Bitcoin dropped from roughly $110K at the start of November to around $91K by November 28. This is a drawdown of over 20% with the monthly low at $82.6K on November 21, 2025. And it made November 2025 one of Bitcoin’s worst months since the last cycle washouts of 2018-2019. In addition this marks the worst November percentage loss since 2019. This fall did not just come from nowhere as it followed a technical damage of a death cross on November 15 when the 50 day SMA crossed below the 200 day SMA. This was a classic trend reversal signal that is usually watched by macro funds. As a result of this scenario the November candle closed deep in red and this reinforced the idea of a regime shift from euphoria to risk off.
The technical damage was not alone as markets also worried that lower interest rates plus an AI bubble scare could signal late cycle instability rather than an easy money nirvana. The result was a broad derisking across equities and crypto, not just Bitcoin. And this derisking also drove prices further down. Let's dive dip and analyze the rocky November.
Why this crash is different
Reports show that roughly 17% of the total 21M Bitcoin is now held by governments and companies which also include ETFs and corporate treasuries. Also, ETFs alone hold over 7% of supply which is a sharp jump when compared to the pre 2024 levels. This concentration of Bitcoin holdings by a few entities means that there is less Bitcoin sitting on exchanges which reduces free float liquidity. And the sell offs that we see are more about leveraged traders and marginal flows not long term holders long term selling.
Now, it is important to note that ETF and treasury Bitcoin hoarding creates supply squeezes that magnify both dips and future rallies. In simple terms, since there is less Bitcoin sitting in exchanges, it means that orders books are thin and any movement is amplified (including dips and future rallies) as the price hunts for available liquidity or as buyers chase higher prices due to demand.
The $87.9K bounce and what the market told us
After the November 21 low near $82K, Bitcoin staged a technical rebound to about $87.9K on November 24, 2025. After this, the Fear and greed index fell to below 20 signalling extreme fear which was maintained as price bounced. This signalled classic capitulation behaviour.
During this period 165K Bitcoin was withdrawn from Coinbase over the same weekend signalling the largest plunge in exchange balances since the FTX aftermath. This is usually a strong sign of long term accumulation on the dip. Analysts cited in Forklog framed the move as a technical bounce within a larger consolidation band between $85K and $90K not a dead cat. This bounce also managed to flush leveraged longs while spot demand persisted.
There is no doubt that prices looked ugly before this bounce and the behaviour of coins leaving exchanges, extreme fear and value buyers stepping in caused prices to bounce back from the lows.
A rewind and blast from the past
In June 9-14, 2025, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs logged five straight days of net inflows totalling over $1.3B even as war related headlines briefly knocked Bitcoin down 3%. However, by the end of the week Bitcoin had recovered to around $105K, less than 6% below its then ATH near $112K. Reports show that Wallstreet used this macro fear as a buying opportunity not as a reason to dump their holdings. Fast forward to October 2025, Bitcoin printed a new all time high around $125-126K and the weekly ETF inflows hit $3.2b. This became the second largest weekly spot ETF inflows since launch.
The lesson here is that Bitcoin spot ETF flows are pro cyclical. This means that they surge into strength and dry up into weakness. However, prior to 2025 episodes show that once the tide turns, inflows can ramp from hundreds of millions to multiple billions in weeks. Saw, higher inflows follow good upward moves and dry up when there are bad downward price movements.
Why the worst November since 2019 can be bullish for 2026
November’s 2025 Bitcoin price drop of 17-20% puts it in the same bucket as the brutal November 2018 and the weak November 2019. Both of these preceded new macro uptrends within 1 to 2 years. Current data providers describe November 2025 as the worst November since at least 2019, and they also highlight that the sell off cleared over leveraged participants. This opened a potential buying window with recovery targets back towards the $92K-$101K band. Just yesterday, the price pumped back above $90K but fell back to around $86K a day. It seems like this time it has failed to break and stay in the band mentioned. So, for now we wait and see.
ETFs, governments and treasuries are already hoarding >20% of total Bitcoin supply when combined. There is therefore a proven precedent for 2025 where ETF inflows of $1.3-3.2B in Bitcoin helped catapult Bitcoin to fresh ATHs. This may also be the case again.
Final thoughts and conclusion
If November’s capitulation holds the $80-82K as the cycle support, and ETF flows flip back to sustained net inflows of >$200-300M for several days; then it becomes possible for the price of Bitcoin to bounce back up. The combination of reduced free float and renewed institutional demand also makes a retest and likely break above the $126K all time high in 2026 possible. This is all not guaranteed but there is a chance it will happen as macro shocks, regulatory hits or prolonged ETF outflows could delay or even invalidate a further all time high in 2026 and beyond.
We should watch out for the continuous holding of the $80-82K support level and the behaviour of the price in the recovery band between $92-101K. These bands are more likely to confirm the direction of price movement. We should also watch U.S. spot ETFs net flows of which a positive shift to positive weekly totals can signal a June and October 2025 like bounce. And finally, if there is continuous decrease in balances in exchanges, it would signal that long term holders are accumulating and staking for a bull run.
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References
Cointelegraph – “Bitcoin price down 20%, stablecoin market cap down $2B: November in charts” https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-down-stablecoin-november-in-charts (cointelegraph.com)
Whale‑Alert / Market recap – “Bitcoin falls over 20% in November; rare ‘Shark’ pattern flags possible drop to $41K while recovery targets $92K–$101K” https://whale-alert.io/stories/a364dec2f2f4/Bitcoin-falls-over-20-in-November-recovery-targets-92K101K-as-market-stabilizes (whale-alert.io)
Forklog – “Bitcoin rebounds to $87,000, but the market remains in extreme fear” https://forklog.com/en/bitcoin-rebounds-to-87000-but-the-market-remains-in-extreme-fear (forklog.com)
CoinCentral – “Bitcoin ETFs Attract $1.3B in 5 Days Despite Rising War Fears” https://coincentral.com/bitcoin-etfs-attract-1-3b-in-5-days-despite-rising-war-fears (coincentral.com)
CoinCentral – “Bitcoin Price: BTC Breaks $125,000 All-Time High as Record ETF Inflows Surge” https://coincentral.com/bitcoin-price-btc-breaks-125000-all-time-high-as-record-etf-inflows-surge (coincentral.com)
