Bitcoin closed September near $83,560. On Sunday, October 4, it rose as high as $86,771. That is only a small step below the $87,177 peak from last Friday. Many traders now want to know if Bitcoin can break through $87,000 and stay above it.

Why Traders Love October

The crypto community calls this month "Uptober" because Bitcoin has often done well in it. According to Coinglass monthly return data, Bitcoin ended higher in 10 of the last 13 Octobers. The median gain was 12.7%.

Last year the pattern broke. October 2025 ended down 3.7%, the first losing October since 2018. So the history looks good, but it never guarantees anything.

The Math Behind $94,000

Many people are talking about $94,000, and the math is simple. If Bitcoin gains 12% from its September close of $83,560, the price lands near $94,000. The report from Bitcoin.com News points to this same number.

Bettors are a little more careful. Polymarket gives Bitcoin about a 39% chance of reaching $100,000 before 2027.

Price Levels to Watch

These are the levels that matter most right now:

• $87,000 to $87,500: This is the wall sellers have defended. Bitcoin touched $87,177 on Friday, but it closed that day at $84,304.
• $88,000: A daily close above this level could open the road to $90,000 and later to $95,000 or $96,000.
• $84,000 to $84,300: This is the first area of support.
• $82,000 to $82,500: This is the main floor. A daily close under it could bring $78,000 to $80,000 back into view.

Wall Street Is Still Buying, But Slower

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs took in about $6.3 billion during the third quarter. About $2.7 billion of that came in September. October started with $134.4 million in net inflows.

The last full week was much quieter. ETFs saw about $83 million in flows from September 28 to October 2, compared with $2.39 billion the week before. Large buyers have not left. They just seem less eager at these prices.

Daily Bitcoin ETF flows By Farside Investors

What Could Spoil the Month

October has a busy calendar, and a few events could move the price fast.

• October 14: The U.S. inflation report arrives. You can check the release schedule on the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI page.
• October 27 and 28: The Federal Reserve holds its next meeting. The dates are on the official Fed calendar.
• October 31: This is the creditor deadline for Mt Gox. Its wallets still hold 34,388 BTC, worth about $2.9 billion. If that coin is sent to creditors, some of it could reach the market. You can read more in this Mt Gox wallet report.

Oil prices and tension around the Strait of Hormuz also keep inflation worries alive.

Last Friday showed how fragile the market can be. September payrolls grew by only 29,000 jobs, and unemployment stayed at 4.2%. Bitcoin jumped to $87,177 on that news, and then sellers pushed it back down by the close.

The Real Test Is Holding $87,000

Touching $87,000 is no longer big news. Bitcoin has done it before. What matters now is whether it can close above that level and stay there. Strong October history, steady ETF demand and a clear target at $94,000 help the bulls. A heavy calendar and a stubborn price wall help the bears. The next few weeks should show which side is stronger.

Disclaimer: Above content is meant to be informational in nature and should not be interpreted as investment advice. Trading, buying or selling cryptocurrencies should be considered a high-risk investment and every reader is advised to do their own research before making any decisions.