A Week of Indecision for Bitcoin Price
Bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing a week of indecision, moving within relatively contained swings. At the time of writing, it is trading at $116,600, posting a 2.02% weekly gain after last week’s -4.29% decline.
Historical August Scenario
July closed with a +8.13% gain, marking the fourth consecutive green month and setting a new all-time high (ATH) at $123,236. Statistically, August and September have historically shown negative performance for Bitcoin—except in the third quarter (Q3) of the year following a halving (such as 2025), which has often delivered strong gains. Therefore, August could still bring surprises. In the last post-halving August in 2017, BTC recorded a +14% rally.
Daily Chart Analysis
Looking at the daily chart, Bitcoin reached its ATH of $123,236 on July 14, followed by about 15 days of price congestion until the breakdown on July 31. On that date, a series of bearish closes pushed BTC down to its 50-day simple moving average (SMA50, red line), from which it rebounded.
Support and Resistance Levels
The first significant support in the current phase lies lower, at $110,800—aligned with the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the June low ($98,240) to the July high. However, BTC didn’t test this level and reversed earlier.
After testing the SMA50, Bitcoin began a rebound, pushing back toward resistance at $117,500, where it has stalled for the past two consecutive days.
Bitcoin Stalls at $117,500 Resistance
BTC paused at resistance, retracing yesterday with a -1% daily close. On the indicators side, the rebound was signaled by the RSI, which exited oversold territory and crossed above its moving average.
However, this rebound hasn’t yet pushed RSI into overbought territory, which could open the door for another leg higher. It’s important to note that overbought conditions do not automatically imply a bearish reversal, contrary to common belief.
Short-Term Support for BTC
In the current scenario, immediate short-term support is at $114,800, which could serve as a reaction level for the ongoing corrective swing. The SMA50 will also be crucial as a key support zone, as seen previously.
Weekly Overview
On the weekly chart for 2025, BTC hit an ATH in January, then pulled back to a yearly low of $74,500 in April. From that level, the market launched the leg up to July’s ATH.
The key element to monitor is the dynamic uptrend support line (blue). Two key support levels from the April low–ATH vector are $104,400 and $98,700.
Watch the Weekly Indicator Setup
The weekly indicator setup is leaning dangerously but has not yet confirmed a full bearish crossover. A negative weekly close would trigger an exit from the bullish position initiated in April.
