Unveiling the Bitcoin ETF Saga: SEC Approval and Price Volatility

By tonyboss | Crypto NFTs and Tips | 19 Dec 2023

The hidden danger in this Bitcoin ETF approval is now Bitcoin's price. It's breaking out big news of a pending Bitcoin ETF being approved any day now, and of course, when the price is one of the least important things, let's look at it because the Bitcoin price just passed $40,000 now. It's been a while since we saw that last time; we were at this number about March of 2022, so a couple of months away from 2 years, but here we are.

Analysis of Bitcoin Price Movements

Why are there other reasons why the price is rising? Not just the ETF, but why there is actual danger with the ETF that you should be aware of. I just want to inform you real quick when the price starts surging like this. You'll also see that a lot of people start talking about Bitcoin on social media; they like to jump in and, you know, go with the wave.

In June 2022, fresh data indicates the Bitcoin value should you purchase now was at $19,000. In the next month, in July 2022, do these charts imply it's time to buy Bitcoin? The price was at $19,000; then, in October 2022, will Bitcoin move to $12,000 or $30,000? The great crypto reset occurred on November 11, 2022. The price of Bitcoin was $16,000 at the time. The data in January 2023 tells us it's time to buy Bitcoin, which was at $20,000; another piece of January 2023 breaking data says the FED pivot is here; do this now, which means Bitcoin was at $16,700 in March of this year, 2023.

Factors Affecting Price

Bitcoin was pumping by an hour's weight; the price was $26,000, and in May, Fed data shows they control Bitcoin, and what the Fed's doing is that you'll know when to buy. The price was $26,000 all right, so that's in a short period. All right now, what I was talking about with the Fed telling us when to buy Bitcoin is because global liquidity is the main driver of these markets. Right now, there's an oblique Africa, for example, has 80% of transactions under $1,000, and Central America, El Salvador, and maybe Argentina are embracing this for various reasons, but it is global equity that is driving the markets.

As the Fed tightens its grip on the markets, how could the markets be rising while everyone is focusing on it? You want to look at the global M2, the global monetary supply.

So, you have to think bigger than just the United States, people say, but what about the regulation of the United States? It's bigger than just the United States now; the other thing we're seeing because of this massive monetary expansion, massive global inflation, and runaway Central Bank, uh, spending is a flight to hard assets all over the world. Gold just broke out to a new all-time high. I've been talking about stocks continuing to go up.

Speculation Surrounding ETF Approval

There have been numerous reports of ETF approval. I've talked about it; you've heard it a lot, so let me tell you what you haven't heard. First and foremost, yes, there are many Bitcoin ETFs that could launch by the end of the year. There are at least nine asset management firms that have proposals in the SEC to get them converted. Black Rock, which is, of course, like a semi-arm of the government; you know, they'll probably get that approved. Wisdom Tree, Valkyrie, and plenty of others.

Demand for Bitcoin ETFs is soaring because the SEC's next deadline to decide on a spot ETF is January 1. Everyone believes that the world will rush in as soon as this ETF is approved, and supply is extremely limited. Nobody wants to sell because they expect higher prices. The Bitcoin holders don't appear to be interested in selling into the strength of Bitcoin's price; many people believe that as soon as the price rises, they'll sell, but what we can see is the exact opposite; the amount of Bitcoin in circulation that hasn't moved in over a year is at an all-time high.

Illiquidity and Potential Price Movements

Indeed, over the weekend, it reached an all-time high of 70.5%. This increases the lack of liquidity in the circulating supply of the amount that's available for sale now. Of course, this creates a positive feedback loop on an increasing asset price because it takes less net new to move the price upwards in the future, depending on supply and demand.

I don't think I've ever seen an asset this large, about $800 billion right now, have such high illiquidity while the price is aggressively moving forward, but I want you to be prepared for a possible pullback because I believe this Bitcoin ETF, if or when it's approved, will be one of those buy the rumor sell the news events.

If the SEC approves one of the numerous spot Bitcoin ETFs that are currently available, what does that mean that investors are buying now based on the rumor that it will get approved? When the news finally leaks, I believe the price could drop. In fact, if one gets approved, I believe it will likely be the first of at least four or five to get approved at the same time.