- Short term
- Long term
As I promised in the previous article, here comes the ETH version of it. If you haven't read this first article, I highly recommend you do so as all crypto markets are related. Let's not wait time and start already.
4h - 240 min
The first shot we take is on short term but with an important zoom out. It allows to appreciate the ETH broke a long term descending trend line built since the beginning of the bear market months ago.
When we close up we can appreciate how easily it went threw long term resistances to climb quickly until it reached its first true one, Kijun W. During the whole movement (referring to the upward parallel channel), it is really nice to see how Kijun 4h lead the way and allowed the price to have a strong upward path. It only broke it twice.
First one was on 8th of January and it only came back to refuel power at Ichimoku's cloud just before it had to cross that long term trend line. Second one is happening right now, and hopefully it is to refuel before strongly attacking Kijun W awaiting on the road.
You may see the "Stop loss" radius I've drawn, I'll come back to this one in the conclusion.
On the daily view the movement is even more impressive. After months of downward parallel channel, we finally can assist to a strong break up. The first break threw has been limited by the cloud, which isn't the case now. That may confirm the new trend. But as we're facing a strong resistance upon Kijun W, I expect a possible fall back to the cloud daily/Tenkan W for strengthening before pushing up again.
Again, the stop loss will be discussed in the conclusion of the article.
On this time unit we have two points to consider, first being the technical drawings. ETH has been closing the descending trend line built from its creation. It is still limited by it, but taking the chances again to try its chances.
Second is limitation imposed by Ichimoku. As it failed to cross the trend line last week, we can see that Kijun W was possible the cause this was difficult for it. It opposed a strong resistance, and as Tenkan W is still on a negative slope, we still don't have an uptrend on this TU.
But if it succeeds to break up, next limitation will be opposed by SSB W at 222 $ and a cloud that is so thin that any cross would be just a piece of cake.
On this time unit, ETH is too young for Ichimoku to be used. That's a shame because as all of my early followers know, I love to work with it. But what we can see is that the price is fighting again against the downward trend line, and Tenkan M is flat meaning the market is in high hesitation on the long term movement, still not decided wether it should climb up or dive deep.
We are at the moment facing a new possibility of a long term uptrend, a bullrun. I wouldn't be surprised if we have a pullback to Tenkan W around 150 $ to refuel power before the next step that would be to reach Kijun W at 178 $. The first entry was the crossing of the long daily downward trend line. Second was the crossing of Tenkan W, and next will be crossing of Kijun W. If it succeeds, the next stop should arrive at SSB W but should not oppose strong resistance when we arrive there as the cloud is so thin.
About the stop loss drown on the graph. As for BTC, I calculated candle wicks and came to a percentage of error the price is allowed to make. This percentage was the same and reached 3%. So I decided to fix my stop loss 3% under SSB 4h at 150 $, as this would be the invalidation of the short term bull. And if the bullrun goes on and is confirmed on the weekly pattern, I'll have to recalculate the error allowed and place it this time on the daily time unit. But what is interesting again is that this percentage came out to be again corresponding to Kijun D ! (How I love Ichimoku !)
ETH vs BTC ?
And this is just a reminder why I prefer to play long on ETH before BTC. Those two move together, but ETH at the moment keeps a higher potentiel...
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