Donald Trump confirmed that the peace agreement with Iran will be signed today, Sunday, June 14. According to the U.S. President, the deal would include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to everyone. On decentralized markets, this news caused crude oil contracts (WTI) to trade at $81, a significant drop compared to average prices during the week.
Meanwhile, however, Iranian sources report that uncertainties remain regarding the timing of the signing. Therefore, these will be hours of relative tension before the eventual resolution of the event. According to what can be inferred from the post on Truth Social, the agreement would also include an attempt to recover Iranian uranium. Regarding the technical details, yesterday the Pakistani Prime Minister confirmed the need for technical talks.
Optimism from Trump – but Iran's approval is still needed
Trump’s optimism is palpable and has, at least in part, transferred to the markets. Until the U.S. President's latest statement, there was significant uncertainty even among Americans; CNBC had reported sources close to the matter speaking of a 75%-85% chance of the US signing an agreement. With the U.S. President's declaration, we should now be at or near 100%, barring any last-minute reconsiderations.
However, the point regarding the Strait of Hormuz remains unclear: Trump spoke clearly about an immediate reopening, without indicating the technical timeline for the removal of any mines. We will likely know more about this issue once the deal is officially signed. Yet, this is the most crucial matter—at least for the markets. A resumption of transit through Hormuz would prevent far more damaging effects on the energy market than what we have seen so far.
Does Polymarket still have low confidence?
Polymarket—which has several open markets on the matter—continues to show relatively low confidence. In fact, regarding the end of the U.S. naval blockade, the "yes" contracts are only at 41% for today, 50% by June 18, and 70% by June 21.
The outlook is similar for a permanent peace treaty: only 25% by Monday, June 15, 51% by the end of the month, and 60% by July 31.
The frequent sudden shifts, second thoughts, and turnarounds have clearly left an indelible mark on the minds of those trading in these prediction markets. We remind you that for Italian users, these platforms are useful only for analyzing public sentiment, as they are currently prohibited to the Italian public.
