TA Master - Short, Mid and Long term forecast for Bitcoin

I avoid using too many complicated indicators and jargon in my analysis, so it is simple to understand and follow for everyone.

In this analysis for Bitcoin I have used simple trend lines based on the lower end of the candles, 50 day moving average, 200 day moving average and support/ resistance bands linked to previous periods of high volumes.

I have created all charts below through my account in www.tradingview.com




For the short term view I have considered the daily chart with the target movement for the coming 2 months i.e. Nov-Dec 2019.

Here one interesting occurrence is the recent Death Cross formation which occurs when the 200 MA crosses the 50 MA. Some people expect it to indicate a bull run, but I think in the short term it will lead us towards a correction. This will be driven by the trend lines of lower lows and lower highs which will converge somewhere around the support band of $7,300 which can go as low as $6,200. We recently bounced off the $7,300 level and once we hit this mark again we will potentially go close to $6,000

Keep in mind that this kind of correction will be a perfect buy level if you have been thinking of entering the BTC market.




For the mid term view for the next 6-8 months, I expect us to climb on the upward trend line from start of 2019 and go uptown the resistance band of $13,200 to $14,800. We had previously been rejected by this band during June 2019. This time I think as the market sentiment will be more bullish consider the BTC reward halving which will happen during May 2020, I expect us to consolidate between the $13K to $15K range.





For the long term view I expect us to keep climbing on the trend line I showed previously in the Mid Term analysis.

Many people have very high expectations form BTC during 2021-2022 period with some suggesting the new all time high to go close to $100,000 to $1,000,000.

I have a more modest target of $36K to $40K, this has been based on the previous bull run which accelerated from a brief consolidation at $4K to $20K, making a 5X move. Applying the same 5X factor to current trigger point at $8K it is expected to run up to $40K.

What happens by 2022 will also be governed largely by the level of BTC adoption in our day to day lives.

I would like to end by saying that if you intend to make use of this analysis please do your own research as well and make any decision keeping in mind your risk tolerance. 

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