1. South Korea and Margin Call
The sharp movements in futures and options trading in South Korea have begun to deplete investors' margin accounts. Currently, this is a serious situation affecting approximately 3-3.5% of the population.
2. Technical Breakdown in the S&P 500
The S&P 500 lost its first significant bottom after its strong rally. This break has disrupted the short-term market structure. It is now observed that there is a higher concentration of short positions and sellers in resistance zones, while buyers are weakening in support zones.
3. Concentration
Everyone, believing themselves to be the smartest in the market, concentrated on the same theme and the same companies. The rally largely revolved around a single theme. Therefore, when selling begins, there aren't enough buyers in support zones. This is because many investors took positions during the rise due to FOMO (Fear of Missing Out).
4. Buying Every Dip
Due to the influence of current government policies, investors have long viewed every pullback as a buying opportunity. However, each dip has been bought, leading to renewed selling pressure in the market. This situation delayed the formation of a healthy bottom and made price discovery difficult.
5. FOMO Effect
The recent rally we experienced was truly historic. Many participants who missed the rise entered the market even at the smallest correction. As a result, a serious bubble formed in prices. We can consider today's movement as the process of clearing this bubble.
I don't know exactly where the market will turn around. I increased my cash position when the first bottom break occurred. Now, I continue to take risks in a controlled and gradual manner with that cash.
I've noticed some nice setups emerging, especially in the hardware and semiconductor sectors. The space theme also took its share from this selling wave. I'm closely following the pullbacks in quality companies and trying to evaluate the areas I deem appropriate.
No one can pinpoint the bottom level. The market is a system entirely built on uncertainties. Our job as investors is not to predict the future, but to manage probabilities correctly. My focus is on accumulating the right companies at reasonable prices, gradually, without disrupting risk management.