Sirwin
Sirwin

Fuel moves everything - including crypto.

By lukejoseph1102 | Crypto Lalaland | 25 Apr 2024


"If one tries to think about history, it seems to me - it's like looking at a range of mountains. And the first time you see them, they look one way. But then time changes, the pattern of light shifts. Maybe you've moved slightly, your perspective has changed. The mountains are the same, but they look very different." - Robert Harris

The ultimate commodity

It has been a long time since I write about other commodities aside from Bitcoin and other crypto currency. Well, maybe it is time we all should be concern how the external markets are affecting the trades on crypto currency. Just like the quote stated, we have been staring at the same mountain these whole time, and as we progress, the mountain looks different. As it should as we progress in our experience as investors in crypto - the fact still stand, it will be affected by external factors that is the current microeconomic and the overall market of the world.

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As you all know, everything is intertwined. Some are good, and mostly bad to be honest. Take the war for an example, war is bad indeed for obvious reason, but in the looming time of war eruption, oil and gas prices skyrockets. The reason being is that, war machines need their fuels. That is why there are few obvious reason why nation wedges wars - to prop up the oil prices and so the elites can be more rich than they ever were. I'm not into politics, but, these are the type of factors that affects the prices of everything in market. Like I said, mostly bad. There are good, but mostly bad. Then again, I might be looking at the different side of the mountain, no?

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The sudden crash of Bitcoin is without a doubt is in relation to the escalation of possible war in between Israel and Iran. With the surge of oil and gas prices, Bitcoin mining will be much more expensive - we could potentially see a huge sell off for the miners to accommodate for future electricity bills. War is never good. People die. And electricity bills skyrocket in relation to the increase of energy prices.

In tune with that, gold reach an All time high. Pretty obvious why, people think its the end of the world, and buying gold is a good hedge against another inflation breakout due to ongoing wars and future wars.

What this has to do with us seriously?


You do notice that the price of Bitcoin capitulated in the past week right? Let me repeat, war = high fuel price, high fuel price = high electricity bills, high electricity bills = expensive BTC mining expenditures, expensive BTC mining expenditures = increase of sell pressure, increase of sell pressure = increase of capitulating rate. Although of course, as the war stand stills, and the scares going away, the price of BTC bounced again. A fickle market indeed - one that could take a big swing either way.

The thing is, although many will doubt this. If BTC were to capitulate, right before the Bitcoin Halving event, it will send a huge ripple across the world's crypto user. As Bull is no longer in command, Bear will take over. In times of uncertainty, crypto will capitulate. Good news, for the moment is that the BTC halving event has been behind us since yesterday and the overall outlook is quite green. I am sure everyone now is expecting the price to skyrocket. Well, to be honest, crypto is filled with expectations and most of the time it failed to meet that very thing which is to be expected. Quite expected result isn't it - the irony in it. But, as everyone else in crypto, I stayed hopeful. But vigilant. Hopeful nonetheless.


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Let me be honest with you though, reading charts are like star reading, it is only as good for prediction, but not really a future outcome. And you can get so much right, before getting one wrong that ultimately will rekt you. Admittedly, numbers are logic, but only in the present. Not for prediction I must say. That is why we have event called the Black Swan, and war is one of those. As war waged is mostly emotion driven by greed of oil oligarch. And these elites will stop at nothing to pull the strings behind the monitor to get these agendas running. Nothing beats the smell of gunfire - says the merchant of death.

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Bitcoin halving will not pump the market. NOT RIGHT NOW. Like I said in my previous writing. Only when people realized that it is much harder to get Bitcoin, that the price will start to increase. Only after the day of ledger closing for corporate miners that BTC price will be re-adjusted to match their expenditures and profit margins. In short, it will take sometime before the pump happen. What we have seen thus so far, is people being people. People buy hypes. People do the pumps. And people do the dumps. By far, the price metrics leading to Bitcoin halving are hoax driven by emotion and is sustainable. That is why it's capitulating as you can see these past few weeks.

What do I expect moving forward?


To be honest, my guess is as good as yours. I have no idea. But the war is coming, has been coming. They are the epitome of black swan events we have been witnessing over the past few years. "Tension in between" as they called it is down right playing the possibility - so that the elites can move their money around before exposing the whole truth. No gain without collateral. With war coming, fuel prices are expected to soar. Be ready for expensive electricity bills. Be ready for another inflation and spikes in prices of utilities. Of course it will not be the end of the world like many other star readers expected, please don't harm yourselves over few prediction.

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No disrespect to those who died fighting for their flags, but how many times do we have to go through this. No one wants to go back there, why not choke the leaders who waged wars against others? Let's put that political thing aside for now, because we know war moves economic plate. With its people becoming the collateral damage.

Personally, I am looking to reposition all of my investment for better position in the coming months. I hope I will be right on the mark with my target prices, but hell, when did that ever happened. lol. But I do know one thing, these uncertainty will haunt us for a long period of time. End of the year may not cut it. Oligarch are looking to prop the fuel prices for a very long time if more war happens. What can I say, oil makes the world go round and round. I don't like it, but that is just how the world works. And the effect will reverberate into crypto currency. This is not a call for doom and gloom, as I have never been a perma-bear. But rather a story of caution - that the market still can sway in either direction before the year end. Which, has a lot of room for many many things to happen.

I am glad you reach this end of the writing, thank you very much for your kind attention and I'll see you all in the next one. Good day!

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lukejoseph1102
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