Sirwin
Sirwin

My Thoughts on Current Markets-107


Bitcoin is experiencing active days again. We see bitcoin coming back to the old peak. Of course, they are pushing Ethereum up in the same way. But it hasn't reached the new peak yet. Bitcoin couldn't reach the new peak either, but it's hovering around it.

Nasdaq apparently reached a historical peak with the 20-day average at 18109, the 50-day average at 17826, and the price at 18464. Then it was given downstairs, it didn't go away, it came back. It was held at the 50-day average. It is stuck between approximately 18425 and 17800. If it goes down it will go to 17128, if it goes up it will go to around 19000. Whichever direction it breaks, under normal circumstances, the position is kept in that direction, or if the existing position breaks upwards, you still maintain your position if you have an upward position. Under normal circumstances, when this technically breaks upwards, it is expected to go up at least as much as the horizontal area thickness. Currently support is at 18109 at the 20-day average as I mentioned. It turned up from the 50-day average and did not let go down. So, after such a fall, if it were to go down, it should have spilled out with a bang, it didn't spill much, it stayed there. In other words, a counter-rising move occurred around 18000. Whichever way it moves, there is a chance of making money in that direction. There is a room to move up or down by about 700 points. If it goes up, it will exceed 19000. If it goes down, the target will be around 17000.

There was also a sharp sell-off in Dow Jones from top to bottom. But there is a recovery in the 50-day average. The 50-day average was at 38706, we drilled the 20-day average and it was at 39135. There is currently a price stuck between two averages, that is, between 38706 and 39135. I know the peak is here at 39889. After peaking, the short-term double peaked. It made a bottom between the double top and broke the support. But he didn't let himself go downwards. There is support here around 38450. It last decreased to 38559. Trying to hold on around the average. If it goes down from here then it will drift. So if 38470 does not hold, then it will drift towards 38000, then if it goes down. So I don't think it's very likely, but there could be a shoulder to shoulder here. So, if it lingers around 39000 and breaks downwards, it could be the left shoulder. So right now I don't think it's likely. So, maybe there will be a short-term sale, but in order for there to be a huge decrease, interest rates must be increased again.

Currently, there is discussion about when the interest rates will decrease, let alone increase them, there is an expectation in the market about when the decrease will start and when the interest rates will be reduced. So predictions are made in that direction. That's why he can stay in his current area. He may complete another bowl, you never know. Then they lift it again and it goes up again. This time it may go towards around 41000. It is currently at its average support of 50 days. If it goes above 20 days, it will move towards 40000 again. Then he can try once again towards the historical peak. A break to the downside would reveal numbers like 38000 or slightly lower at 37750.

DAX kept going back and forth to historical peaks, two sales came and it recovered. Currently the 20-day average is at 18127. The 50-day average is at 17673. It is currently holding above the 20-day average. If it slides, if there is a move down, then look at the 50-day average. If the 20-day exponential support goes, it will drift towards the 50-day exponential. The price tests there. The bowl in the 14630 - 16345 band folded upwards and reached the target. Now he is lingering in his area, alone above the average. In other words, there is a market that has been going up since 15000, staying above the averages. He tried 50 days once. If the 20-day limit is broken, it tries the 50-day limit one more time. The upward trend is still above the 20-day average.

As far as I know, 2353 was seen in Gold. In other words, after breaking from the 2150 - 2200 horizontal area, the 20-day average is at 2221. 2150 - 2200 increased the horizontal area upwards. Then, as we continued on our way, there was a possibility of a flag in the upward direction, this time in the 2200 - 2250 region. So, the range of 2025 - 2195 is the stick of the flag, and if you go up as much as the stick, the target will be 2353. And it came fast. It came very fast. So, I wouldn't be surprised if there is some rest around 2350 - 2375. The long-term trend is still upward. Because the FED still has interest rate cuts. It has now created a kind of resistance within the upward trend channel. We'll see if it's a coincidence or not. As a trend, we are above the averages. It went in an upward direction. However, it may be necessary to give them a chance to rest a little. So he might be a little tired. This does not mean that the trend has completely reversed, but it turned out well. He can rest a little, consolidation is normal.

Silver finally hit 28, passing the 26 threshold. The trend is up, it bounced off the 20-day average when it was around 24.5, and passed the 26 threshold upwards. Now, this horizontal area can go up to 30 floors. There has been a huge tobo since May 2023. There is a semicircle here. If a $5.5 bowl doubles up, it goes towards 31.5. But normally there is a peak around $30. This is how it is on the daily chart, above the averages. We came to 28.09. He couldn't go below the 50-month average, he couldn't go below 22 easily. Of course, there is a 4-year average here. If it moves upwards, the medium-term target should be considered as 35 dollars. This is also the 61.8% target level of the major decline. In time, if given the opportunity, he can go there after a while. Maybe the time that silver and silver investors have been waiting for may have come.

The target for Brent is around 93. A large bowl has been forming here since October 2023. So, if you think of 94 - 95 as the top, 72.5 - 73 on the down side, that is, 73.95, this is a bowl of approximately 22 dollars. If it explodes upwards, it will go towards 117, 115. But will they allow that too? It's not that much. Because when this explodes upward, it affects inflation. In other words, it uses inflation as an excuse to go up. It disrupts the fight against inflation. But I still think this dish can be completed. Because there is a tobo formation between October 2023 and April 2024. If it goes up that much, he showed 92.36 as the target. That's the problem right now. The hill at 92.36 caused trouble when approaching here. But there it is above average. The trend is currently still pushing upwards.

If we look at GBP - USD it is in a horizontal area between 1.25 - 1.28. If it goes up, it targets 1.31. If it breaks down, then the Bank of England has to cut interest rates without the FED doing anything for this to go down. So sterling must lose value. I think they balance it here around the averages. It seems to me that they will move it in the 1.25 - 1.28 area.

GBP - JPY that's another story, it was still climbing. There was a sale, but it seems to be climbing again. He returned and could not go above 198 again. It returned from 193.5 but did not go below. It remained above the 20 and 50-day averages. The bowl formed between November 2023 and January 2024 and the handle formed in February 2024 could not be folded higher. The handle folded itself up, but this bowl could not. But there is still time. It can go further. If the movement that starts from the top of 193.54 and bottoms at 190.7 is completed as a bowl formation, it will double itself. So then the price goes towards 197. So there is an above average probability. The downside story happens in a way that goes below the averages. Then the rally was over. Because the line connecting the bottoms is also broken downwards. Such a move would be an attempt to break the long-term trend line in a downward direction. Then it's like when sales revenue goes below the average. It looks like it's still going upwards.

Bitcoin did not fall below the 50-day average. Resistance is around 73000. The target may be 82000's. It is currently trending upwards again, above the 20-day average. The 20-day and 50-day moving averages are pushing the price up. Additionally, when you combine the bottoms, the target appears to be the 82000 - 84000 band with the trend support. If you look at the chart for 4 hours, it made a Golden Cross in the short term and again crossed the 20-day and 50-day upward trend. If it breaks the supports downwards, there is 62260 as the main support below. Otherwise, bitcoin will continue to climb to 80000 and above.

I can say that the resistance in Ethereum is 4100. It went fast last time. I think the price will wait for the 20-day average to come up a little and get closer to it. Looks like we'll be spending some more time around here. It may then go towards 4350 - 4400. While it was approaching the averages in the downward sales, the buyer came. Now it is stuck between 3000 - 4100. Now it is trying to move up once again, but I don't think it will break $5000 right away. A seller may come again towards 4000. This jam area requires a little more time.

The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.

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