peaks in March and April. The first is 18416, the second is 18464, which is the historical peak, and the third is 18337. A horizontal area similar to the head-and-shoulders formation was formed between these dates. After April 12, it broke the 20-day and 50-day averages and went down. Now it is trying to turn up from around 17128. If it goes down a little further, it will go towards 16500. If we stay in the hammer shape for a while and move upwards with a white candle, we will probably reach the average. The horizontal channel between 18464 - 17747 folded down after April 12. The task was accomplished. Now there is a reaction movement from here. It can go up to around 17750. If we look at the averages, it was 17845 - 17794 but it is not there anymore. The 20-day average is at 17781 and the 50-day average is at 17770. It's almost Deathly Cross. The 20-day average has moved towards the 50-day average and is about to cut downwards. That's why we need to move up quickly from here and get above this average. Otherwise, this is a bit of a danger zone, the downward movement may continue. So, you cannot go above these averages, if it struggles in this region for a while but then gets tired and moves up slightly and then moves down, it means there is a journey towards 16500.

The reason for this is that this rise, which has been going on for a long time and has been going on since November 2022, is now a little tired. The reason for his fatigue was the FED's interest rate cut issue. But the FED is now a little behind. So that's how the FED started whining. When this happens, profit realization also comes. A lot of people are here in the snow. The FED got tired of wondering whether we should do it now or later, or should we not do it before inflation is definitely killed and the inflation rate goes down even further? So the indexes said, you make your decision and then we'll see what to do. Those who were in profit sold it, so to speak, and left. They will come after a while, when things become a little clearer. It's just starting to get blurry now, it's not clear. In other words, it is not clear whether the FED will cut interest rates until the end of the year or whether it will start at the end of the year. In that case, uncertainty upsets money. Money annoys him, he doesn't like uncertainty at all. Instantly changes course.

The Dow Jones 20-day average is at 38463, the 50-day average is at 38516. The 20-day average fell slightly below the 50-day average, which is a troubling situation. Towards the end of March, the duo peaked and went down from there. After his Golden Cross in November 2023, the price never fell below the 50-day average. Let alone 50 days, it always remained over 20 days. Now it has fallen below 50 days for the first time. After the Golden Cross, the 20-day average never crossed the 50-day average downwards. But now it's cutting. There is a problem, there is weariness, that is, he is tired. I think it will rest a bit, if it goes above the averages, then I would say okay with an upward movement above 38500. You know, a little more and the train sits on the rails again.

I say they are getting the locomotive back on the rails. But now the locomotive and wagons have gone off the rails a little bit. In order to get them back on the rails, we need to see the price rise above the averages to continue on the upward path. Otherwise, the downward trend towards 37000 may continue. The lowest stop at 37611 is the final bottom for those holding upside positions. There are up to 37000 passengers below it, it is better to be careful. But of course, there will be a situation for those who hold a downward position to say oh how nice.

Dax is also a little tired and has just reached the 50-day average for the first time in a long time. It touched down sometime in January, and a hammer formed there. After the hammer, it took off and reached its historical peak with 18567. Now it is stuck between two averages. According to the averages, the 20-day average is at 17970. It was 63, now it's 70. The other average, the 50-day average, is at 18746, 3 points, he wrote above. We are between two averages. If this price, which is between these averages, rises above the averages with an upward movement, we continue on our way again for 20 days, as at the end of January.

But if we go downwards, towards the last bottom, 17626, if we drill here, it will sag downwards. The gap on February 22 may be closed. Then, the possibility of the rate falling towards 17150 and closing the gap there increases. If 17626 is broken. The trend is downwards, we need to go above it if it is going to go up. It needs a move that breaks the downward trend upwards. If it's going to go up, keep that in mind.

The dollar index reached 106.44. It reached its highest level at 106.52. It's coming towards 107.35, maybe he's a little tired. But slightly maybe wait for the 20-day average once again. Then from here it maybe goes a little further towards 107. What pushed this to this point was that the FED was still undecided about interest rate cuts, and we got excited about cutting interest rates, but then we realized that the FED had no intention of cutting interest rates. The market was a bit disappointed, I mean disappointed. I think he says we are going up in the channel, I will cut the interest rate, let's see. There is not much trust in the FED. He said he would do it and missed, he said he would do it but he didn't do it again. Indices got bored in the market and sold off.

There is a problem in Gold, we have reached 2431, there is a war, rockets, noise, flag formation has come into place. He covered the distance and reached 2400. Two recent peaks were formed at 2431 and 2417, after which there was a hard sell. There is a possibility of a double summit. Short term is problematic. If it stops at the 20-day average, the decline may turn horizontal or form a triangle. There is a downward slope if the hills connect. This time there will be a downward sloping triangle, like a descending triangle. Let's see if it will hold on to 2324 here, or if it will break the averages and go even lower.

If it breaks the 20-day average, then there is a possibility that it will go down as much as the thickness of the triangle, which is 2431 - 2324, and that is where the 50-day average is. That's 2218, the 20-day average is 2312, the 20-day moving average has reached 2312 as the decline continues. Now, a situation that breaks the movement within the triangle here triggers an upward movement again. But such a move would trigger a downward move for up to 50 days.

Silver reached the 20-day average. It could not exceed 30 dollars, it exceeded 26 dollars, which was a success. He made a move towards 30. Let's assume that the trough formed in December 2023 - April 2024 doubles, 31.5 is its target. It is trying to hold on to its 20-day average support, the support is at 27.19. The 50-day average is at 25.70.

Brent came to 85 again at the 50-day average, and when it breaks the 20-day average, the 50-day average is tested. Now he's trying to jump from there. It has a hammer appearance. It looks like it wants to go up from 86 in an upward motion. Resistance is around 90.5, so if it goes, it will go up to here. There comes a sale and again to the right it collapses. There is a downward collapse. After that, if they allow it, maybe it will continue on its way again and go towards the 93 target. So let's see if they will allow it. Because they don't allow it to go too high from time to time. There is such a thing as triggering inflation. At the same time, they do not allow it politically. But there is still such a situation. It may jump from here to the upside from the 50-day average.

When I look at the Bitcoin 4-hour chart, we are going upwards now. He made the tobo between 20 March and 23 April. It may move towards 71000 again. If not, it will try to go towards 73690. If we take the thickness of the tobo and fold it, the historical peak comes into play again. If a sloping tobo is drawn, the target looks like 72800. There is another resistance at 71262. If it does not go below the averages, it becomes a golden cross. We do not want it to collapse towards the bottom after the golden cross. If it moves to the bottom, it starts a downward trend movement. The 50-day average is the last stop as a stop for those holding an upward position. If it goes below this, things will be troublesome again. For those in a sell position, 67400 is the last stop. It continues above 67200. It seems to me that we need to stop then. Still, it's up to you to decide, of course. I don't know how much damage you can withstand on a personal basis.

Ethereum lingers in its current area on the weekly chart. There is a triangle here, like a double peak connecting the peaks. There were 3050's below, they broke, I thought they would go further. It seems to be returning from 2750, but it will still struggle inside this triangle. Once you convert the chart into a log, it's a different story. You can think of it this way: it won't go into more detail in the diary. Because it will complete the tobo, that is, there is a head and a left shoulder, we need a right shoulder. To become the right shoulder, it must first go up one level. It needs to test the 3620s. Then comes the sales. The declines are tried to be kept at bay. There is some coming and going there, buyer-seller struggle. If the chart breaks after the fight, give your hand to the 4100 level as soon as 3650 - 3700 is crossed in the upward direction. A bowl forms starting in mid-March. In such a case, the bowl seems to be completed in May. We will look, we will see what happens and what ends. We need some more time.

Euro - dollar came down. So it's almost approaching 105. It is trying to stabilize around 1.06, below the averages. When you combine and extend the tops of 1.1143 and 1.0981, the falling trend should be crossed. It does not fly away as soon as it is passed. Because it will go something like this. For the upward movement to reach 1.0975, some time must pass. In such a case, you will see tobo formation here. When he said he would cut interest rates, he weakened the euro. There would be an interest rate cut in the dollar. It will weaken the dollar, here it will take the euro - dollar up. But there was no interest rate cut in the dollar. On the contrary, when the interest rate cut in the euro started to be discussed, it went down from 1.10 to 1.098. It's about to push 1.05 again. Because a large horizontal band has formed since the beginning of 2023. This may only turn upwards if the FED cuts interest rates or something.

Judging by GBP - USD, it too turned into a separate disaster. But right now it looks like a hammer. It has gone a long way from the average, and has come down a lot. It broke off after traveling horizontally since December 2023. If it were folded down, it would already be around 1.22. There seems to be a sign of recovery in the short term. It has a hammer appearance. Maybe it could cause a reaction in GBP.

In such a situation, if we look at the daily chart to see what the situation is like in GBP - Jpy, the weakening in GBP brought the price back towards the 50-day average. 193.54 could not be exceeded in the last exit. It returned down from 192.90. Now we are at 190, if there is a break, there is a journey towards 188. Currently, the bowl, which started at the end of November 2023 and ended in January 2024, has not continued and increased. So he goes whining. He was in a mesmerized mood, he couldn't break away. So, it could not go towards 199 with consecutive candles. He tried it in March and failed after the second candle. Now here's the thing. So a downward reversal would be annoying. Because in such a case, if we draw a line connecting the bottoms, it means that this line is breaking downwards. This kind of break brings a sale, so be careful about this. If it suddenly goes down to 187 levels, if this place is pierced, then a big break will occur.

The situation in wheat has moved upwards on the hourly chart in the short term. World wheat prices continue to decline from 770 levels. It comes here from numbers around 1200.

Cotton was supposed to become more expensive, but it has become cheaper. We fell into the 77 - 90 band again. When it is on the lower side of the band, the reaction comes. He wrapped himself in a horizontal area and continues like that.

The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.

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