I’ve been following the data from the blockchain, or so-called on-chain, very carefully. And I’ve noticed a pattern. Most of the people asking questions like “Are we at the bottom yet?”
“Is now the time to buy Bitcoin?”
The answer from the available on-chain data is unequivocally,”Not yet,” but the signs are promising!
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Galaxy Research Warns Future Bottom is Not Imminent; Key Metrics Pending
According to Galaxy Research, who studies the past bitcoin cycles, there are thirteen historically reliable metrics that indicate a cycle bottom, only 4 of these metrics have been seen so far at current market conditions.
Alex Thorn, director of research at Galaxy, explains this period is barely 8-months into a downturn and traditionally cycle bottom comes 12–13 months following the market peak.
Currently, we still don’t have all three of these necessary ingredients for cycle bottom:
- Price is not below the on-chain basis
- Not all holders are holding on to aggregate losses
- Sustained loss taking hasn’t been seen
(These 3 conditions have appeared at every bull-market trough of any note. – The Bitcoin Genesis Block )
Here’s a snapshot of other on-chain metrics that look set to improve on Bitcoin's path towards its inevitable next bottom:
### 3 On-Chain Metrics That Still Need to Move Lower
#### 1. NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit / Loss)
Current: 0.11 (zone of Hope / Fear)
November 2022: -0.24 (Capitulation)
March 2020: Negative (Capitulation)
Currently, NUPL is 0.11, which falls in the “Hope/Fear” zone but is not yet in the negative territory typical of deepest parts of previous bear markets (Capitulation). The “Capitulation” zone is necessary to truly bottom out previous bear cycles.
#### 2. MVRV Z-Score
Current: 0.22 (close to fair value, but not undervalued)
November 2022: -0.286 (Undervalued / Market bottom)
March 2020: -0.20 (Undervalued / Market bottom)
Bitcoin is currently trading almost at fair value and nowhere near the previously encountered undervalued price range for cycle bottoms. MVRV can turn deeply negative, signalling buying opportunity of historic proportions!
#### 3. Puell Multiple
Current: 0.51 ( Approaching bottom range)
Historically: < 0.5 is a strong indicator for miner capitulation and the following cycle bottom.
The puell multiple is a bit closer now, however we have not hit it in the low 0.5 and under, which usually means the capitulation period will continue yet longer!
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Benjamin Cowen Predicts Bitcoin bottom ~Q4 2026 ~ $44,000
Benjamin Cowen’s July 2026 research report said the framework is going to bottom check: Bitcoin has recently entered into “bottom check mode” when that would be a few weeks not weeks.
Based on Cowen's math of Bitcoin season, it's predicting that by July 2026, Bitcoin will fall to a cycle low of around $44,000. It would be right between realized price ($53,000) as well as the price for people that lost money on buying Bitcoin as far back as a year, the same as realized price ($37,700) that we will get to. Cowen thinks this is similar to Bitcoin’s top in June 2019 as people’s confidence began to fade; this cycle will also be a completion through time.
With an midterm 2026, which often goes hand-in-hand with lower Bitcoin performances in the latter half of the cycle for Bitcoin. (2014-2018) etc.
The last three times this has happened in the United States history it is with midterm and election cycle .
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Where are We Likely to Be
``
Scenario MVRV Range Price Range
Galaxy base case 0.75 to 0.86 $40,000 to $46,000
Cowen projection ... ~$44,000
Harsh washout 0.56 to 0.70 $30,000 to $37,000
Shallow outcome Near 1.0 $51,000 to $54,000
``
While some banks forecast a better situation than this in their own outlook. Standard Chartered is predicting at current market conditions bitcoin bottoms out at $59,000, before rocketing to $100k by year-end. Meanwhile, NYDIG suggests it’s the Bitcoin’s best bear cycle and current conditions the low.
Notwithstanding the differences between these three firms all of these parties are somewhat aligned on the fact that, at minimum:
1. The bottom is somewhere this year
2. We’re much closer to the bottom than a new high
3. Another Bull market is on its way!!
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So, What does This all mean for you?
The data shows, beyond a doubt, we are on the road to the bottom - but it hasn't quite been there yet.
The indicators tell us that we are in the final stages of this downturn. They show movement towards the lowest prices and volumes Bitcoin has experienced, but not to historic levels. We’re talking good conditions for DCA, however the smart traders will have their eyes on the Q4 2026 data for optimal entries.
My advice?
Stay focused. Don't panic.
And continue to monitor these on-chain indicators.
Because, if one thing’s for sure: Bitcoin cycles are predictable patterns.
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What's your take on the current crypto market? Join the discussion below and let us know!
