Every year, right on time, the same narrative comes back: “Sell in May.”
This time is no different, with analysts and articles starting to talk about possible declines for Bitcoin.
But I can’t help wondering: does this kind of logic still make sense today?
Because if we look at Bitcoin’s history, reality is far less linear than it seems.
There have been years where rallies started in May, and others where a crash began.
There’s no real pattern, no fixed rule.
Especially today, Bitcoin doesn’t follow the calendar, but rather:
- global liquidity
- monetary policy
- the cycle phase (post-halving, euphoria, distribution…)
In short, Bitcoin is moving more and more like a proper financial asset, and less like a “seasonal” market.
And there’s another important shift: the growing presence of institutional players.
Today, they drive most of the trend, while retail tends to come in later, often during the final stages of euphoria.
All of this makes the market more structured… but also more tied to macroeconomic dynamics.
That’s exactly why relying on an old saying like “Sell in May” can be more misleading than useful.
In my opinion, the real mistake is trying to find simple patterns in a market that is becoming more complex year after year.
And while everyone is watching the calendar… the market is probably looking somewhere else. But this is my personal opinion. 😜
